NFL Analysis

Week 5 Stat Review

Let’s look at some of the keys stats from three of Week 5’s more intriguing outcomes:

Steelers 38, Eagles 29

Unexpected WR Explosion

  • Steelers rookie second-round WR Chase Claypool was the 11th receiver drafted in the 2020 draft
  • He had 7 receptions for 110 yards and 3 receiving TDs, as well as 1 rushing TD
  • He became just the fourth rookie to score 4 TDs in one game, joining Emmitt Smith, Earl Campbell, Gale Sayers and Jim Brown — all Hall of Famers
  • The last Steeler to score 4 TDs in one game was Roy Jefferson in 1968
  • He is the seventh WR since merger to record a 3-plus TD game in one of his first five games
  • He is also the first Steelers rookie since Franco Harris in 1972 to have a rushing TD and a receiving TD in one game
  • Eagles second-year WR Travis Fulgham could not be stopped either, catching 10 passes for 152 yards and 1 TD
  • He is the Eagles’ first 100-yard receiver since Alshon Jeffery last year in Week 13
  • He was waived by two teams between August 9-19 before being claimed by the Eagles, where he stuck
  • He joins George Kittle and Davante Adams as the only receivers to have 10-plus catches, 150-plus yards and a TD in a game this season
  • Fulgham had more receiving yards this week (152) than any other Eagles WR had combined through the first four weeks

Wentz’s Ball Security Continues

  • Carson Wentz played better than he has all season in this matchup against one of the top defenses in the NFL, but still struggled with turnovers
  • The Steelers defensive front wasn’t as dominant as expected, but they still got to Wentz 5 times in this game and have now gone 61 straight games with a sack
  • Wentz has a lack of weapons but his ball security issues have taken them out of some close games (including this one)
  • Wentz threw 2 INTs for a total of 8 INTs on the season
  • 8 INTs in 5 games is the most since his rookie season
  • He has thrown twice as many INTs as he has TDs this season
  • In each of his first three seasons, Wentz threw just 7 INTs, which he has already surpassed this season

Big-Play Ability or Lack of Quality Play in the Secondary?

  • The Eagles and Steelers combined for 11 explosive plays (15-plus yards), gaining a total of 270 yards as well as four total “big plays” (plays of 20-plus yards)
  • The Eagles three starting CBs played well and were able to limit the explosive plays allowed
  • They combined for 24 targets and 13 receptions for 95 total yards
  • Allowing a combined 7.31 yards per reception
  • The Steelers three starting CBs did not have as much luck
  • They allowed 12 receptions on 20 targets for 188 yards and 2 TDs
  • 15.66 yards per reception
  • The Steelers’ usually very stout defense also allowed a 74-yard rushing TD to RB Miles Sanders, which was the longest of his career (70 yards over expectation, which is the second most on a rush this season)
  • It was the third-longest TD run against the Steelers since 2004

Raiders 40, Chiefs 32

Raiders Offensive Boom

  • The Raiders scored 40-plus points at Arrowhead for the first time since their 41-38 OT win on Jan. 2, 2000
  • This win snaps the Chiefs’ 13-game winning streak
  • QB Derek Carr is the first Raider to throw for over 300 passing yards at Arrowhead in 18 years
  • He completed 3 of 4 deep passes for 177 yards and 2 TDs in the first half. That yardage total represents more deep passing yards than he’s had in any game over the last five seasons
  • The Raiders exploited the weakness they found in the Chiefs defense: the middle of the field
  • Carr attacked the middle third of the field 14 times, completing 12 of those passes for 234 yards and 3 TDs
  • Carr extended his streak to 316 pass attempts without an INT before he was picked off in the first quarter

The Way to Beat the Chiefs

  • In order to stop Patrick Mahomes and his explosive offense, the opposing team needs to control the clock
  • Mahomes has lost eight games in his young career; in seven of those losses, the opponent has won time of possession. In those eight losses, the opponents average 33:40 in time of possession
  • In addition to controlling the clock, the opponent needs to hit on downfield passes
  • Derek Carr completed 4 out of 6 deep pass attempts (20-plus yards) for 219 yards
  • Mahomes was only able to complete 3 out of his 10 deep pass attempts for 86 yards

Cowboys 37, Giants 34

The Back and Forth

  • The Giants led the game 17-3 with 13:30 left in the second quarter
  • The Giants win percentage was 67.65% going into that next Cowboys drive
  • The Cowboys then scored on a 1-yard Zeke Elliott TD before recovering a fumble and bringing it back for a score to tie the game at 17
  • These two drives flipped the win probability almost completely (after the fumble recovery for TD, the Cowboys had 61.64% win probability)
  • After Elliott’s TD with 5:03 left in the third quarter, the Cowboys’ win probability got to a game-high 84.79%
  • After the Dak Prescott injury, Andy Dalton came in and fumbled, shifting the game 23.3% in favor of the Giants as the Cowboys went from 81.81% win probability to 58.54%
  • Post fumble, the Giants went down and scored a TD and a 2-point conversion to go up by three. This gave the Giants a 61.42% win percentage
  • The Cowboys made a FG to tie it up, a defensive stop, then a FG to finally win

Cowboys Offensive Weapons Keep Shining

  • CeeDee Lamb had 8 receptions for 124 yards and is the only rookie since 1950 to have at least 5-plus receptions in each of his first five games
  • Elliott rushed for a 12-yard TD with 5:03 left in the third quarter, which was 8 yards over expected, according to Next Gen Stats
  • The TD probability on that play was 2.9%, which was the most improbable TD run in the red zone for Elliott since 2018
  • According to Next Gen Stats, when Andy Dalton hit Michael Gallup 38 yards down the field to set up the game-winning FG, he had .3 yards of receiver separation and .3 yards of sideline distance
  • This made the catch only 15.7% probable
  • Gallup excels on the Cowboys offense on go routes. He leads the league in targets and receptions on go routes, according to Next Gen Stats

Other Statistical Notes

  • Rams DL Aaron Donald (4.0 sacks) and LB Troy Reeder (3.0) were the first duo to record 3.0 sacks each in a game since Whitney Mercilus (3.5) and J.J. Watt (3.0) in Week 17 of the 2015 season
  • The last Rams duo to do it was Robert Quinn (3.0) and Chris Long (3.0) vs. Seattle in Week 8 of 2013
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