NFL Analysis

9/5/24

10 min read

4 Likely NFL Breakout candidates for 2024 Season

By James Foster

NFL Analyst
Nov 19, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Chicago Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (29) celebrates after a fumble recovery against the Detroit Lions in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

With the NFL season commencing tonight, it's time to dive into my 2024 breakout players.

Breakout NFL Players

New York Jets linebacker Jermaine Johnson (11) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at MetLife Stadium. Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports.

EDGE JERMAINE JOHNSON II, New York jets

After playing a rotational role as a rookie, Jermaine Johnson II emerged as a quality starter in his second year. He recorded 53 pressures and 7.5 sacks, showed flashes of dominance in the run game, and made plays when dropping into coverage. By diversifying his pass-rushing plan, Johnson II can go from above average to great.

He’s already one of the league’s best power rushers, ranking 10th among edge defenders with 14 bull rush pressures last year. He has the length and explosiveness to consistently establish first contact and the leg drive to uproot tackles and push the pocket.

His pad level, at almost 6-foot-5, is also impressive; taller edge rushers often struggle to play low enough to win leverage.

His Week 13 tape featured several dominant wins against Jake Matthews, like this rep where Johnson II and Quinnen Williams collapse the left side of the pocket, preventing Ridder from stepping into this throw:

To enter the upper echelon of pass rushers, Johnson II needs a more varied approach. In 2023, he was a battering ram that rarely diverged from the bull rush, but that strategy has limitations and can be neutralized by premiere tackles. Power rushes are slower to develop and usually result in fewer clean wins. Although sacks are statistically noisy, the eye test says that speed rushers have an easier path to finishing.

It’s also beneficial for pass rushers to have multiple methods of winning. This allows them to sequence moves strategically and adds uncertainty to the technical choices a blocker makes.

But I’m optimistic about a Johnson II breakout because I don’t have to use my imagination to see him expanding his move set. Johnson II flashed the hand usage and lateral quickness to be a more layered pass rusher, and he did it against elite competition.

He beat Laremy Tunsil and Terron Armstead with a cross-chop:

Johnson II is an explosive straight-line athlete, but his bend is closer to average. To account for this, he uses his initial steps to threaten the B-gap, force the tackle into a more shallow set, and shorten the corner.

He had multiple wins against guards with a two-handed swipe:

With a thinner interior defensive line compared to last season, expect the Jets to line Johnson II up over guards and centers in obvious pass situations.

He seems to be a one-dimensional pass rusher by choice; his bull rush was effective, so he stuck with it. A larger sample size of tape would make me more confident. However, if your cross-chop works against Tunsil, it should work against worse competition. If he expands his move set, Josh Hines-Allen is a suitable comparison.

Offensive lineman Anton Harrison stretches during the 2023 Jaguars Rookie Minicamp held at TIAA Bank Field.

rt ANTON HARRISON, Jacksonville Jaguars

Anton Harrison had a strong finish to his rookie season, and he should develop into a top-five right tackle by the time he’s up for an extension.

He fits the mold of tackles like Jawaan Taylor and Cam Robinson, who thrive in pass protection but struggle as run blockers. Among rookie offensive tackles with at least 200 pass-blocking snaps, Harrison allowed the lowest pressure rate at 3.31 percent.

He has a powerful anchor, rarely allowing displacement into the pocket. Most rookie tackles get tested frequently with power, but bull-rushing Harrison was futile.

In these reps, he displays the lower-body flexibility to absorb the stab, fit his hands, and redirect force into the ground:

He meets power-with-power with well-timed strikes to neutralize the initial surge:

In this play, he deconstructs T.J. Watt’s long-arm, using the snatch-trap technique to punish him for over-extending:

Harrison has a rare level of technical refinement for a rookie, and his skilled hand usage allows him to counter speed rushes masterfully. Most high-side pass-rushing moves are predicated on defeating the blocker’s outside hand to clear a path around the corner. Harrison understands how to keep his frame clean, protect his outside hand, and use his technique to keep rushers off balance.

On these plays he anticipates speed moves, whether it’s a cross-chop or double-swipe, and retracts his hands as the rusher is gearing up. They fail to make contact, and on the downswing of their move, Harrison lands a two-hand punch on their exposed frame:

Contrast this with Broderick Jones, who struggled with reckless and over-aggressive hand usage as a rookie. Jones lunges into Dayo Odeyingbo’s cross-chop, failing to protect his outside hand and surrendering the edge:

Harrison also had a lot of success using a flash-bait technique to disrupt the rusher’s tempo and force them to declare their move early.

Harrison baits the defender into a swipe or chop by leading off with an aggressive outside-hand punch. He would likely get beat around the corner if he left his hand exposed. But he withdraws his hand, causes the rusher to miss, and then lands his punch:

Inconsistent footwork and set depth resulted in the occasional soft edge, but he has plenty of pocket range, and those issues are easily fixable. With 34.75-inch arms, light feet, and superior hand usage to many veterans, Harrison projects as a top-tier pass protector.

