Analysis
10/11/22
10 min read
High-Value Touch Report: Week 5 Rushing and Receiving Data
It's important to look beyond the box scores and examine the high-value touches for rushers and receivers. Typically, some of the top fantasy football options sit atop the high-value touch leaderboards.
However, sometimes we find certain players potentially over or underperforming for various reasons. We won't only examine the touches, but also the number of opportunities (targets) pass catchers receive since that's also important. Each week, we'll analyze the weekly and season-long data for high-value touches and opportunities. In last week's installment, Jets' running back Breece Hall highlighted the cover photo, and he smashed in Week 5. Let's see what the Week 5 high-value touch report holds, and hit me up on Twitter if you've got any questions.
High-Value Touches: Red Zone Rushing
In Week 5, Broncos' RB Melvin Gordon led with six carries and zero touchdowns in the red zone through Sunday night. Meanwhile, Titans' RB Derrick Henry was second with five carries but had two scores in the red area. Miles Sanders (Eagles), Dalvin Cook (Vikings) and Michael Carter (Jets) all had four carries. However, Sanders scored zero touchdowns, while Cook and Carter finished with two touchdowns.
Last week, on multiple podcasts, I said you should immediately trade away Najee Harris in redraft
I listed Breece Hall as a realistic trade target
After Hall had 197 yards & 27.7 fantasy points in Week 5, that's no longer possible
New spicy take 🌶️
Etienne >> Najee in redraft
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) October 10, 2022
Carter's teammate, Breece Hall, also had four carries and scored once in the red zone. Overall, Carter had an inefficient performance with ten carries, 21 rushing yards and two scores. He caught both targets for 12 receiving yards. Against the Dolphins, Hall had a highlight reel catch with a 79-yard reception and 83 yards after the catch for the game. Hall nearly reached the century mark on the ground (97 rushing yards), plus two receptions on two targets for 100 receiving yards.
While Carter and Hall continue to share the backfield, we love Hall's usage and talent for fantasy and real life. Too bad I didn't listen to my own advice since I wrote up Hall as a running back to target in the dead zone. Cleveland's duo of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb tied for three rushes in the red area with one touchdown each. Hunt and Chubb look similar to Green Bay's backfield of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, with one back being more efficient than the other, yet both have weekly viability.
Then there's an interesting trio in Joshua Kelley (Chargers), Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) and Tyler Allgeier (Falcons), with three carries each. Austin Ekeler ran well against the Chargers against the Browns. He finished with nearly 200 total yards (173 rushing and 26 receiving yards) on 20 touches and two scores. Don't blow your FAAB (free agent acquisition budget) on Kelley, though he garnered a few high-value touches and scored. We expected Allgeier to struggle against the Buccaneers' run defense, and the entire Falcons' offense struggled, though the score remained close.
Monitor Damien Harris's (Patriots) hamstring injury since Stevenson has increased his routes run in 2022 and looks explosive. The table above shows the comparison before Week 5 between Harris and Stevenson. Last season, without Harris in two contests, Stevenson averaged 16.2 PPR/G with 19 opportunities and 77 yards rushing and receiving. Before Week 5, Stevenson averaged 9.2 PPR/G, 12.5 carries and targets with 60.1 total yards. In Week 5, Stevenson averaged 4.44 yards after contact per attempt (No. 5). Expect the Patriots to lean on Stevenson with Harris out, posting near RB1-type numbers.
High-Value Opportunities: Red Zone Receiving
As a Chase Edmonds (Dolphins) enthusiast, I'll take a massive loss expecting him to be the lead rusher and a sneaky good pass-catcher. Unfortunately, Raheem Mostert has taken over the early down role, and Edmonds barely earned any opportunities last week. In Week 4, Edmonds had one carry and one target on third down. Plus, he caught his only high-value receiving target in goal-to-go situations for a touchdown. I held out hope for another week, and that ended poorly against the Jets. Here's the final jab for Edmonds, Miami's third-string back, Myles Gaskin, ranked first in Week 5 with three red zone targets amongst running backs.
J.D. McKissic (Commanders) and Ekeler tied for two red-zone receiving opportunities, and Ekeler has six (No. 1) across the season. Interestingly, McKissic's two red zone targets from Sunday make up his only two this season. Since we have many running backs with one red zone target in Week 5, we'll move onto high-value touches in goal-to-go situations.
WATCH MORE: Dave Wannstedt Wasn't a Fan of the Chargers' Fourth Down Decision Making
High-Value Touches: Goal-To-Go Rushing
With high-value touches in goal-to-go situations, we'll look at season-long numbers since it's a small sample. Bengals' RB Joe Mixon (12) and Lions' RB Jamaal Williams (11) are the only running backs with double-digits in high-value rushes. Then we have three backs tied with seven, Chubb, Commanders' RB Antonio Gibson and 49ers' RB Jeff Wilson. Mixon is the only back inside the top 14 high-value rushes in goal-to-go situations without a touchdown.
Jacksonville's James Robinson is tied for 15th with five high-value carries and joins Mixon as the only other running back inside the top 20 without a touchdown. Williams has four scores with Chubb at three. While Williams likely can't keep up that efficiency, the Lions average the sixth-most rushing yards per game (151.4) and are fourth in yards before contact. Chubb has continued to be an efficient and explosive back with a 54.4% rush share (No. 13), 6.05 YPC (No. 3) and 4.23 yards after contact. The Browns rank first with 192.4 rushing yards per game and are second in yards after contact.
