Betting
11/21/24
6 min read
5 Best PrizePicks More-Less Picks To Smash in NFL Week 12
There are only a few more weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, which means a few more opportunities to hammer some PrizePicks.
Week 12 is highlighted by plenty of divisional matchups, but it's the primetime games that should be getting most of the attention. The Green Bay Packers seek revenge from last year's playoff exit against the San Francisco 49ers, while the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Los Angeles Rams in a potential future playoff matchup.
The week's slate of games is capped off by another potential future postseason matchup between Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens and Justin Herbert's Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football.
There are a ton of exciting matchups to keep an eye on during this week's slate, as well as a handful of PrizePicks more-less picks that look like great value.
Will Levis let his shoulder heal up after trying to battle the injury for a good chunk of the season.
— Logan 🥥🌴 (@Logan2K07) November 19, 2024
There definitely is something here, he's put together some of the best film at his position against 2 elite defenses in LAC and MIN these last 2 weeks during his return. 👀 pic.twitter.com/X8bOEYrRLo
Will Levis 188.5 Passing Yards: More
Will Levis has looked like a much more competent quarterback in his last two games since returning from injury.
While it hasn't been perfect, Levis threw for 295 yards, one touchdown, and one interception against the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday. That's an impressive performance, considering it was against the No. 1 defense by DVOA in the NFL.
The Houston Texans present a similar matchup, ranking third in defensive DVOA. Their secondary features some exciting young playmakers like Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr., along with an emerging rookie safety in Calen Bullock.
However, Levis generated explosives against Minnesota and will likely have to air it out a lot against Houston in what could be a lopsided loss. That should give him plenty of opportunities to get over 188.5 passing yards.
DeMario Douglas 37.5 Receiving Yards: Less
A few dozen receiving yards doesn't seem like a lot for DeMario Douglas, but the Miami Dolphins present a tough matchup for New England's slot receiver.
A 5-foot-8 slot receiver, Douglas looked like a steal as a sixth-round pick in 2023, carving out a role quickly in New England's offense as a rookie. However, he hasn't taken a step up this season, even with Drake Maye under center. In fact, his 1.48 yards per route run in 2024 is a 0.22-yard dropoff from last season.
Douglas has broken 38 receiving yards five times this season but could be shut down by Miami if it plans on utilizing veteran corner Jalen Ramsey in the slot more frequently. If that happens, don't expect Douglas to get much work done against a much larger and more physical matchup.
Josh Jacobs, mid-run, tells Jaylon Johnson to come hit him. pic.twitter.com/AoZDHmeury
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) November 18, 2024
Josh Jacobs 70.5 Rushing Yards: More
Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley get all of the love, but Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs is quietly having an awesome season for the Packers.
Jacobs is third in the NFL with 838 rushing yards. He's also fifth with 3.64 yards after contact per rush, second in total yards after contact, and seventh with 40 first downs generated on the ground, according to Pro Football Focus.
The former Raiders running back has quickly found his footing in Green Bay and is now firing on all cylinders. In fact, he's had at least 70 rushing yards in five of his last six games.
The San Francisco 49ers are always a tough matchup for the Packers, but their down year is highlighted by a struggling run defense that's 19th in DVOA. To make matters worse, the 49ers could be without their biggest defensive star, Nick Bosa, who missed practice on Wednesday with hip and oblique injuries.
If Bosa can't go, the Packers should be able to open up the playbook, leading to another big day for Jacobs.
David Njoku 4.5 Receptions: Less
The Cleveland Browns aren't afraid to air it out with Jameis Winston, but the Thursday Night Football matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers will be a tough one for tight end David Njoku.
Njoku had the best season of his career in 2023, catching six touchdowns with 882 yards. However, he's been unable to get back to that kind of production this season due to injuries and a chaotic quarterback situation.
Still, Njoku is coming off his most productive game of the season, catching all nine of his targets for 81 yards. The problem with replicating that kind of performance is that the Steelers are a brutal matchup for tight ends, with so many athletic and young linebackers to cover tight ends.
With how well the Steelers have played lately, it may be hard for Winston to find his safety blanket on Thursday night.
Jalen Hurts 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns: More
Until Jalen Hurts gets bored of finding the end zone with his legs, this will keep being good value for a PrizePicks more-less pick.
Despite Jason Kelce's retirement, the tush push continues to be a staple play for the Eagles. That's not the only way that Hurts is scoring on the ground, either, racking up 417 yards and 11 scores on the ground this season.
The Los Angeles Rams have found some exciting pass rushers up front during the last couple of seasons in Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young. However, that pass rush could force Hurts to scramble even more.
Look for Hurts to be ready to scramble at a moment's notice or at least sneak one in on another tush push at the goal line.
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