NFL Analysis
9/25/24
9 min read
Are Caleb Williams-Jayden Daniels Repeating History of Bryce Young-C.J. Stroud As Top Picks?
As the second overall pick in the 2023 draft, C.J. Stroud far outperformed first overall pick Bryce Young in their rookie seasons.
Now, history is in the process of repeating itself one year later with No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels off to a hot start with the Washington Commanders while No. 1 Caleb Williams is struggling in Chicago.
Stroud was the Offensive Rookie of the Year after leading the Houston Texans from 3-13-1 in 2022 to AFC South champs at 10-7, plus a playoff win against Cleveland. He threw 23 TD passes and only five interceptions in 2023 when his 100.8 passer rating ranked sixth.
But Stroud was fortunate to have an excellent supporting cast of fine coaches headed by DeMeco Ryans, a solid offensive line and good skill position players led by WR Nico Collins.
Conversely, Young was sacked 62 times while playing behind a lousy offensive line. Adam Thielen was his only quality, productive wide receiver, and the run game ranked 20th. Young threw 11 TD passes and 10 interceptions and finished the season with an ugly 73.7 passer rating (34th).
Young's coach, Frank Reich, was fired in midseason. In Year 2, new coach Dave Canales decided Young needed a reset, so he benched him last week for Andy Dalton after Young's 0-2 start with a 44.1 passer rating that ranked dead last.
Another Year, Another Top Pick QB Battle
Daniels vs. Williams is shaping up to be a similar situation.
It was especially obvious in Week 3 when Daniels completed 21 of 23 passes for a rookie record 91.3 percent, 252 passing yards, two TD passes plus 39 rushing yards, and a TD as he led a 38-33 upset in Cincinnati.
His game-clinching 27-yard TD pass to Terry McLaurin with 2:10 remaining was a perfect throw with a blitzer in his face.
Daniels' Week 1 performance was noteworthy for two rushing TDs and 88 yards on the ground, but he had only 184 passing yards in the 17-point loss at Tampa Bay. In the Week 2 win against the Giants, Daniels battled through five sacks to throw for 226 yards, rush for 44 yards, and lead a 65-yard drive in the final two minutes, ending with the game-winning field goal.
Through three games, Daniels has no turnovers, a 111. 8 passer rating that ranks fourth, and an amazing 80.3 percent completion rate that is on pace to break Drew Brees' NFL record of 74.4 percent set in 2018. After the team finished 4-13 last season, Daniels has led the Commanders to a 2-1 start that has them tied with the Eagles for the NFC East lead.
Daniels has a solid offensive line (nine sacks allowed) and a decent receiver corps led by McLaurin and TE Zach Ertz, with Austin Ekeler an excellent receiving back. Daniels is also supported by the league's fifth-best running game that he's a big part of, with 171 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground thus far, but his 38 carries may be too many, and as in the case of Lamar Jackson, it may expose him to eventual injury for a player who needs to get a little bigger and stronger to handle the hits.
Daniels also has a head coach in Dan Quinn, who led the Falcons to a Super Bowl, and his offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, is a long-time successful offensive coach.
No such luck for Williams. He has a bad offensive line that does not open holes for the 31st-ranked rushing attack. They also don't pass protect well for Williams, who has been sacked 13 times, the third-most in the league. The possible good news for Williams is even though his coach, Matt Eberflus, has a defensive background, his offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, did a great job coaching up Geno Smith to a Pro Bowl level in Seattle the past two years.
Waldron must get Williams to help his beleaguered O-line and frustrated receivers by not holding the ball too long at times and throwing too many rushed and inaccurate passes. But the Bears also have to help Williams with a better rushing attack and improved pass protection.
In last Sunday's 21-16 loss at Indianapolis, Williams threw for 363 yards and his first two TD passes, but he basically cost the Bears the game with two interceptions and a lost fumble in the fourth quarter.
Williams threw for only 93 yards in the season opener, and the Bears won against Tennessee with a blocked punt return for a touchdown and a pick-six. In Week 2 at Houston on the national Sunday night stage, Williams was sacked seven times, threw two interceptions, and had only 174 passing yards in the 19-13 defeat. Through three games, he's completed only 59.3 percent of his passes (27th in the league), throwing four picks, and his 65.3 passer rating ranks 28th.
