NFL Analysis
11/29/24
9 min read
Are Fringe NFL Playoff Teams Pretenders or Contenders?
We are inching closer to the NFL playoffs, and the postseason picture is getting clearer. We know who the potential wild-card teams are in both conferences, but are there any wild-card teams outside of the obvious (Ravens, Vikings, Packers) that have a chance to make a run in the postseason?
Let’s examine some potential wild-card teams and determine whether they are playoff contenders or pretenders heading into December.
AFC Pretenders or Contenders
Los Angeles Chargers 
The Los Angeles Chargers have a difficult remaining schedule, with games left against the Falcons, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Broncos. However, with seven wins in tow, they need just two or three more to clinch a wild-card spot. That shouldn’t be too difficult with the Patriots and Raiders to finish out their season.
While they might not finish the regular season with an elite record, they have a great chance to emerge from the AFC this season for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, the duo of Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert is one of the best in the NFL, and those two will give them a fighting chance in every matchup.
Their defense has also been outstanding for most of the year, and it should allow them to stay competitive in the postseason. The Chargers will be playing on the road in the playoffs, so having a top-notch defense should give them some hope. Harbaugh has built a tough, physical team that is perfect for postseason play. No one is going to want to see this team in Round 1 or Round 2 of the playoffs.
Verdict: Contenders
Denver Broncos
We have to give Sean Payton a ton of credit for turning around the Denver Broncos so quickly. Despite taking on an $80 million cap hit by releasing Russell Wilson, the Broncos sit at 7-5 and are near locks to make the postseason. Their defense has been outstanding this season, and it has allowed them to beat some good teams.
However, the biggest improvement has been by Bo Nix, who has a passer rating of 104.4 in his last eight starts. Nix has scored 17 touchdowns since the start of October, and he’s playing some great football after a rough September. Still, it’s hard to trust the Broncos in the playoffs because they will be playing on the road with a rookie quarterback. The game is played at a different speed in the postseason, which is why even the best rookie quarterbacks can get overwhelmed.
Denver will be a tough out for any divisional winner in Round 1, but this isn’t a serious Super Bowl contender yet. But with the way Payton has this team playing, it won’t be long.
Verdict: Pretenders
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins have been red-hot since Tua Tagovailoa has returned to the lineup. The offense is firing on all cylinders and even the non-superstars are making an impact on that side of the ball. We know this offense is going to be elite, but can it get it done in the postseason?
There are obviously some concerns about the offense going into the postseason, as it would likely need to play in a bad-weather city should the Dolphins qualify. Playing in Pittsburgh, Buffalo, or Baltimore wouldn’t be easy for any offense. But it’s not the offense that is the concern.
The defense has been fantastic in the last few weeks, but can they rely on that unit in the postseason without Jaelan Phillips? They just have too many injuries on the defensive side of the ball to overcome, despite what they’ve done during the last month.
The Dolphins are certainly a playoff-caliber team whenever Tagovailoa is on the field. Still, the fact that they would have to play outdoors in the cold without their top defensive player could prove to be too tall of a task.
Verdict: Pretender
NFC Pretenders or Contenders
Washington Commanders
If we were writing this article three weeks ago, it wouldn’t be much of a discussion in terms of Washington’s playoff chances. They had a rising star at quarterback and a head coach with a Super Bowl pedigree. But after three straight losses, it’s fair to wonder if the Washington Commanders will even make the postseason.
The offense has struggled during the last few weeks, scoring just nine points in the first 55 minutes against the Cowboys. They heated up later in the game, but it was a little too late. Jayden Daniels has been banged up and just hasn’t been able to maintain drives. Washington’s defense isn’t good enough to support a struggling offense, and that’s why it has lost each of its last three games.
The Commanders just need a few more wins to earn a playoff berth, but with a rookie quarterback and a struggling defense, it’s hard to see them getting out of Round 1, especially if they have to face Detroit or Philadelphia.
Washington has had a really fun season, but don’t expect it to win more than a single playoff game this year.
Verdict: Pretender
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals are a tough team to predict. They’ve taken down some good contenders, including the Chargers, Rams, 49ers, and Dolphins. They even held their own against the Lions, which most teams haven’t done this year.
Their overall talent level suggests that they can't hang with the top-end teams in the NFC. Still, they do have a top-end quarterback and plenty of weapons on offense. What’s more impressive is their defense, which has allowed 31 total points in the last three weeks. The defense has been outstanding in the last two months, and it might just be the reason why it could contend in the conference.
If Kyler Murray can stay healthy, the Cardinals could be a problem in the postseason. It takes some projecting to believe that they can be contenders, especially after a loss to the Seahawks. However, this team is trending in the right direction.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Rams
There is a lot to like about the Los Angeles Rams, should they make it to the postseason. They have a Super Bowl-winning quarterback who can go toe-to-toe with the league’s top passers in any game. With Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams, they have the weapons on offense to win a shootout.
The biggest issue with the Rams is that they don’t have the front seven to stop opposing rushing attacks. We saw this on full display in Week 12, as Saquon Barkley racked up more than 300 yards from scrimmage on Monday Night Football.
While not every team has a Saquon Barkley, most of the top teams in the NFC can run the ball (Lions, Eagles, Falcons, Packers, etc). And the Rams just don’t have the defenders to match up with balanced offenses.
It would be fun to see Stafford in another playoff game, but this team isn’t ready to win a big-time game against a good opponent. And that’s why their record is what it is after 12 weeks. Don’t be surprised if the Rams fight back into the wild-card race but fail to make noise in the postseason.
Verdict: Pretender
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The NFC is very top-heavy, and that’s why we believe teams like the Rams, Commanders, and the 49ers are all pretenders. However, one team that could make some noise in the NFC playoffs is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which are the only team to beat the Lions this year.
Not to mention, they also took down the Eagles earlier in the season, and those are expected to be the top two teams in the conference. We know that they aren’t afraid of the juggernauts in the NFC, and that’s something that can be said for some of the other playoff teams.
Now that Mike Evans has returned from his hamstring injury, the offense is back to being one of the top units in the league. They are averaging 28.1 points per game this year, fourth-most in the NFL. They do have a record of 5-6, but they have a favorable schedule going forward and could realistically get to double-digit wins.
Tampa Bay’s defense has been up and down all year long, but it does have several veterans who have played in big games, including the 2020 Super Bowl. Can Todd Bowles get the defense to play at a higher level in the postseason?
That’ll be a challenge, but there are enough high-end players on this roster that can make a postseason push. And with Liam Coen establishing himself as one of the league’s top playcallers, they might just be able to win a shootout against some of the top teams in the league.
Verdict: Contender
