NFL Analysis
10/16/24
8 min read
2025 NFL Draft: Jalen Milroe Is This Year's Biggest Boom, Bust QB Prospect
There isn't another quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft class, at least from an on-field perspective, that is as divisive right now as Jalen Milroe.
The Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback has taken strides in multiple aspects of his game, but the last few games have generated a debate on what the junior quarterback's upside truly is. Along with nearly giving away a 28-point lead to Georgia, the Crimson Tide were downed by Vanderbilt and took South Carolina to the wire this past week.
Milroe has thrown an interception in each of the last three games, and his elite level of play from earlier this season seems to have fallen off. Still, given the strides he's made in 2024, Milroe could become a franchise quarterback in the NFL.
>> READ MORE: See Where Milroe Landed in Our Latest Mock
Jalen Milroe's 2024 Development
It's not like Milroe was some awful quarterback in 2023, but the leaps and strides in his game should have NFL scouts excited about his potential at the next level.
Milroe earned second-team All-SEC honors last year, throwing for more than 2,800 yards with 23 touchdowns, six interceptions, and another 12 touchdowns on the ground. However, there were some real issues with Milroe's game that were concerning to scouts that he's improved on in 2024.
One of the biggest flaws in Milroe's game last season was his intermediate accuracy, throwing the ball between 10 and 19 yards downfield. According to PFF, he completed 52.3 percent of his intermediate throws with four touchdowns, four interceptions, and seven turnover-worthy plays. In fact, seven of his eight turnover-worthy plays came on intermediate throws.
That isn't remotely the case in 2024. Through six games, Milroe has just one turnover-worthy play on intermediate throws, completing 67.7 percent of his passes for 12.1 yards per attempt with one touchdown and one interception.
One of the routes that has helped Milroe boost those intermediate numbers is the seam route. Watch how Milroe consistently hits the seam against Vanderbilt with good anticipation and placement into tighter windows.
#Alabama QB Jalen Milroe vs. Vanderbilt
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) October 9, 2024
The positive development as a passer continued. Correct ball placement on various types of seam throws. pic.twitter.com/50kma7x1zr
Even if the eye test doesn't always back it up, Milroe continues to be an extremely effective deep-ball passer as well. In the last two seasons, he's completed more than 50 percent of his passes 20-plus yards downfield for 1,871 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just two interceptions.
Milroe's excellent arm strength played a part in that success, but having elite weapons like Isaiah Bond and Ryan Williams also helped when he could just throw it deep and let his explosive receivers get under the football.
However, Milroe's biggest improvement as a deep-ball passer has been his anticipation on shot plays. This throw against Wisconsin is a great example of getting the ball out quickly to maximize separation on a deep shot rather than relying on his receiver to make a tough play on the ball.
For those wondering what Jalen Milroe would look like in Kalen DeBoer's offense, we're starting to see similar results as @seniorbowl alum and last year's No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix.
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) September 19, 2024
Checkout the 𝙖𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙥𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 on this👇throw last week...WR is four yards from his… https://t.co/RM0GQ56uze pic.twitter.com/tIyTmiA8sG
It's also worth noting how much Milroe has improved as a runner. Rather than relying on scrambling, Milroe has been allowed to be more aggressive as a designed runner thanks to head coach Kalen DeBoer and Alabama's new coaching staff.
According to PFF, 64.6 percent of Milroe's rushing yards in 2023 came off of scrambles instead of designed runs. Through six games in 2024, only 28 percent of his rushing yards have come from scrambles. He's pacing to shatter his rushing production from last year, already rushing for 319 yards and 11 touchdowns with 4.1 yards per attempt.
At 225 pounds, Milroe has a good build for a dual-threat quarterback, and he has the play strength and contact balance to be a legitimate runner in space who isn't afraid of contact.
#Alabama QB Jalen Milroe has tools to continue to grow as a passer, but his running explosiveness/physicality can make him a top QB runner right away.
— Eric Galko (@EricGalko) September 19, 2024
Great blocking + his finishing ability as a runner is rare.
