Analysis

Using Hit Rate to Analyze 2022 First Round Picks

Using Hit Rate to Analyze 2022 First Round Picks

Now that we have established the second contract hit rates of first-round picks from 2013-17 at each position, we can look at how the 2022 draft class may pan out.

Of course, the hit rates do not fully represent the current state of the league, as it considers draft picks from 2013-17 because those are the players who completed their second contracts.

Additionally, the results are across a five-year span, so it does not fully apply to just the 2022 class. That said, the hit rate percentages can still be useful to look at for the potential second contract results for 2022 first-round picks.

Below, we will analyze each position selected in the first round of the 2022 draft class, using the data that we found.

 

In the table above, we can see the number of players selected at each position in the 2022 first round. The table also shows the 2013-17 hit rate for each of those positions.

QB: Kenny Pickett

The only quarterback taken in the first round in 2022 was new Pittsburgh Steeler, Kenny Pickett. Using the 2013-17 hit rate of around 40%, the chances of Pickett reaching a second contract with the Steelers is far from a guarantee.

WR: Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks

The 2022 offseason saw wide receivers throughout the league get huge contracts, as it became clear that wide receiver is a valuable position and one that should be taken highly in the draft. The large number taken in the first round was similar to the results in 2013-17, where wide receiver was one of the most popular positions selected.

Using the hit rate from those five years, 38.1% of wide receivers signed a second contract with their teams. It will be interesting to see how the success rate will apply to the 2022 class, as there were six talented wide receivers selected in the first round, who will likely not all have success.

OT: Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, Charles Cross, Trevor Penning, Tyler Smith

As discussed in the first-round hit rate piece, offensive tackle was both one of the most common and most reliable positions to spend a first-round pick on. Using the 60% hit rate from 2013-17 and applying it to just the 2022 class, three out of the five tackles could sign second contracts.

OG: Zion Johnson, Kenyon Green, Cole Strange

Offensive guard is usually not a very common selection, as it was selected 10 times from 2013-17. That said, 2022 saw three guards selected in the first round. The hit rate of those 10 guards was 50%. The 50% hit rate suggests that between one and two guards could reach their second contract.

OC: Tyler Linderbaum

Center is not a position commonly picked in the first round as it happened just three times from 2013-17. Out of the three, two were successful, which could be a good sign for Ravens’ selection Tyler Linderbaum and his new team.

DL: Jordan Davis, Devonte Wyatt

The defensive line made up many picks during the 2013-17 drafts, as there were 17 players drafted in the first round during the five years, which saw a second contract rate of just 35.3%. Using the percentage to focus on just 2022 and not a span of classes, the hit rate suggests that potentially one of the Georgia defensive linemen could have success while the other may not.

EDGE: Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Jermaine Johnson, George Karlaftis

Like offensive tackle, EDGE was a very popular selection in the first round but did not see quite the same success as offensive tackles from 2013-17, the hit rate was still just below 50%. Using that number to look at just the 2022 EDGE class, it would suggest that between two and three of the five pass rushers may have success.

LB: Quay Walker, Devin Lloyd

While the linebacker position has had some more successful picks since 2018, from 2013-17, first-round LBs were not very successful. Out of the 11 selected in that span, just two signed extensions, as the hit rate was below 20%. The low percentage is not a good sign for the Packers and Jaguars.

CB: Derek Stingley Jr, Sauce Gardner, Trent McDuffie, Kaiir Elam

Cornerback was the most common draft pick in the first round during the 2013-17 span. In those five years, the hit rate of cornerbacks was below 40%. If we only focus on how the hit rates apply to this class, it is suggested under half of the four cornerbacks will have success.

S: Kyle Hamilton, Dax Hill, Lewis Cine

Not only is safety not the most valuable position by looking at its contract market, but it was the worst position to draft in the first round from 2013-17. While all three safeties selected look to be potential big-time players, the low hit rate from 2013-17 suggests they may not all reach their second contract.

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