Dating back to 2000, the NFL sees just under 40% of its offensive coordinators turn over each year, to the tune of 12.5 new offensive coordinators at the start of an average year and 263 changes total. Even in the most stable year on record for this metric, 2003, seven teams still entered the year […]
Using Approximate Value to Measure Draft Success in the NFL
Drafting in the NFL is a sport unto itself: Nobody is perfect, but some people are a lot better at it than others. Using Doug Drinen’s “Approximate Value” (AV) statistic, which uses a formula to portion out a team’s success to its players, it’s possible to compare how much value every NFL team has gotten […]
Who Were the Winners and Losers of Last Year’s Offseason?
Everyone and their mom can talk about how much they like or hate a deal at the time it happens, but it’s only with the benefit of hindsight that one can truly evaluate how successful a move was. J.J. Watt was booed by Texans fans when he was drafted, while the “Dream Team” Eagles never […]
Top 10 Cornerback Prospects for 2021 NFL Draft (So Far)
1. Patrick Surtain II, Alabama, 6-1, 203 National champion born to a 3-time Pro Bowl CB, Surtain was the consensus top CB out of high school before being named a Freshman All-American (2018) and later unanimous First team All-American and SEC Defensive Player of the Year (2020). Starting Outside CB you can win because of […]
Who Will Be the Top Head Coaching Candidates in 2022? Here Are 10 Names to Remember
The 2021 coaching carousel is in full swing and several top candidates have already been identified. Here are a 10 coaches who could be in the conversation next offseason, six offensive coaches and four defensive coaches: Offensive Coaches: Matt Campbell, Iowa State head coach Building his reputation as an offensive line coach with Mount Union, […]
The 7 Traits of Highly Effective NFL Playoff Teams
Do playoff teams have similar characteristics? With so many facets of the game, NFL teams over the years have adopted many different approaches in the pursuit of a postseason berth. To identify which strategies have resulted in reaching the playoffs, teams from the past 10 seasons were clustered by similar statistics. This introduction will explain […]
Best and Worst Week 6 Halftime Adjustments By EPA
Football is a game of two halves. In the first, you largely follow a pre-designed gameplan, but that frequently goes out the window at halftime as teams are forced to adjust — and subsequently predict their opponent’s adjustments. Using Expected Points Added (EPA), a statistic that measures how many points each individual offensive play is […]
Study: Do Great Teams Always Blow Out Bad Teams?
When a team we expect to be great matches up against a bad team, we expect a blowout, right? And if a heavily-favored team only wins by a few points, we tend to discount the victory. While this makes intuitive sense, is it accurate? By using point margin to compare the “final four” teams of […]
