Analysis
11/4/22
10 min read
Titans vs. Chiefs Week 9 Scouting Report: Grades and Key Matchups
The Scouting Report for Sunday night's Titans vs. Chiefs game is produced by The 33rd Team's Scouting Department, led by former Eagles, Cardinals, and Ravens personnel executive T.J. McCreight and assisted by scouts Justin Casey, Kevin Cohn and Evan Pritt.
Derrick Henry vs. Chiefs’ Front 7
- Henry leads the league in yards rushing per game and is tied for third in rushing touchdowns with seven. He is highly productive despite averaging just .69 yards before contact. There is only one other RB in the top 10 in yards rushing per game who averages under 1.5 yards before contact.
- They have won five games in a row and Henry is coming off of a 219 yards rushing performance against the Texans, his fourth straight game with over 100 yards. However, Kansas City held him to 86 yards on 29 carries in a 27-3 loss last October.
- They are going to ride Henry as far as he can take them. Without A.J. Brown, they don’t have a lot to scare defenses on the perimeter.
- The Titans run the fifth-most multiple TE and/or multiple RB sets in the league. They are a run-heavy team (55.4%); only Atlanta and Chicago throw the ball at a lower rate. They run out of the gun too, but they are at their best with him lined up seven yards deep with the QB under center. This gets Henry running downhill and helps set up play action, which is also where Tannehill looks most comfortable. Their success running the ball is about their commitment to it and Henry’s ability, because their O-Line is very average talent-wise.
- Henry is a very patient runner who will keep probing and churning his legs to get as many yards as possible. He’ll lull you to sleep and then surprise you with the acceleration to bounce it outside. He’ll keep taking the 2-3 yards with his forward body lean, and then when he catches a seam, he is surprisingly nimble weaving and making guys miss at the second and third levels of the defense. That might be in part because no one wants to have his cleat marks on their chest or get thrown to the ground by his stiff arm. He is the most physically intimidating runner in the game today.
- The Chiefs are much improved statistically against the run this year. They ranked 31st in yards per rush allowed last season, and this year they rank third in yards rushing per game allowed at 92 yards per game and seventh in yards per rush. Some of that improvement is skewed by the six yards rushing Tampa had and the fact that K.C. has been playing with a big lead in several of their games.
- Kansas City will be fresh and at full strength on defense after its bye week, other than the suspension of DE Frank Clark for a violation of the league’s personal conduct policy. It will miss his pass rush more than his play against the run.
- While Chris Jones has the ability to dominate in the run game, his effort is flat-out awful at times. There are times when he just shuts it down in the middle of the play. Khalen Saunders is their best interior run defender who can stack blockers and make plays laterally. First-rounder George Karlaftis and 33-year-old Carlos Dunlap have solidified them on the edges against the run. Second-year linebacker Nick Bolton has taken a leap forward and become a playmaker. He is tied for fifth in the league with five tackles for loss on running plays. While he lacks ideal length and mass, he plays with a nice blend of quickness and physicality. He plays under control with good balance and pad level to get underneath ball carriers and bring them down quickly.
- This will have to be a group effort to slow down Henry. Unless they get down by three TDs early, Tennessee is not going to abandon the run like Tampa did. They will make the Chiefs tackle Henry for four quarters.
Chiefs’ OL vs. Titans’ Pass Rush
- The Titans blitz at the ninth-lowest rate (17.1%), but they have put together a formidable pass rush despite the loss of their top edge rusher, Harold Landry who tore his ACL in practice just before the season opener. They have 19 sacks, with 17.5 coming from DT Jeffery Simmons (5.5), DL Denico Autry (5), Edge Rashad Weaver (4), and OLB Bud Dupree (3).
- Simmons is as good as Chris Jones as a rusher, but he is much more fundamentally sound and plays both phases of the game. He can win with quickness or power. He can really work and edge and get upfield quickly with an arm over. He can discard blockers and close on the QB. He has rare agility and body control for a player of his size.
- Autry plays with excellent effort and lots of shock in his hands. He’s not a bendy player, but he can play out to a 5-tech or play inside. He’s very good at running stunts and will strike unaware blockers with authority to free up a teammate. He will finish plays and get in passing lanes.
