Analysis

10/8/22

6 min read

Matchups Week 5: 49ers vs. Panthers

By Ryan Reynolds

Baker Mayfield NFL betting Week 5

San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

Opening Spread: Panthers +5

Opening Game Total: 39.5

Opening Team Totals: Carolina Panthers (17.25), San Francisco 49ers (22.25)

Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Panthers +5.
  • This line moved to Panthers +6.5 as of Friday night.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Panthers +6.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Panthers +6.5.
  • This total opened at 39.5 points.
  • This total remains at 39.5 points as of Friday night. 

Notable Injuries

Panthers: IR: S Jeremy Chinn; Questionable: LB Frankie Luvu, S Xavier Woods

49ers: Out: LT Trent Williams, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Arik Armstead

The Panthers Offense vs. 49ers Defense

The 49ers' front would have a massive advantage at full strength. Unfortunately for San Francisco, they are going into this one without Kinlaw and Armstead. San Francisco still has an advantage with edge Nick Bosa in the lineup, but that advantage has been reduced by those injuries.

Betting Notes

  • The Panthers are 1-3 against the spread this season.
  • The Panthers are 1-3 on overs this season.

Offense

  • The Panthers score 19.5 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
  • Carolina is 30th in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing.
  • Per TruMedia, Christian McCaffrey is eighth among running backs in yards rushing (270) and third in yards receiving (138). McCaffrey leads all running backs with a 20.4% target share.
  • Wide receiver D.J. Moore only has 13 receptions this season, but he has a 25.7% target share and a 32.5% air yards share. Moore has 155 snaps on the perimeter and 51 in the slot.

Defense

  • The 49ers have allowed 11.5 points per game, which is the best in the league.
  • Per The Edge, San Francisco has allowed the third-fewest yards rushing and the 10th-fewest yards receiving to running backs this year.
  • The 49ers have allowed the ninth-fewest yards receiving on the 19th-most receptions to wide receivers.
  • San Francisco has given up the fourth-fewest yards receiving on the 10th-fewest receptions to tight ends. 

The 49ers Offense vs. Panthers Defense

Williams' absence puts the 49ers' offensive line in below-average territory. The Panthers' front four is in a similar tier, so there is no macro edge in this matchup. However, Panthers edge Brian Burns is a dynamic athlete that could present problems for San Francisco’s offensive tackles.

Betting Notes

  • The 49ers are 2-2 against the spread this season.
  • The 49ers are 0-4 on overs this season.

49ers Offense

  • The 49ers score 17.8 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
  • San Francisco is 26th in the league in yards passing per game and ninth in yards rushing.
  • Per TruMedia, Jeff Wilson is 16th among running backs in yards rushing (255). Wilson became the primary RB after Elijah Mitchell’s opening-day injury.
  • Versatile wide receiver Deebo Samuel has a 26.9% target share with a 10.9% air yards share. Samuel has 124 perimeter snaps and 31 in the slot.
  • Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has a 22.1% target share and a 32.2% air yards share. He has 173 perimeter snaps and 45 in the slot.
  • Since returning from injury, tight end George Kittle has six receptions on nine targets for 52 yards through the past two games.

Panthers Defense

  • The Panthers have allowed 21.3 points per game, which is 13th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Panthers have allowed the seventh-most yards rushing and the fourth-fewest yards receiving to running backs.
  • Carolina has given up the 13th-most yards receiving on the fifth-most receptions to wide receivers.
  • The Panthers have surrendered the ninth-most PPR points to perimeter receivers.
  • Carolina has given up the ninth-fewest yards receiving on the 13th-fewest receptions to tight ends.

This Is What You’re Betting on in Panthers vs. 49ers

A bet on Carolina is a bet on a talented offense mired by subpar quarterback and offensive line play, while its coaching staff is on the hot seat. That cluster of realities makes any bet on the Panthers a bet on an unreliable offense. Carolina's only win this season came against the Saints in Week 3 when their defense carried them.

San Francisco isn’t an offensive juggernaut in their current state, and the Panthers have given up the 13th-fewest points this season. This game will likely be a defensive battle, which is your easiest path to a Panthers' cover.

A bet on the 49ers is a bet on a roster down key linemen on both sides of the ball. San Francisco has plenty of offensive talent, and coach Kyle Shanahan is among the best offensive minds in the sport. However, the 49ers are 27th in the league in scoring. Early this week, I was interested in the 49ers' side of this game.

San Francisco's front four was set to have a major advantage against the Panthers' offensive line. Injuries have reduced that advantage. Panthers coach Matt Rhule is on the hot seat and quarterback Baker Mayfield has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this season. If you’re betting on the 49ers here, you are betting against Mayfield, Rhule and offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo.

Awards Market Ramifications: Nick Bosa is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: Given some of the 49ers' key injuries, the Panthers are an aggressive differentiator option in winner pools. In confidence pools, I will be near consensus on this game and will rank the 49ers adjacent to New Orleans.

Spread Pool: My immediate urge early was to take the 49ers because their front four could potentially derail this game. I’m less bullish on that stance after seeing some of the 49ers' key injuries. On the other side, I cannot bet on the trio of Mayfield, Rhule and McAdoo. Ultimately, I still lean toward the 49ers' side, but I’m less enthusiastic than I was due to Kinlaw and Armstead missing this contest.

Survivor Pool: In a week with a number of significant home favorites, I’ll be avoiding the 49ers in survivor pools.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 14-6

Props 2022: 13-7

WATCH MORE: Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds and Ben Wolby Discuss Their Favorite Player Props

Tags: Betting, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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