Expert Analysis
12/27/24
5 min read
Bargain Shopping or Big-Game Hunting: Lessons for QB-Needy Teams This Offseason
What can the last couple of years of quarterback play tell us about this upcoming offseason?
The answer is a lot. If you’ve been paying attention, a clear theme has emerged about the best way to go shopping regarding veteran quarterback acquisitions: bargain hunting.
If you are one of the teams likely in the quarterback market this offseason—and I am looking at you right now: Titans, Raiders, Jets, Giants, and Browns—you need to strongly consider going to the discount aisle this offseason if you choose the veteran route instead of the NFL Draft.
Sure, if you have a top draft pick and love one of the young quarterbacks, like Miami’s Cam Ward or Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, select them and build your franchise around them.
For several quarterback-needy teams, that will not be the case. So, it is time to see your options in free agency and the trade markets.
If we’ve learned anything in recent years, you are much more likely to get a good return on your investment with undervalued assets than big-ticket items. Ironically, Steelers QB Russell Wilson is on both lists.
Reviewing Team's Big QB Swings
Let’s start with the true earth-shattering trades over the last few years.
The Browns’ trade compensation and fully guaranteed five-year contract for Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans has been disastrous. In fact, it’s been so bad that Watson has become the poster child for why NFL teams should think long and hard before giving any quarterback, especially one from another team, those types of guarantees.
It is an extremely painful lesson for the Browns that they apparently will have to continue learning in the next two seasons. Heck, they got a much better return on their decision to sign Joe Flacco midway through last year. The old gunslinger came off the couch to play great and lead Cleveland to the playoffs despite making pennies on the Watson dollar.
The Broncos made a similar bold move in acquiring Wilson via trade from Seattle that same offseason. Although not nearly as disastrous as the Watson acquisition in Cleveland, Denver certainly did not get close to what they were hoping for when they gave up all those draft choices to get Wilson.
The fact that they are still paying him $38 million this season while he is eating up $53 million in dead cap space while leading the Steelers to a playoff berth only makes it worse. Thankfully, Bo Nix’s performance has dramatically helped ease that sting.
Then, you have the Jets, who made a big trade two years ago for Aaron Rodgers. It’s hard to fault them for the decision at the time and, frankly, there is no way of knowing if it would have worked out differently had he not torn his Achilles Tendon six plays into the season last year.
There’s even a great example of this dynamic this year. The Falcons brought Kirk Cousins to Atlanta with $90 million fully guaranteed, including more than $67 million in cash this year, only to bench him in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. after a recent spate of bad play.
Value Options Coming Through
Compare and contrast those moves with the Buccaneers' signing of Baker Mayfield last year. They signed him to a one-year, $4 million contract to presumably be a bridge quarterback after Tom Brady’s retirement, and all he did was lead the team to the NFC South title and a victory in a home playoff game.
The team rewarded him with a relatively modest three-year, $100 million contract, which looks like one of the league’s best deals given how he has outplayed many of his peers who make more than 50 million per year.
Or how about the 13 wins Vikings QB Sam Darnold has this year for $10 million, aka less than 20 percent of what the highest-paid quarterbacks receive now? Many didn’t think Darnold would even start that many games this year after the team drafted J.J. McCarthy in the first round of the NFL Draft. Instead, he might lead them to the number one seed.
Last but not least is the aforementioned Wilson. Before a rough patch during their three-game streak, Wilson had the Steelers at 10-3 after Mike Tomlin decided to bench another value pick-up quarterback, Justin Fields, in favor of Wilson. I think it’s fair to say the Steelers got their $1.21 million worth from Wilson after he punched their playoff ticket weeks ago.
So, what does that mean for 2025?
Suppose you are one of the aforementioned quarterback-needy teams. Do you spend big on Darnold, who is expected to command a massive contract from someone this offseason after his breakout performance?
Or do you try to get a little more value from guys unlikely to command those big dollars, like Fields and Wilson?
Perhaps the move is to go with an even more distressed asset and see if you can rehab Cousins or Giants cast-off Daniel Jones to be productive starting quarterbacks again.
If recent history is any indication, the value lies where many least expect it.
