Expert Analysis
10/2/24
11 min read
5 NFL Head Coaches On The Hot Seat At 2024 Season's Quarter Mark
We’re at the quarter-pole in the 2024 NFL season, and the first four weeks are in the books. Pressure is already ratcheting up on many head coaches, as their seasons have not been off to great starts.
Based on expectations and performance, here’s my ranking of the five head coaches who have the hottest seats at this juncture, with many others to follow as the season unfolds.
Coaches On The Hot Seat
5. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys 
With great expectations always the case in Dallas, the Dallas Cowboys' 2-2 start is problematic for McCarthy. Dallas has beaten the struggling Browns and Giants on the road but lost at home to New Orleans (in a 44-19 blowout) and Baltimore.
Rumblings about his job security have been ongoing for the past several years due to Dallas winning only one playoff game in McCarthy’s five years at the helm. Despite having a star-studded roster, Dallas has not made it to an NFC title game under McCarthy, and it’s now been 29 years since the team’s last Super Bowl appearance.
The pressure intensified after last season’s disastrous home loss in the wild-card round to the Green Bay Packers, a game Dallas trailed 27-0 in the second quarter. McCarthy’s contract was not extended by owner Jerry Jones, who wants to see an extended playoff run before a new deal is forthcoming.
McCarthy runs the offense, and the Cowboys rank 13th in total offense with a running game that ranks last. QB Dak Prescott is the league’s highest-paid player after signing a $60 million per year extension, but his production is down. His 93.6 passer rating ranks 15th after he was second last year at 105.9. The defense ranks 26th overall and is 27th against the run.
With their inconsistency thus far, it’s no slam dunk for the Cowboys to even reach the playoffs, and a difficult next seven weeks — at Pittsburgh, home vs. Detroit, at San Francisco, at Atlanta, home vs. Philadelphia and Houston, and at Washington — won't make things easier.
There are also major injury concerns with two of the team’s top defensive players: Micah Parsons (high ankle sprain, could miss the next two games) and DeMarcus Lawrence (on IR with a Lisfranc injury, expected to be out for 4-8 weeks).
Jones is unlikely to fire McCarthy during the season, but he does have a former head coach in Mike Zimmer. Zimmer is Dallas’ defensive coordinator and an easy choice to be an interim head coach if the next two games go badly before their bye week.
4. Brian Daboll, New York Giants 
Things looked rosy for Daboll in his first season as the New York Giants coach in 2022 when the team made the playoffs and won a wild-card game at Minnesota. QB Daniel Jones had his best season under Daboll’s tutelage, and Daboll was named NFL Coach of the Year.
Since then — not so good. The offensive line was awful in 2023, with a league-worst 85 sacks allowed. Jones played only six games before an ACL injury ended his season.
The G-Men dipped to 6-11, and there were reports of Daboll verbally abusing members of his coaching staff, which didn’t please Giants owner John Mara, who talked with Daboll about calming down. That situation seems to have improved this year, but the record hasn’t with a 1-3 start.
After getting blown out at home by the Vikings in the opener, the last three games have been decided by one score, as the defense is keeping the team in games.
The Giants' defense is playing fine in yards allowed (ranked 12th) but has only four takeaways. Daboll runs the 21st-ranked offense that badly misses Saquon Barkley and ranks 30th in rushing. The offensive line is protecting better (only nine sacks allowed), but Jones’ 80.8 passer rating ranks 23rd, even with a dynamic first-round rookie WR in Malik Nabers.
Worst of all, the team is 30th in scoring (15 points per game) and has scored no touchdowns in its last four home games.
If this lack of production on offense and by his quarterback continues, it will likely cost Daboll his job — most likely after the season — if the Giants remain at the bottom of the NFC East. The next five weeks are challenging. They play at Seattle, vs. Cincinnati and Philadelphia at home, at Pittsburgh, and at home against Washington.
3. Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles 
There’s no fan base like in Philly to let a coach and team know when things aren’t going well. That was the case entering this season after the Philadelphia Eagles’ surprising late-season downturn in 2023 when the team lost five of its last six regular season games after a 10-1 start, losing the NFC East to Dallas.
Worse yet, the Eagles were blown out by Tampa Bay 32-9 in the wild-card round.
This season started well with a victory against the Packers in Brazil. Since then, the Eagles lost at home on a late drive by the Falcons, had a nice win in New Orleans, and then were again hammered by the Buccaneers in Tampa.
Sirianni went from a Super Bowl coach in 2022 to the hot seat, as the Eagles’ play calling that he is part of has been questioned, along with his handling of QB Jalen Hurts. Hurts went from a Second-Team All-Pro two years ago to a turnover machine (seven this season to tie for the league lead).
Is Sirianni on good terms with his $51 million per year quarterback after a reported rift last season? Things are supposedly better between them, but it could unravel if the season goes south. And if it comes down to the quarterback or the coach, Owner Jeff Lurie and GM Howie Roseman will stick with Hurts, who has too much dead money to trade or release.