He’ll be near the Jalen Hurts/Josh Allen tier of power running QBs… pic.twitter.com/Gov14kTHqK
The lack of scramble yards hasn't had an impact on Milroe's athletic ability in the pocket, either. In fact, he's been much more comfortable handling pressure when inside the pocket. His pressure-to-sack ratio has dropped a full 10.6 percent in 2024, getting sacked on 21.3 percent of his pressures this season.
Not only is Milroe developing this season, but he's also improving on things that were already considered strengths with his physical tools. All of these strides have solidified his potential as a first-round prospect and potentially the first quarterback taken in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Room For Improvement
Even with Milroe's development this year, there are still parts of his game where he can become an even more reliable NFL-caliber quarterback.
Handling the blitz is something that Milroe needs to continue to get acclimated with. While he has the ability to scramble his way out of problems, there's still a drop-off in his efficiency when defenses bring extra rushers.
Opponents blitz Milroe on 42.6 percent of his dropbacks. On those blitzes, his completion percentage drops a full 10 percent compared to when he isn't blitzed, while his yards per attempt drops 3.7 yards.
Pocket presence remains a big area of improvement for Milroe. Even with the improved pressure-to-sack numbers, there are times when Milroe gets happy feet and wants to bail from a clean pocket. He also struggles with his offensive line's slide protection calls, not recognizing free rushers coming from his blind size.
These issues are correctable, and we've seen that Milroe is more than capable of fixing flaws in his game.
Range of Outcomes
Upside: Dak Prescott (with more athletic upside)
This comp may not make sense when discussing the current version of Dak Prescott. However, early in his career, before his gruesome ankle injury, Prescott was sneakily one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL.
A fourth-round pick in 2016, Prescott burst onto the scene to become the Offensive Rookie of the Year and an eventual three-time Pro Bowler. He set the rookie record with a 104.9 passer rating and has multiple seasons with more than 4,000 passing yards or 30-plus passing touchdowns.
However, Prescott's early-career rushing ability makes this comparison interesting. In his first three NFL seasons, Prescott rushed for more than 900 yards and 18 touchdowns.
With the right offense around him, Milroe could have a similar career trajectory, especially if he continues to improve as a traditional pocket passer.
Mid-Range: Anthony Richardson
This isn't a comparison about what Anthony Richardson could be, but rather about what he has been as an NFL quarterback so far.
Physically, the two aren't that similar. Richardson is a tank of a quarterback at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds. However, they have similar play styles, with the ability to tuck and run and the arm talent to consistently push the ball vertically.
However, the same problems that Richardson is currently dealing with could also be major issues for Milroe at the NFL level. With the throwing windows tightening up and the talent difference no longer a huge advantage between his receivers and opposing defenses, Milroe's erratic ball placement could get him into real trouble.
Indianapolis Colts fans have had to live with the frustrating misses on short throws to watch Richardson make incredible explosive plays deep downfield. That seems almost too fitting for a path for Milroe as a pro given what we've seen from him on tape.
Low-End: Trey Lance
Trey Lance will go down as one of the biggest "what ifs" in NFL history. Scouts became enamored with the 6-foot-4, 224-pound quarterback out of North Dakota State due to his pristine record for the Bison, his football IQ, and his dual-threat ability.
Although Lance didn't have the arm talent coming out that Milroe has, scouts were fascinated by his physical tools and football intelligence. However, like Milroe, the tape showed a player who didn't always trust his pocket and could get too antsy when he felt pressure to try and escape to make an off-script play.
Once in the NFL, injuries derailed Lance's career. Although he got healthy, his inexperience as a true pocket passer hurt him in Kyle Shanahan's offensive scheme. He was eventually traded to the Cowboys, where he has not attempted a pass in the last two seasons.
Despite the talent, Brock Purdy's emergence shuttered Lance's chances of being a starter again in San Francisco, and now he's waiting for another chance to prove himself.
That can be the life of an NFL quarterback on a short leash, and Milroe would be far from the first or last quarterback to experience something similar if his pro career got off to a slow start.
