Analysis
9/30/22
8 min read
Matchups Week 4: Commanders vs. Cowboys
Washington Commanders (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Opening Spread: Cowboys -3.
Opening Game Total: 42.5.
Opening Team Totals: Cowboys (22.75), Commanders (19.75)
Weather: Indoors.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cowboys -3.
- This line has moved to Cowboys -3.5 as of Thursday night.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Cowboys -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Cowboys -3.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total remains at 42.5 points as of Thursday night.
Notable Injuries
Cowboys: Questionable: WR Michael Gallup, TE Dalton Schultz, LG Connor McGovern, Edge Demarcus Lawrence, S Jayron Kearse.
Commanders: Out: Edge Chase Young. Questionable: LT Charles Leno Jr., C Wes Schweitzer, Edge James Smith-Williams.
The Cowboys Offense vs. Commanders Defense
After a tough opening night against Tampa Bay, the Cowboys' offensive line has played well without LT Tyron Smith. Commanders Edge Chase Young is still sidelined, so Washington’s front still hasn’t played a game at full strength this season. Even without Young, the Commanders have a solid front. I have them ranked in the same tier as the Cowboys' offensive line. I’m treating this matchup as if there is no significant (macro) trench edge for either team.
Notes and Observations
- The Cowboys are 2-1 against the spread this season.
- The Cowboys are 1-2 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Cooper Rush is 18th in yards per attempt and 16th in air yards per attempt.
- Rush has played well enough for Dallas to win through his first two starts.
- The Cowboys' offensive play calling during Rush’s two starts has been strong.
- Among running backs, Ezekiel Elliot is 17th in yards rushing while Tony Pollard is 23rd. Pollard is also 17th in yards receiving among running backs.
- Elliot is as well-rounded and steady as running backs can be while Pollard brings eye-popping explosion.
- My only complaint about the Cowboys' current running back deployments is they should try to get Pollard more passing targets.
- Washington has allowed the 12th most yards rushing and the seventh-fewest yards receiving to running backs this season.
- CeeDee Lamb is third in the league in target share (34%) and fifth in air yards share (44.9%).
- Washington is allowing the third most yards receiving on the fifth most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Washington has allowed the third most PPR points to slot receivers through the first three games.
- Lamb has played 94 snaps and has run 71 routes from the slot.
- Noah Brown has seen 85 snaps and ran 48 routes out of the slot this season. Brown is currently the second option in the Cowboys' passing attack with a 22.2% target share and a 28.2% air yards share.
- If Gallup returns this week we can reasonably expect the size and value of Brown’s role to decline.
- The Commanders have yielded the 13th most yards receiving on the 14th most receptions to tight ends this year.
- Schultz missed Monday Night Football last week, but he’s sixth amongst tight ends in target share (18.3%).
The Commanders Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has a trump card since he can line up Michah Parsons pretty much anywhere to create a mismatch. From a macro sense, I’m treating this trench matchup as a draw if LT Charles Leno is active. However, Parsons paired with Demarcus Lawrence is a challenge in the passing game against any opponent.
Washington’s group of young, talented pass catchers should challenge the Cowboys' secondary. If Washington wins, I could see its pass catchers play a big role throughout the game.
Notes and Observations
- The Commanders are 1-2 against the spread this season.
- The Commanders are 2-1 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Carson Wentz is sixth in the league in yards passing and 21st in yards per attempt.
- Wentz is 11th among quarterbacks with 57 yards rushing.
- Wentz is among the greatest quarterback conundrums you’ll face this season when it comes to sports betting. When he’s at his best, he can take a sneaky talented team like Washington and hang with just about anyone. At his worst, it looks a lot like it did in Philadelphia last week when he took nine sacks.
- Washington's running backs haven’t had notable success on the ground this season. However, Antonio Gibson is 10th in yards receiving while J.D. McKissic is fourth among running backs.
- Dallas has allowed the 15th most yards rushing and the 16th most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Curtis Samuel leads Washington in target share (23%), although he’s fourth in air yards share (10.5%).
- Terry McLaurin is second in target share (16.7%) but first in air yards share (32.9%).
- Jahan Dotson is the clear third option in this passing attack with a 13.5% target share and a 21.8% air yards share.
- Dallas has allowed the 10th fewest yards receiving on the 18th most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Logan Thomas has an 11.1% target share with a 14.8% air yards share.
- The Cowboys have allowed the third-fewest yards receiving on the 12th fewest receptions to tight ends this season.
- Wentz inconsistencies aside, Washington has six players factoring into its passing attack. This means they aren’t overly reliant on any one player. Washington is also deploying its pass catchers in roles that make sense for their individual skill sets.
This is What You’re Betting On in Cowboys vs. Commanders
A bet on the Cowboys is a bet on Rush continuing to play rock-solid football for the third game in a row. Through his first two starts, Rush has either played with a lead or has been within one score. Rush having to make up significant ground in a game the Cowboys are losing could look much different than the stable quarterback play he’s provided.
If you’re betting on Dallas, you’re betting on Dallas not falling behind by multiple scores. In that scenario, the Cowboys running back duo will continue to be a big part of the offense. You’re also betting on their defense just like you did against the Giants last week. A bet on the Cowboys can also be a direct bet against Wentz, who has become one of the more inconsistent quarterbacks in the league.
My biggest concerns with a Dallas bet are Washington’s fleet of valuable pass catchers giving Dallas secondary problems, and Rush sees some negative regression.
A bet on the Commanders is a bet on positive regression after a brutal week against Philadelphia, paired with negative regression from Rush. If I take Washington this week, that will be the foundation behind my play. Washington has a talented front four and a deep collection of pass catchers, which includes their running backs.
If Wentz plays well this week, this is a very winnable game. That represents your first concern if you’re considering a Commanders’ bet. You don’t know if you’re going to get good Wentz or bad Wentz. Your second biggest concern is the Cowboys pass rushing duo of Parsons and Lawrence. Parsons is one of the most unique defenders in the league, and he represents a mismatch against virtually every opponent.
Awards Market Ramifications: Parsons is a Defensive Player of the Year favorite who will be in the thick of this race as long as Dallas remains a competitive team.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Washington as a differentiator in winner pools. I may not take them in all of my winner pools, but I intend to take them in at least a few. Whichever take side I take in my confidence pools, I’ll be ranking that option as if this is a coin flip game because it is.
Spread Pool: In tournaments where I can get the Commanders as a +3.5 underdog, they will be among my considerations. In fact, taking the Commanders at +3.5 was among my first thoughts early this week after the line moved. I think there’s a good chance Washington wins this game outright, and there are a number of scenarios where they cover even if they lose. I bet on a projected range of outcomes, and I’m treating this one as a 60/40 option, barring any injury developments.
Survivor: This contest should be avoided for survivor purposes.
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