Betting
9/29/22
5 min read
Matchups Week 4: Browns vs. Falcons
Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Opening Spread: Falcons +2.5.
Opening Game Total: 48.
Team Totals: Falcons (22.75), Browns (25.25).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Falcons +2.5.
- This line has moved down to Falcons +1.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Falcons +1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Falcons +1.
- This total opened at 48-points.
- This total has moved up to 49.5 points as of Wednesday evening.
Notable Injuries
Falcons: Out: LB Deion Jones.
Browns: Questionable: LT Jedrick Wills, LG Joel Bitonio, RT Jack Conklin, Edge Myles Garrett, DT Taven Bryan, Edge Jadeveon Clowney, CB Denzel Ward.
The Falcons Offense vs. the Browns Defense
Three of the Browns' starting defensive linemen are on the current injury report, including Garrett. If they all play, Cleveland has a mild trench edge in this contest. Garrett specifically gives the Browns an individual matchup nightmare against just about any opponent.
Notes and Observations
- The Falcons are 3-0 against the spread this season.
- The Falcons are 3-0 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Marcus Mariota is 25th in yards passing but fifth in yards per attempt.
- Among quarterbacks, Mariota is fifth in yards rushing (96).
- Among running backs, Cordarrelle Patterson is third in yards rushing but only 45th in yards receiving.
- The Browns have allowed the seventh-fewest yards rushing and the eighth-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Our analyst Nic Bodiford did a very deep dive on Falcons rookie wide receiver Drake London this week.
- London has seen nearly 87% of his snaps on the perimeter this season. Cleveland has allowed the fourth-most PPR (points per reception) points to perimeter wide receivers through the first three games.
- Cleveland has surrendered the seventh-most yards receiving on the 16th-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Kyle Pitts is only 11th in yards receiving and 15th in receptions among tight ends. However, Pitts is coming off his best game of the season to date with five catches and 87 yards on eight targets against Seattle.
- The Browns have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving on the 11th-fewest receptions to tight ends this season.
- Keep in mind that Pitts sees significant time as an inline tight end, in the slot and on the perimeter.
The Browns Offense vs. the Falcons Defense
The Browns' top-five caliber offensive line has a significant advantage against Atlanta’s bottom-tier front. That said, Cleveland has both of its offensive tackles and their left guard on the injury report. If any of those players miss this contest, I’ll discuss those ramifications in Sunday’s live blog.
Notes and Observations
- The Browns are 2-1 against the spread this season.
- The Browns are 3-0 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Jacoby Brissett is 26th in the league in yards passing and yards per attempt.
- Brissett is 10th among quarterbacks with 64 yards rushing.
- Among running backs, Nick Chubb leads the league in rushing (341 yards), while teammate Kareem Hunt is 24th (151 yards).
- Through the first three games, the Falcons have allowed the 18th-most yards rushing to running backs.
- Amari Cooper is seventh in the league in target share (30.7%) and first in air yards share (54%) with a rock-solid 2.38 yards per route run and an 11.6 ADOT (average depth of target).
- The Falcons have surrendered the fifth-most yards receiving on the third-most receptions to opposing wide receivers this season.
- Jarvis Landry (7-114 on 9 targets), Cooper Kupp (11-108-2 on 14 targets) and Tyler Lockett (9-76 on 11 targets) have each carved up the Falcons' secondary behind considerable volume this season.
- After his Week 3 breakthrough, David Njoki is now 10th in yards receiving and seventh in receptions among tight ends.
- Atlanta has surrendered the fourth-most yards receiving on the fourth-most receptions to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Browns vs. Falcons
A bet on the Falcons is a bet on an overachieving team that has exceeded expectations in each game this season. Mariota, in particular, has played as well as anyone could have hoped so far. Patterson and London are off to strong starts while Pitts is coming off his best week of the season. If you’re betting on Atlanta, you are primarily betting on their offense continuing to exceed expectations. Your biggest concern as a Falcons bettor is Cleveland’s high-end running game backed by their top-five offensive line dominating this contest.
On the flip side, a bet on the Browns is a bet on their league-leading rushing attack and their top-five caliber offensive line. It’s a bet on Brissett continuing to play solid football, with Cooper serving as his primary target. If you’re betting on Cleveland, you should probably make that decision once we know if Garrett will play after being in a car accident earlier this week. If he does, the Browns have a reasonable path to keeping the Falcons' better-than-expected offense in check.
Browns vs. Falcons Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: If Garrett can play in this contest, he is a Defensive Player of the Year contender. London is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. Since Chubb is currently leading the league in rushing, he’s a current Offensive Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I currently lean towards Cleveland's side in winner pools, but we should consider this a coin flip game that belongs towards the bottom of your confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I have no current lean ATS on this matchup. If that changes as the week progress, I will discuss that in our Sunday live blog.
Survivor: This contest should be avoided for survivor purposes.
WATCH MORE: Robert Smith Breaks Down How Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson Is Turning Heads.