The Eagles rank 31st with a minus-6 turnover ratio. Vic Fangio was hired as defensive coordinator but the D isn’t helping the cause with only two takeaways through Week 4 and a No. 29 ranking in total defense.
It didn’t help Sirianni to be missing three key players on offense in Tampa — star receivers A.J. Brown (out the last three games with a hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion), along with All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (concussion).
This week’s bye comes at a good time to give these players some recovery time before a four-game stretch of winnable games — home vs. the Browns, at the Giants and Bengals, and home against the Jaguars.
The schedule gets more challenging after that so Sirianni needs to get his team back on track quickly if they are going to meet the expectations of an NFC title contender after adding Saquon Barkley on offense and reinforcements on defense through free agency and the draft.
Anything less than a playoff berth and a good postseason showing would likely mean the end for Sirianni.
2. Robert Saleh, New York Jets 
The New York Jets laid an egg with their 10-9 home loss to the Broncos on Sunday. It’s been an up-and-down season for Saleh and his team, who looked bad in the opening loss at San Francisco, rebounded with wins against the lowly Titans and Patriots, and then unraveled in Week 4.
Saleh’s defense has played well in yards allowed (ranked second overall and first in pass defense) but has only four takeaways. The offense is struggling, ranking 23rd overall and 18th in passing, which certainly is not the expectation with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, even if he’s coming off his Achilles injury that derailed the Jets’ 2023 season.
The Jets hoped their offensive line had improved significantly through free agency and the draft after giving up 64 sacks last season (fourth most). But they’re not running the ball well (27th ranked), offensive stars Garrett Wilson (20 receptions, 191 yards) and Breece Hall (174 rushing yards, 3.1 yards per carry) are off to slow starts, and Rodgers was beaten up by the Broncos, who had five sacks and 14 QB hits.
Rodgers was limping at the end of the game and said his knee was sore as he and the Jets head to London to take on the NFL’s top pass-rushing team (17 sacks) in the unbeaten Vikings.
Saleh is also catching heat for his undisciplined team that had 13 penalties for 90 yards in the Denver loss. There were five false starts, which brought on a public discussion and somewhat of a disagreement between Saleh and Rodgers regarding the QB’s cadence when he tries to draw the defense offsides, but Saleh believes it’s contributing to the false starts.
With Rodgers back, the expectation of Jets management and the fan base is to be a playoff team and make a run at the AFC East title, with Buffalo having lost several starters and Miami missing Tua Tagovailoa for several weeks.
The 2-2 Jets are only one game behind Buffalo as they head into a challenging three-week stretch against the Vikings, Buffalo at the Meadowlands on Monday night, and then at Pittsburgh on a Sunday night.
Saleh needs to have some success in the short term and during the long haul this season, or the buzzards will be circling him. Rodgers’ injury bought Saleh another year to prove he can lead the Jets to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. If that doesn’t happen, Saleh is almost certain to be fired.
1.Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Pederson tops the hot seat list and could be a goner soon. It’s a mess on both sides of the ball for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who blew a late lead on Sunday to lose at division rival Houston and fall to 0-4.
The offense ranks 25th overall and has the 28th-ranked passing attack. The defense is 30th in yards and points allowed and last in takeaways with only one.
The heat was on Pederson at the end of last season when Jacksonville lost five of its last six games to lose the AFC South to the Texans. With four losses in as many weeks, that makes nine losses in the last 10 games, which leaves Pederson barely hanging on.
He has a very unhappy owner in Shad Khan, who reportedly was livid after the Jaguars were routed 47-10 in Buffalo in Week 3 in front of a national Monday night audience.
Besides the losing streak, Pederson’s biggest problem is that he’s supposed to be a quarterback guru, but Trevor Lawrence ranks 26th in passer rating at 78.9, his worst numbers since his rookie year, and has completed only 53.3 percent of his passes (32nd-ranked).
In Pederson’s first year as the Jaguars' coach, Lawrence had his career-best 95.2 passer rating (25 TD passes, eight interceptions, and a 66.3 percent completion rate) when the Jaguars won the division title and had their big comeback playoff victory against the Chargers in the wild-card round.
That’s the kind of performance that is expected from Lawrence, who is tied for the second-highest contract in the league at $55 million per year in new money on his extension signed in June. Any head coach — and especially an offensive-oriented one — will take a lot of heat when his big-money quarterback struggles.
Khan expected the Jaguars to battle the Texans for the AFC South title. They’re already three games behind Houston, and if Jacksonville falls to 0-5 with a home loss to Indianapolis this Sunday, don’t be surprised if Khan pulls the plug on Pederson before the two-week stint in London to face the Bears and Patriots.
If Pederson survives to make the trip overseas, he’ll have Green Bay, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Detroit to face before the bye week. It's not a promising situation for a coach who won a Super Bowl with the Eagles seven years ago.
