NFL Analysis
1/8/25
12 min read
2025 NFL Wild Card Week Quarterback Power Rankings
Welcome to the first playoff edition of the quarterback rankings.
These are not your typical quarterback rankings, which is why you might see some differences from what you’d expect to see in a ranking system that was built off a box score or reputation.
For the rankings, we’re sticking with our popular regular season grading system. As a reminder, our grading system combines the skill set rankings (how good a quarterback is in a vacuum) and production (based on a composite of EPA per play and success rate from TruMedia) for the 2024 season.
The skill set rankings are from me, watching and grading each quarterback in the individual categories. If you feel like I hate your favorite quarterback, those are the rankings you should be looking at and yelling at me for.
The skill score is then combined with the production score to get the full rankings.
The full rankings, including each individual skill set, will be at the bottom of this article. If you liked the old rankings, you can filter by Skill Score. If you're more interested in production, you can filter by that, too.
For the playoffs, we’re ranking all remaining starters. For the Wild Card round, we’ll take a look at how the regular season went for these passers and look ahead to what we could see from them in the playoffs.
All stats provided by TruMedia.
Wild Card Weekend Quarterback Rankings
1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens 
Skill Score: 9.70 | Production Score: 7.83 | Ranking Score: 8.77
How the regular season went: Lamar Jackson is either going to win his third MVP and second in two seasons or come incredibly close. Whether he wins or not, he improved as a player during his 2023 season. He was better in the pocket and eliminated nearly every weakness. One of those was his play against the blitz. During the regular season, he finished first in EPA per play and success rate when blitzed.
Playoff outlook: There will be some dumb and unwarranted narratives around “Can he do it in the playoffs,” but he’s improved so much that there is no one way to try to defend him. Even potentially without Zay Flowers, the Baltimore offensive structure is so much better that Jackson won’t single-handedly have to carry the offense — but he’s now more well-equipped than ever to do so.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Skill Score: 9.70 | Production Score: 7.54 | Ranking Score: 8.62
How the regular season went: Josh Allen would also be a deserving MVP winner since this season was his best. His biggest development was combining the Josh Allen throws with more down-to-down success and consistency. We saw that start during the back half of last season, but it continued to improve across 2024. Allen had the highest explosive pass rate of his career while having the highest rate of yards after the catch.
Playoff outlook: The balanced approach gives the Bills a number of avenues to winning. That’s different than previous seasons when there wasn’t a consistent run game, and the passing structure asked a lot of Allen. Now, he has the luxury of some help in the scheme while he’s still more than capable of doing things no other quarterback in the playoffs can pull off.
3. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 8.07 | Ranking Score: 8.59
How the regular season went: Jared Goff finished the season with the highest success rate and highest production score for these rankings. He managed the game well in the least derogatory way that phrase can be used. The offense clearly played to his strengths — no team used the middle of the field better — but the degree of difficulty was much lower than just about every other quarterback on this list. Goff plays a part in that, and his decision-making has helped make things easier.
Playoff outlook: The situation won't change much, and with the Lions getting the top seed in the NFC, he’ll get to play indoors for as long as Detroit stays in the playoffs—though his EPA per play is nearly identical outdoors (0.26) as it was indoors (0.27). With the potential for some good defensive efforts after what we saw in the season finale, the Lions might not have to replicate the 2018 Rams-Chiefs game every week.
4. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Skill Score: 9.78 | Production Score: 6.15 | Ranking Score: 7.97
How the regular season went: It was a strange one. These weren’t the Chiefs we’re used to seeing, but this was a significantly better offense than it was for most of the 2023 regular season, and Patrick Mahomes still finished 10th in EPA per play and ninth in success rate. He was often asked to turn it on in high-leverage situations. He was fourth in EPA per play and first in success rate on third downs.
Playoff outlook: Near the end of the regular season, the Chiefs started to get hot. Mahomes got the ball out quicker to protect the offensive line and threw in a few deep shots into the mix. There’s been smarter use and more chemistry with Xavier Worthy. With the bye, Marquise Brown also gets more time to get healthier and have a bigger role in the offense. It’s also playoff time, so we’re also likely to get more Travis Kelce.
5. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 6.75 | Ranking Score: 7.93
How the regular season went: Baker Mayfield was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, ranking sixth in EPA per play for the full season. Tampa Bay's offense allowed him to play with confidence, leading to quick decision-making and good timing. He also had a league-best screen game to work with. When Tampa Bay's offense was clicking, it was one of the best in the league, partly due to Mayfield.
Playoff outlook: Mayfield’s playoff performance might come down to pressure and how he handles it. When he can stand strong in the pocket, he’s been great. However, there were still times during the regular season when he started to bail early, and that’s when he got himself into trouble. He had the seventh-highest sack rate when outside of the pocket under pressure.
6. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Skill Score: 9.26 | Production Score: 6.38 | Ranking Score: 7.82
How the regular season went: Just about every week, something new was added to Jayden Daniels’ game and the Washington offense. He started out running often and having a screen-heavy offense. By the end of the season, he had the full field at his disposal with his arm and could take over a game with his legs.
Playoff outlook: Daniels has that trump card with his legs after scrambling on 12.5 percent of his dropbacks during the regular season and having a 70.7 percent success rate on those runs. With the changes in Washington’s offense and more fluidity in the alignments, there’s more diversity for Daniels to use in the postseason.
7. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 6.30 | Ranking Score: 7.70
How the regular season went: Philadelphia’s passing offense was hit-or-miss throughout the year, but it was mostly productive. Jalen Hurts would turn down some throws and miss on others, but the talent of that offense was too good not to put up points, which it did consistently. Hurts was still a cheat code in short-yardage situations, and the Eagles could play knowing they needed only eight or nine yards on first and second down.
Playoff outlook: It depends on how healthy Hurts will be. He left the Week 16 game with a concussion and, as of Wednesday morning, still remains in concussion protocol. If any lingering effects limit Hurts’s rushing ability, especially in those sneak situations, it could completely change the dynamic of the offense.
8. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Skill Score: 9.42 | Production Score: 5.76 | Ranking Score: 7.59
How the regular season went: Jordan Love’s regular season performance felt more polarizing than it should have. He had some interception issues early in the season, but that was because he was trying things down the field. Love still created explosive plays at a high enough rate to counter any negatives from the turnovers. He finished tied for 11th in EPAA per play.
Playoff outlook: Without Christian Watson, who tore his ACL in the regular season finale, the Packers have huge man coverage splits. Love averaged 0.08 EPA per play against man with Watson on the field and -0.32 EPA per play against man without him. In Week 16, the Vikings leaned into more man coverage for that reason, and the Packers could see playoff opponents choose to do the same.
9. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Skill Score: 9.62 | Production Score: 5.51 | Ranking Score: 7.57
How the regular season went: After being let down by scheme and receivers for much of the early part of the season, the Chargers started to click on offense. There were games in the middle of the season when Justin Herbert completely took over by scrambling at a high volume, a new element to his game. He was also still able to put the ball in places few other quarterbacks could.
Playoff outlook: No quarterback finished the season hotter than Herbert, who had at least 0.40 EPA per play in each of his final three games. His 0.46 EPA per play and 60.3 percent success rate were easily the highest in the league during that stretch. With a growing connection with Ladd McConkey and the aggressiveness to not overly rely on the check-down, Herbert can lead the type of passing offense that can win any game.
10. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Skill Score: 9.58 | Production Score: 5.52 | Ranking Score: 7.55
How the regular season went: Matthew Stafford and the Rams battled through some losses and injuries to get into the playoffs. Once again, the Rams shifted some of their offensive philosophy, moving on from the pistol offense that propelled them last season and allowing Stafford to sit back in empty, which is how the offense looked in the 2021 season.
Playoff outlook: Let’s see what this offense really looks like. After going off against the Bills, Stafford followed it up with three below-average games before resting in Week 18. But with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field, Stafford’s EPA per play would have been the equivalent of the 10th-best for a quarterback for a full season.
11. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 5.27 | Ranking Score: 7.19
How the regular season went: Sam Darnold exceeded all expectations in leading an offense that nearly got the Vikings to the top seed in the AFC. The Vikings’ offense played perfectly into Darnold’s willingness to just let it rip. He often found open receivers, but some interception and sack issues still held the offense back at times. For as good as things were at their peak, Darnold only finished 16th among quarterbacks in EPA per play.
Playoff outlook: Darnold's outlook would have been much rosier before last week’s game against the Lions. Some issues still linger for Darnold, as Detroit’s blitzes and the threat of the blitz threw him off his rhythm, forcing him to hold onto the ball and miss reads and throws. Yet, the highs of this offense remain good enough to hang with anyone in the league.
12. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Skill Score: 9.08 | Production Score: 4.86 | Ranking Score: 6.97
How the regular season went: After a shaky start, the Broncos figured out the best uses for Bo Nix and the supporting cast on offense. Through Week 9, Nix ranked 28th among quarterbacks in EPA per play. He’s fourth since Week 10 — though it’s 11th through Week 17 if we don’t include torching Kansas City backups without much of a defensive game plan. During the second half of the season, Nix lowered his aDOT (8.1 to 6.4) and got the ball out quicker, which allowed him to play more controlled from the pocket and limit the times he tried to do too much, like bailing from a clean pocket — a tendency he had early in the year.
Playoff outlook: While bumping up the rate of play-action and screens, Nix has easier answers in the offense, which gives more down-to-down consistency and opens up smarter opportunities for Nix to try some bigger throws. It’s not a dissimilar situation to Mayfield’s outlook in Tampa Bay.
13. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Skill Score: 9.56 | Production Score: 3.64 | Ranking Score: 6.59
How the regular season went: It sucked — definitely from a spectator’s standpoint, and I have to imagine also playing in Houston’s offense. All the glimmers of hope that came through in C.J. Stroud’s game were often derailed by poor pass blocking and an inefficient run game that put the offense in third-and-long situations. That clearly wore on Stroud throughout the season.
Playoff outlook: Since Week 10, Stroud ranks 30th in EPA per play. It’s difficult to imagine the Texans changing anything for the playoffs since there have been no changes in scheme or philosophy to this point.
14. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Skill Score: 9.04 | Production Score: 4.11 | Ranking Score: 6.58
How the regular season went: When Russell Wilson first came in as Pittsburgh’s starter, he rode some explosive downfield throws to victory. But in recent games without George Pickens on the field, those disappeared. Then, when Pickens returned against the Ravens in Week 18, they did not reappear.
Playoff outlook: Which version of the Steelers offense shows up? If Wilson’s moonballs don’t hit at a high rate — or even his willingness to throw them, which has gone from 15 percent from Weeks 7-13 to 11.4 percent since Week 14 — then Wilson doesn’t have much else to rely on. Since Week 14, he’s averaged -0.15 EPA per play, mostly due to the lack of deep ball impact.
Full Wild Card Quarterback Rankings
