Analysis

10/17/22

9 min read

Five Fantasy Football Takeaways: NFL Week 6

By Nic Bodiford

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Welcome to The Five Takeaways! Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com. Enjoy!

Fantasy Football’s Best Quarterbacks Are Dual Threats

• The elite fantasy quarterbacks have started separating from the QB1 field. The average points scored among the top-five quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow) is 147.06 fantasy points. The remaining fantasy football QB1s, QB6-QB12, average just 101.05 fantasy points.
• Through an elite combination of passing and rushing, 2022’s top-five quarterbacks are teaching next year’s drafters a lesson. 
• The table below shows the top-five fantasy quarterbacks ranked against their peers. For passing statistics, a 100-pass attempt minimum filter was applied. For rushing statistics, a 10-carry minimum filter was applied. 

• While Allen is simply a dominant football force, even the rushing-oriented quarterbacks, Jackson and Hurts, find themselves top-six in at least one major passing category.
• Gunslingers Mahomes and Burrow, whose previous knee injuries have somewhat pushed them off of their rushing paces from years past, likewise find themselves top-six in at least one of the major rushing categories.
• The fantasy landscape has changed. Banking on the late-round quarterback strategy is now far too costly to employ with regularity. 
• Fantasy managers would be wise to use a bench spot for Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback Malik Willis, if possible. 

Buy Rookie Tight End Daniel Bellinger

• Through five career games, Bellinger has 15 receptions on 17 targets for 139 yards receiving and two touchdowns for the 5-1 Giants.
• Bellinger has taken 246 offensive snaps this year. The table below lists Bellinger’s advanced receiving statistics, ranked in parentheses, among the rest of the NFL’s tight ends. A 200-snap minimum threshold was applied to data from Weeks 1-6, with 100-snap minimums applied to Weeks 1-3 and 4-6.

• Bellinger has improved his target-earning ability and increased his yardage efficiency. The per-route efficiency increases are leading to massive fantasy improvements. 
• New York averaged 18.66 points per game during the first three weeks of the season. Their per-game scoring average between Weeks 4-6 has risen to 23.66.
• As Bellinger develops as a pass catcher and fellow rookie, wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (knee), gets healthier, everyone in the Giants’ offense will benefit. 
• Robinson returned to play in Week 6, after injuring his knee just nine snaps into New York’s Week 1 win against the Tennessee Titans. While Robinson stormed his way to a massive 36.4% targets per route run rate, Bellinger commanded a team-high five targets. 
• With two dynamic receiving weapons and do-it-all running back Saquon Barkley, the Giants are on the upswing. 
• Fantasy managers who need a set-it-and-forget-it TE1 should add Bellinger off of the waiver wire this week. A talented tight end in a powerful offense is a highly valuable fantasy asset. 

Buy Rookie Wide Receiver Tyquan Thornton

• Thornton kicked off the preseason by flashing his 4.28-second speed on downfield routes, while also deftly working the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. 
• Thornton’s exhibition season was cut short with a broken collarbone in preseason Week 2, but the young wide receiver quickly made an impact when he returned.
• While Week 5 brought little to write home about, New England featured Thornton heavily in its Week 6 game plan. 

• Slot receiver Jakobi Meyers, who leads New England in targets, is likely to maintain his high-volume, high-efficiency role as an intermediate-depth weapon. But, Thornton can still carve out a role as either the 1A or 1B option.
• Wide receiver DeVante Parker has operated as the team’s primary perimeter receiver but has struggled to find his footing.
• Parker's 13.1% targets per route run and 1.51 yards per route run rank last among Patriots wide receivers with at least 10 targets. 
• Thornton should pass the lackluster Parker well before New England’s Week 10 bye. The time to add Thornton off of waivers is now. 
• In Week 7, the Patriots face the Chicago Bears at home. Chicago’s 64.6% catch rate allowed ranks 12th-most in the NFL, per The 33rd Team’s Edge tool.
• In Week 8, the Patriots travel to New York for a bout with the Jets, whose 67.5% catch rate ranks fifth most in the NFL, per The 33rd Team’s Edge tool.

PPR WR1s: Experience Matters Early

• The table below compares the top-12 scoring wide receivers, in full-point per reception (PPR) scoring. The wide receivers are ranked among their peers at the position who have earned at least 30 targets this year.

• Davante Adams was on a bye in Week 6.
• The top three PPR WR1s have been in the league for at least five years. 
• Five of the PPR WR1s are in the year-six-to-nine range.
• Four of the PPR WR1s have played fewer than three full seasons.
• There are no rookies in the PPR WR1 ranks.
• Ten of the PPR WR1s are top 12 in at least one of the per-route efficiency metrics.
• All four of the top-four PPR WR1s rank top 12 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics.
• Per-route efficiency metrics are highly correlated with PPR WR1 production.

PPR WR2s: Volatile Youngsters Are Rising

• The table below compares the top 13-24 scoring wide receiver in full-point per reception (PPR) scoring. The wide receivers are ranked among their peers at the position who have earned at least 30 targets this year.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown sits top 12 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics but has played in just four games.
• Chris Olave missed Week 6 with a concussion. He is top 12 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics. It is only a matter of time until Olave solidifies himself as a PPR WR1. 
• Gabriel Davis missed a game with an ankle injury and has just 26 targets on the year.
• Courtland Sutton has not yet played his Week 6 game (Monday Night Football).
• Mike Williams has not yet played his Week 6 game (Monday Night Football).
• Michael Pittman Jr. missed Week 2 with a quad injury.
• Mike Evans missed Week 3 due to a suspension.
• Six of the PPR WR2s have played less than three full seasons.
• Four of the PRR WR2s have been in the league for at least five seasons.
• Four of the PPR WR2s are top 12 in at least one of the per-route efficiency metrics. 
• Two of the PPR WR2s are top 12 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics.
• Six of the PPR WR2s rank 13-14 in at least one of the per-route efficiency metrics. 
• Two of the PPR WR2s rank 13-24 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics.
• Five of the PPR WR2s rank worse than WR24 in both of the per-route efficiency metrics.
• While per-route efficiency metrics are somewhat correlated with PPR WR2 fantasy production, there is far more volatility in PPR WR2 scoring than in the PPR WR1 group.
• Davis is a player to monitor closely. His usage/production level combination is unique.
• It is possible the variance in the per-route efficiency metrics can be attributed to young players taking on more responsibilities as the year progresses. Another PPR WR1/2 data check-in will be done later in the season and the findings will be compared here.

WATCH MORE: Trey Wingo Recaps NFL Week 6

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Nic Bodiford

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Nic Bodiford contributes to The 33rd Team's fantasy football department and works elsewhere as an analyst and editor in written, video and audio mediums. These works can be found at Pro Football Focus, 4for4, Nerdball and Fake Teams. Nic moonlights at Legendary Upside by editing Pat Kerrane's weekly article, The Walkthrough.