Analysis
10/13/22
8 min read
Bills vs. Chiefs Week 6 Scouting Report: Grades and Key Matchups
The Scouting Report for Sunday afternoon’s Bills vs Chiefs game is produced by The 33rd Team’s Scouting Department, led by former Eagles, Cardinals, and Ravens personnel executive T.J. McCreight and assisted by scouts Justin Casey, Kevin Cohn and Evan Pritt.
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
- This is a matchup between our two top-ranked quarterbacks. Allen and Mahomes are playing at an elite level and have their teams looking prepared for deep playoff runs. Mahomes has had Allen's number, with a 3-1 head-to-head record, including the instant classic in last year's divisional round. Mahomes and Allen one-upped each other the entire game with the Chiefs winning in overtime.
- Mahomes is having another highly productive season. He is first in touchdown passes with 15, second in passer rating at 110.5 and fourth in yards passing with 1,398.
- Mahomes is everything you could ask for in a quarterback. He has elite accuracy and arm strength. He can fit the ball into tight windows and put it where only his guy can get it. He does a phenomenal job of throwing his receivers open. Plus, he can drop his arm slot and throw off balance.
- Mahomes is dangerous from everywhere on the field. He can throw on the move or, just as easily, pick up yards with his legs. As much as we think of him for the big plays and freakishly athletic throws, he has done a fantastic job taking what is there this year. With a less explosive offense, he has shown the ability to take the seven-yard crosser and keep the chains moving.
- This has been the most significant improvement we have seen in his game. He's playing at an elite level and elevating his teammates. Other names are shouted louder, but Mahomes should be getting a lot more consideration for the MVP award at this point.
- As good as Allen is, he still seems to get better every week. For example, he had one of the best first halves in NFL history last week. Allen is second in the league with 14 touchdown passes and fourth with a passer rating of 107.4.
- Allen is built for Buffalo and built for January football. With his arm strength, he can cut through the wind. So the weather will not be an issue.
- As a defense, you have to converge on Allen in the pocket. He is not easy to bring down because he is so big and strong. Like a young Ben Roethlisberger, an arm tackle will not sack him. Defenders must not allow him to squirm out of their grasp.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. Bills' Defense
- Kelce is coming off a huge Monday night performance against the Raiders in which he caught four touchdown passes from Mahomes. He ranks third in total points with 44, most amongst non-kickers. In addition, he is tied for first with Browns RB Nick Chubb for most TDs in the league (seven).
- Kelce is so dynamic and hard to stop. You can line him up at the traditional in-line tight end position, in the slot or split out wide. He does an excellent job of using his large stature to position himself against defenders, making it a challenge to cover him with a defensive back. He also has excellent speed for a tight end, making it hard for linebackers to run with him. He has great hands and can go up above the rim, making him a matchup nightmare.
- Bills safety Jordan Poyer leads the NFL in interceptions but is dealing with a rib injury and may not play in this game.
- The Bills have the personnel to cover or at least try to cover Kelce. When you study the Bills' defense, you see them cover tight ends in various ways.
- Both of their linebackers — Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds — are outstanding in coverage and have the size and the length to match up with Kelce. However, Edmunds may not play because he is dealing with a hamstring injury.
- With Edmunds injured, expect the Bills to pepper different looks and players to disrupt Kelce.
- Cornerbacks Taron Johnson, Dane Jackson and Kaiir Elam will take their turns in coverage, and they will work to disrupt his routes and re-route him off the line of scrimmage.
- The Bills will bracket him on both sides and work to confuse Mahomes with different zone looks, especially on third down.
- The issue for the Bills is in the red zone. The field gets tighter, and there is little room for error. As we saw last week, Kelce is a load to handle near the goalline.
Bills WRs Diggs and Davis vs. Chiefs CBs Sneed, Watson & Fenton
- Diggs is the constant in this offense and one of the top all-around receivers in the game. He doesn't have rare physical traits, but he is incredibly consistent and ultra-competitive. He clearly has Allen's complete trust, and their sense of timing and feel is as good as any duo in the game.
- Allen completes 75% of his passes when targeting Diggs. Diggs is third in the league in catches, fourth in yards receiving and tied for second in touchdown catches. He will line up all over the field and run a diverse route tree.
- Diggs is obviously Allen's go-to guy, but when Davis is right, he takes the offense to another level with deep-threat prowess, just as he did against the Steelers on Sunday.
- He struggled while playing through an ankle injury he sustained in the season opener. He only missed Week 2, but last week was the first week he was a full participant in practice.
- Davis has only 20 targets and 11 receptions, but he is averaging an astounding 28 yards per catch, and his 16.7 air yards per target rank second in the league. He lines up outside and does not run a varied route tree. He is a mediocre route runner at best.
- He has good hands away from his body, but he will fail to haul in some relatively routine balls. He doesn't have explosive speed, but his long strides eat up ground and catch defenders off guard.
- In their divisional round matchup last season, Davis had eight catches for 201 yards receiving and four TDs, while they held Diggs to just three catches for seven yards.
- Sneed is the Chiefs' best man-to-man cover player with the size and length to jam and disrupt the release of stronger receivers. He is a chess piece they like to line up in different places, especially in the slot where he is also an excellent blitzer.
- He is their best matchup when Diggs lines up inside, and he is second in the league with 29 tackles on passing plays.
- If first-round pick Trent McDuffie is not ready to return from injured reserve this week, expect the Bills to continue the trend of testing Fenton when he is isolated in man coverage.
- Fenton lacks the strength and length to press and struggles to stay in phase when running vertically. As a result, he can get outmuscled and lose connection at the breakpoint. He's a smart player in zone coverage, who will come off his assignment to react and make a tackle. He simply gets beat by more talented players.
- Watson has performed well as a rookie (for a seventh-round pick). He has good physical tools but doesn't play the ball particularly well at the catch point. However, we do like the way he competes and tackles. He should continue to get better with experience.
- The Chiefs have given up 13 completions of more than 20 yards, which ranks 15th. The Bills rank third with 20 completions of more than 20 yards and first with three completions of more than 50 yards.
Extra Points
- The Chiefs have eliminated the Bills from the playoffs at Arrowhead two years in a row. So, there has to be a little extra motivation for the Bills as they return to where their last two seasons ended.
- This game could go a long way in determining home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. You can be sure the Chiefs want no part of going up to Buffalo in late January.
Bills' Keys to Victory
- Take advantage of your man-to-man opportunities.
- Make someone other than Kelce beat you in the red zone.
Chiefs' Keys to Victory
- Target Buffalo's injury issues. Whether that's the guys who aren't at 100% or the replacements for injured starters.
- Make the Bills work for their points and put drives together. Don't give up the big plays with blown assignments.
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