Analysis

Big Play Index: The Saints Have An Inflated Record

Big Play Index: Giants vs Chiefs Will Be Close

The 33rd Team introduced the Big Play Index last season to show how NFL teams stack up in terms of big plays produced and big plays allowed.

The Big Play Index has a new and improved outlook with the help of Marc Trestman. When Trestman coached in the NFL, his definition of a “Big Play” was a run of 10-plus yards and/or a pass of 16-plus yards. Ultimately, BPI correlates the ability to create explosive plays, while also limiting the opponent, and the success of the team (based on wins).

Big Play Index
Heading into Week 8, we take a look at some key matchups that could be influenced by each team’s ability to generate or stop big plays.

Browns vs Steelers:

The Cleveland Browns, despite being 4-3, have the best big play differential of any team in the league. They have over 30 more big plays for than they have allowed. Despite this, the Browns have struggled in the red zone, as they are tied for 24th in the league in scoring once they get in the red area. This comes a season after being 4th in the league in said category. Likewise, the Browns have been unable to force turnovers (tied for 3rd worst in NFL). That said, the Steelers are very much within the bottom half of the league in BPI. The Browns should be able to force the ball down the field with a much healthier lineup than last week.

Bills vs Dolphins:

The No. 2 team in BPI, the Buffalo Bills, are facing the 3rd worst BPI team in the Miami Dolphins. While the spread for this game is already Buffalo -14, it would be wise to suggest that this game could be even more of a blowout due to big plays for and against.

Extra hits:

Taking advice from the BPI, watch for the Giants to give the Chiefs a closer game than expected and the Titans to have a leg up over the Colts. The Saints have a -13 BPI and are the only team with a negative BPI but an above .500 record
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