Their ninth-ranked defense is playing well, but the 1-2 Bears' hopes of becoming a playoff team this season are in serious jeopardy at this point due to Willams' poor play, bad pass protection, and lack of running game.
The 23-year-old Daniels is one year older than Williams and seems more mature. It may have helped Daniels to have started 55 games in his college career at Arizona State and LSU compared to Williams' 37 starts at Oklahoma and USC.
The other first-round QB from the 2024 draft class who is starting — 24-year-old Bo Nix in Denver — had 61 college starts at Auburn and Oregon. He had an awful first two games with two interceptions in each loss to unbeaten Seattle and Pittsburgh but played better in Sunday's upset win at Tampa Bay. He's only been sacked four times, so his offensive line is doing a good job in terms of protection.
Stroud had only 27 starts at Ohio State. So, while extensive starting experience in college is nice to have, it's really more about the supporting cast for a young NFL quarterback.
A Rocky Start Isn't The End
If this season continues to head south, Williams could be benched like Young was. Perhaps Williams or Young will follow the lead of Sam Darnold, who was a bust at the Jets as the 21-year-old third overall pick in 2018.
After stints in Carolina and San Francisco, Darnold landed in a great situation in Minnesota. He works with Kevin O'Connell, a former NFL quarterback, as the head coach who runs the offense. Darnold also has a strong offensive line and effective run game led by Aaron Jones, outstanding wide receivers.
All-Pro Justin Jefferson and 2023 first-rounder Jordan Addison are the starters, and Jalen Nailor is an excellent No. 3 receiver. Plus, Pro Bowl TE T. J. Hockenson can come off PUP next week if he's fully recovered from his 2023 ACL injury.
Going into this season, Darnold was expected to be a bridge quarterback to 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. That changed when McCarthy suffered a preseason meniscus injury that put him out for the year.
Gloom and doom hit the fan base, but now Darnold is the toast of the Twin Cities. He's an early MVP candidate as he's led the Vikings to a 3-0 start, including wins in the last two weeks against 2023 division champions San Francisco and Houston. Darnold leads the league with eight TD passes and ranks second in passer rating (117.3).
Darnold is the latest example of a quarterback who had the talent all along but wasn't in a conducive situation with sub-par supporting casts as a 21-year-old starter in New York and later in Carolina. He threw 52 interceptions from 2018 to 2021.
Darnold is now more mature and experienced at 27 years old; he's started 59 NFL games. He no longer carries the pressure and expectations of being a high first-round pick in the nation's biggest market who was expected to turn the franchise's fortunes around immediately.
O'Connell spoke recently of Darnold's career path and current impact in making this statement that is applicable to all young QBs:
"I talk a lot about the quarterback journey, and quarterbacks in our league don't get to control a lot of that journey. They're expected to perform and, in some cases, immediately. I really like the way Sam carries himself. He's a talented player. He can make big-time throws, and he's more than capable of making every throw, and then he prepares in a way that shows up on Sundays. His teammates viewed him as a captain. I can't say enough about how excited I am to build on his performance moving forward."
- Vikings Coach Kevin O'Connell
We can put Justin Fields in that former first-rounder who had more success elsewhere category after he was traded from Chicago — where he was the 11th pick in the 2021 draft but didn't have a winning season — to Pittsburgh when the Bears were preparing to draft Williams.
Fields is starting and flourishing with an unbeaten Steelers team that runs the ball well and plays great defense. It appears Russell Wilson won't supplant Fields any time soon.
Baker Mayfield is another former first-round pick (in Cleveland) who had limited success and battled injuries before being dumped when the Browns went all-in on Deshaun Watson. Mayfield is now playing well for a Tampa Bay team he led to the playoffs and a playoff victory over the Eagles last season, and he's helped the Bucs to a 2-1 start this season.
Highly drafted quarterbacks simply need support. Stroud and Daniels have had it thus far. Young and Williams haven't had nearly enough at this juncture.
The bottom line is never to underestimate a young quarterback's supporting cast and experience.