- Weaver only played sparingly in the first three games of his rookie season before breaking his right fibula last season. The 2021 fourth-round pick has played 66% of the snaps so far this season and has been a solid contributor. He has very good length and flashes better than expected lower body flexion and the ability to flatten the edge to the QB. He’s not explosive, but he can close and cover a lot of ground with his long strides. He doesn’t show a lot of counters and he needs to get stronger. His spin and change of direction can look a little labored.
- Dupree has been a solid player over his eight-year career, but he has only posted double-digit sacks in one season. As a 2-pt rusher, he has a good get-off and burst, but he is not a guy who can dip and flatten the edge. He plays hard and will keep working. He can long arm and close. He struggles to break down and redirect if the QB moves off of his spot.
- The Chiefs have allowed sacks at the fifth-lowest rate (4.3%), and they have started the same five players up front except for one game missed by RG Trey Smith.
- The interior three of LG Joe Thuney, OC Creed Humphrey, and RG Smith do a particularly good job working together and passing off vs. stunts and games. They will have to be on their “A game” vs. the games and individual abilities and efforts of Simmons and Autry.
- LT Orlando Brown is how you would draw them up frame-wise. He doesn’t have great foot quickness and is slower with his hands than you would like. He’s not great at redirecting, but with his length and mass, he can afford to be patient and not overcommit. He allows smaller players to move him and shrink the pocket more often than he should. He will finish plays and toss players with little effort when he gets hands on.
- RT Andrew Wylie is not your ideal tackle, but he does a professional job. He doesn’t have a great anchor and he will get his feet crossed up. He does work his hands and shows good awareness.
- The Chiefs are solid in the middle, but this is one area where the Titans might have a slight edge on paper. They need a big game out of Simmons.
Mahomes and Chiefs’ Weapons vs. Titans’ secondary
- The Titans are ranked 25th in QB Rating against (96.6), while Mahomes is ranked second in QB Rating (109.5) and leads the league with 20 TD passes.
- The Titans are ranked first in third down defense (25.58%), and the Chiefs are ranked first in third down offense (51.9%)
- Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary, and Terrance Mitchell are the three primary corners at this point in the season. All three will line up on both sides and the slot, but Fulton has taken the most coverage snaps at right corner and in the slot, with Mitchell lining up outside and Fulton moving into the slot in nickel. McCreary is undersized, but he is physical in his reroutes and at the catch point. He has below-average speed for the position and will lose the jump balls to taller receivers. Mitchell has played for six teams in his nine-year career. He has the best short-area quickness and burst out of his plant, but he is also undersized. Fulton has some length and does a nice job using the sideline as an extra defender. None of these three have elite traits, but they are a good tackling group. They allow the second-fewest yards after catch per reception. FS Kevin Byard is the pillar of the Titans’ secondary, playing all seven years of his career in Tennessee. He only has one interception this season, but he has 24 in his career. Byard and LB David Long will be key in defending Travis Kelce and making sure he doesn’t get loose after the catch.
- They have been solid on defense this year, allowing just one team (Buffalo-41) to score more than 22 points. However, like Buffalo, the Chiefs are going to provide a much greater challenge than their last four opponents: Indianapolis twice, Washington, and Houston.
- The Chiefs have scored less than 27 points in just two games and over 40 in three games. They are coming off their most complete game, scoring 44 against the 49ers.
- Priority number one for any defense is always Kelce who is tied for the lead league with seven receiving TDs. It’s scary for the rest of the league that 2022 free agent acquisitions JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are looking fully integrated and comfortable in this offense. Both players had over 100 yards receiving last week. Add in Mecole Hardman, 2022 second-rounder Skyy Moore and recently acquired former first-rounder Kadarius Toney, and you can put a lot of stress on a defense.
Extra Points
- Since Andy Reid has taken over as head coach of the Chiefs, they are only 2-5 against Tennessee.
- They have met in the playoffs in two of the last five seasons, with both games being played in Kansas City. Just like the importance of Buffalo beating KC for playoff implications, the Titans would rather face K.C. at home if they meet again.
Titans’ Keys to Victory
- Simmons and Autry need to get pressure in Mahomes’ face.
- Control the game with Henry and set up the play-action game.
Chiefs’ Keys to Victory
- Don’t allow the Titans to dictate the tempo of the game with Henry.
- Protect Mahomes and continue to spread the ball around.
WATCH MORE: Is Kelce or JuJu the Better Play vs. Titans?