High-Value Opportunities: Goal-To-Go Receiving
During the past couple of weeks, the biggest buy-low options included Hall and Buffalo WR Gabe Davis. Throughout the first five games, the top running back to buy is Mixon with the lack of touchdowns but the most high-value carries. Furthermore, Mixon ranks first with 18 routes run in goal-to-go situations, yet only two targets (10.5%). To further emphasize Mixon's role, he ranked first in expected points per game (22.9) and last in fantasy points over expectation per game (-8.7) before Week 5.
Six other backs totaled 10 or more routes in goal-to-go situations: Ekeler, Devin Singletary (Bills), Jonathan Taylor (Colts), Darrell Henderson (Rams), Travis Etienne (Jaguars) and Hall. Among this group, Henderson has zero targets, Ekeler leads with four and Hall is in second with three.
Let's move to all pass-catchers, including receivers and tight ends in high-value opportunities.
Before Monday night, Jets' WR Garrett Wilson was tied for first with Bengals' WR Ja'Marr Chase in goal-to-go targets. Then Chiefs' TE Travis Kelce said move over with his five targets against the Raiders that resulted in four, yes, four receiving scores. It was such a wild outlier game with Kelce catching seven of eight targets for 25 receiving yards and four scores. Those five goal-to-go high-value targets catapulted Kelce to No. 1 with nine on the season. Back to the rest of the receivers atop the high-value opportunity leaderboard.
On the season, Chase caught four touchdowns versus Wilson's zero. That indicates Wilson could regress from an efficiency perspective given the high-value receiving opportunities continue.
WATCH MORE: How Will the Jets Fair Against the Packers?
Lions' WR Josh Reynolds has six targets in goal-to-go situations tied with Cardinals' TE Zach Ertz. With Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving limited reps after returning from injury, Reynolds led the team with targets (10), receptions (6) and receiving yards (92). Reynolds ranked 16th with a 40% air yards share and a 31.2% target share (No. 12) in Week 5. Keep an eye on Reynolds and the injuries in the receiver room in Week 7 when the Lions return from their bye week.
Three Rams pass-catchers garnered five targets in goal-to-go situations in Tyler Higbee, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. Higbee, Harris, and Vikings' WR Justin Jefferson have zero touchdowns among pass-catchers with five targets in these situations. Higbee and Kupp have fared well, with Robinson being a bust so far in 2022.
Part of the Rams' struggles relates to their offensive line allowing 21 sacks (No. 1). QB Matthew Stafford averages 5.7 yards per attempt and a 67.6 passer rating (No. 17) when pressured, per TruMediaSports. From a rushing perspective, the Rams average 0.76 yards before contact (No. 30). Furthermore, the Rams rank 29th in total offensive EPA (-36.5) between the Commanders and the Steelers.
It would make sense to involve Robinson more in the passing game, though I faded him in the offseason. While it's positive to see the high-value targets for Robinson, he ranks 83rd in target share (12%) and 69th with a 16.9% air yards share among receivers with a minimum of 15 targets.
Third & Fourth Down Receiving Opportunities
Using the raw totals of targets on third and fourth down, Arizona WR Marquise Brown and St. Brown are the only two players with more than 20 targets. With so many Moores in the league underproducing, maybe we should've targeted Wilsons and Browns. All kidding aside, Cardinals' QB Kyler Murray has been looking toward Brown often and in critical situations.
Buy low on St. Brown with their bye in Week 6. I would still value St. Brown as a borderline WR1 given his high-value opportunities, so offer someone like Steelers' RB Najee Harris straight up, or Chiefs' RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire plus a receiver for him. Browns' WR Amari Cooper might be the most surprising member of this list.
However, he has performed pleasantly well as WR14 in PPR leagues on a team with a concentrated target tree. Cooper ranks 12th with a 27.7% target share and eighth with a 38.4% air yards share. On a team averaging 32.2 pass attempts per game (No. 21), he lacks efficiency with 1.8 yards per route run (No. 38). His profile is similar to that of Texans' WR Brandin Cooks in that Cooper garners a high amount of the team's receiving opportunities.
When filtering by the percentage of team opportunities, Saints' WR Chris Olave (39%) ranks first with Eagles' WR A.J. Brown (37.8%) in second on third and fourth down. Once again, we have a second Eagles receiver in DeVonta Smith at 32.4% (No. 8), as QB Jalen Hurts and the passing offense is pushing to be one of the top offenses in the league. The Eagles rank fifth in total offensive EPA (21.13) behind the Geno Smith-led Seahawks, what a world we live in.
Panthers' WR D.J. Moore comes in at sixth with a 33.3% target share on third and fourth down with 14 targets - tying him for 11th. Moore averages a 24.2% target share (No. 21) and a 34.4% air yards share (No. 15). However, Moore's efficiency has been brutal, with an 0.517 receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), which ranks 74th. He also averages 1.2 YPRR in 2022 after finishing with 2.0 or higher since 2019. It doesn't help that the Panthers' offense ranks 31st in total offensive EPA. With QB Baker Mayfield banged up, maybe backup QB P.J. Walker can help Moore thrive for a week or two.
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