Aside from a few successful pulls and second-level climbs, Harrison struggled as a run blocker. Improving his ability to win leverage, and sustain blocks should be his top priority in Year 2.

Chicago Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (29) breaks up a potential touchdown reception against Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs (87) Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports.

cb TYRIQUE STEVENSON, Chicago bears

Tyrique Stevenson was thrown into the fire as a rookie. With quarterbacks avoiding Jaylon Johnson, Stevenson was put in the crosshairs of opposing offenses and was one of the NFL's most targeted cornerbacks. He took his losses early in the year but showed the instincts and ball skills to produce in a zone-heavy scheme.

According to TruMedia, Chicago ran Cover 2 or Cover 3 on almost 60 percent of its snaps. The Bears were top five in league-wide usage rate for both coverages.

Stevenson took advantage of his opportunities to have eyes on the quarterback and led the NFL with 14 pass breakups and interceptions in zone coverage.

On this play, Chicago is in Cover 2, and the Falcons run a high-low concept to Stevenson’s side. He stays home in the flat, doesn’t overreact to the swing route, and reads Taylor Heinicke. When Heinicke begins his wind-up, Stevenson sinks and intercepts the deep corner.

His most impressive interception came in Week 15. The Bears run a 3-deep 5-man pressure, with Jaquan Brisker blitzing off the right tackle and Jack Sanborn dropping into the hook zone. S

ingle-high zone coverage (Cover 3) is already vulnerable in the seams, but with five rushers, Chicago has three underneath defenders instead of the usual four. With fewer intermediate coverage defenders and Stevenson playing the deep third, David Njoku should have an easy touchdown.

Flacco angles this pass to Njoku’s outside shoulder to avoid the free safety and attack the open space. But Stevenson undercuts the throw, preventing a touchdown and creating a turnover.

He had a competitive matchup with Davante Adams, breaking up a quick slant on third and short:

And forcing an incompletion on a dig route from trail technique:

His efficient pedal and rapid transitions allow him to preserve his breathing room but close that space quickly when Adams breaks.

On this third down pass breakup from Week 6, he does an excellent job sinking his hips to mirror Jordan Addison’s comeback. He stays connected to the route through his transition with a low hand to avoid a penalty and attacks the ball with impeccable timing:

Stevenson needs to improve his press coverage footwork and limit penalties, but he’s trending in the right direction and is a perfect scheme fit for Chicago’s defense.

The zone coverage play recognition he showed as a rookie is especially encouraging, as he struggled to diagnose route concepts and play his assignments consistently at Miami:

Washington Commanders offensive tackle Sam Cosmi (76) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports.

g SAM COSMI, Washington commanders

Sam Cosmi played right tackle in his first two seasons with the Commanders but had a career year in 2023 after moving to guard. His movement skills, drive power, and play demeanor make him a force as a run blocker, and he finally hit his stride in pass protection. He only allowed one sack, and his level of play skyrocketed during the second half of the season.

He has the hip fluidity to secure difficult reach blocks in outside zone concepts. This backside cutoff from Week 10 is a challenging assignment. Mario Edwards Jr. is leveraged nearly a full gap to the playside pre-snap, but Cosmi eliminates most of that advantage with explosive lateral steps out of his stance.

He pins his helmet on Edwards Jr's playside shoulder and rotates his hips to seal him off:

Outside zone is often considered a "finesse" rushing scheme, but Cosmi unleashes power and physicality regardless of the play. In this play, he generates torque with his upper body to uproot the 2i and carve out space through the frontside A-gap:

His ability to impose his will and clear rush lanes on duo makes me question Washington’s reluctance to run the ball. Cosmi's tape is littered with ferocious down blocks that displace 3-techniques 10+ yards off the line:

He’s also dominant at the second level, where he weaponizes his blend of explosiveness and raw power. Here he climbs from a combo block to LB Quincy Williams, and plants him on his back:

As a pass blocker, he has a strong anchor, active hands, and a violent play style. He has a healthy balance of patience and aggression, delivering forceful strikes without lunging or over-extending.

On this play, he catches Michael Clemmons' cross-chop with a precise two-hand punch and mirrors him upfield as he attacks the B-gap. He then caps off the rep with an assertive finish.

Take note of his hand positioning as he gets into his set; his hands are tightly clinched, level with his jersey number. This protects his frame from a long-arm or bull rush and decreases the time required to land his punch:

Cosmi has All-Pro potential if he can build on his performance from last season. Considering his upward trajectory and limited experience at tackle, there's reason to believe his best football is ahead of him.

Tags: Anton Harrison, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars See More

James Foster

NFL Analyst

James Foster is an NFL writer who creates film-based analysis of NFL players and teams. He previously worked for A to Z Sports.

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