NFL Draft
1/1/25
6 min read
2025 NFL Draft: Should NFL Teams Be Concerned About Ashton Jeanty's CFP Performance?
It wasn't Ashton Jeanty's best performance in the College Football Playoff against Penn State, but that shouldn't scare off NFL scouts when it comes to the Boise State superstar running back.
The Nittany Lions held Jeanty in check for the entirety of the Fiesta Bowl, taking control and pulling off a 31-14 win to advance to the CFP semifinals. The Broncos running back finished 104 rushing yards, but that came on 30 carries, averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt. He also fumbled twice in key moments, with one of them being recovered by Penn State for a back-breaking turnover in the first half.
Some critics will say that Jeanty couldn't handle the increased level of competition and call his skill set into question at the NFL level. However, even based on what the scouts saw from Tuesday night's game, it should be clear that Jeanty is a talented running back prospect who is ready to draw first-round consideration.
Jeanty's Iconic Season
After signs that Jeanty could be one of the best running backs in the country in 2023, he took an even bigger step forward in 2024, putting up a season for the ages.
Jeanty finished the season rushing for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns while averaging an absurd 7.0 yards per carry. His season was so impressive that he finished just 27 yards short of Barry Sanders' all-time college rushing record of 2,628 yards.
It's not just that Jeanty came close to that record, however. It's the advanced stats that blew everyone away this year, particularly when it came to breaking tackles. Not only did Jeanty lead college football in rushing yards, but his 1,964 yards after contact were still 304 yards more than any other running back had in overall rushing yardage, according to Pro Football Focus.
Ashton Jeanty made Washington State's defense look like a JV squad. I've never seen more forced missed tackles on a RB tape.
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) September 29, 2024
Just watch these 5 clips. #RB1 pic.twitter.com/kVZGdYLBeR
On top of the yards after contact, Jeanty led college football with 5.24 YAC per carry, 151 missed tackles forced, 63 runs of 10-plus yards, 1,366 breakaway yards, and 120 first downs generated on the ground.
There have been some incredible running backs in college football during the last decade, including Bijan Robinson and Saquon Barkley. However, no one has come close to having the kind of season that Jeanty had, even if he only put up modest numbers in the Fiesta Bowl.
What Went Wrong Against Penn State?
Penn State had a plan to handle Jeanty in the CFP, and that plan was executed effectively.
Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Tom Allen decided to let QB Maddux Madsen try to win the game through the air by consistently stacking the box.
According to TruMedia, Jeanty faced a stacked box with seven or more defenders on 20 of his 30 carries. In those situations, he was only able to muster 40 rushing yards or 2.0 yards per carry. The numbers weren't any better against an 8-plus man box for Jeanty, carrying the ball five times for 15 yards with his longest run being just seven yards.
Even the best running backs in the country will struggle against a stacked box, especially when their offensive line simply doesn't have as much talent as the opposing defense.
Penn State's defense features extremely talented players, even without an injured Abdul Carter, including the likes of Dani Dennis-Sutton, Kobe King, and Dominic DeLuca.
Fumbles were the bigger concern, at least from an NFL Draft perspective. Jeanty had two fumbles, with one recovered. While the one that resulted in a turnover was an incredible play by the defender near the sideline, the ball security issues aren't totally unheard of from Jeanty.
ashton jeanty fumble pic.twitter.com/5NHLUcCOex
— ◇ (@H00DH3R0) January 1, 2025
Ball security was a real issue for Jeanty in 2023, as he coughed up the ball five times last season. It looked like he had fixed some of those issues with just two fumbles in 2024 before the Fiesta Bowl, but he doubled that total after the Penn State game.
Jeanty is still a first-round prospect
Even if it might have been Jeanty's worst game of the season, there was still enough film from that game to suggest that he's worthy of being a first-round pick.
The evaluation for Jeanty is pretty simple for scouts. He's a compact runner with some of the best contact balance seen in years, capable of breaking tackles and staying upright through all kinds of tackle attempts. Tuesday night was another example of that, with PFF crediting him with an absurd 16 missed tackles forced, his third most in a game this season.
😳😳😳 pic.twitter.com/jmvImtc9l4
— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) January 1, 2025
It's not like Jeanty is just a bowling ball like other contact balance-focused running backs, either. He possesses legitimate breakaway speed, which is a reason he led college football in yards generated from runs of 15-plus yards or more this season.
Along with good vision and good explosiveness, Jeanty has that second gear to reach impressive top speeds, reaching over 22 miles per hour on a run this season. For reference, only KaVontae Turpin, Brian Thomas Jr., and Jahmyr Gibbs have exceeded 22 miles per hour with the ball this season, according to Next Gen Stats.
On top of his natural ability as a runner, both breaking tackles and hitting home runs, Jeanty is more than comfortable catching passes out of the backfield. He averaged an absurd 3.19 yards per route run out of the backfield in 2023, hauling in 44 passes for 578 yards and five touchdowns. While he wasn't used as much as a receiver this season, he still caught 23 passes.
What's scarier is that Jeanty is still developing into a more well-rounded running back. His pass protection could use some work, and his ball security can still be improved, especially if an NFL team plans to make him a workhorse back.
Despite those deficiencies, Jeanty is one of the best running back prospects of the last decade and deserves to be considered a top-10 selection now that the NFL is starting to value running backs again.
