NFL Analysis
9/18/24
21 min read
2024 NFL Week 3 QB Power Rankings: Kyler Murray, Geno Smith Continue Climbing
With two weeks of information, we’re still not working with a large sample size, but we’re getting the indications of what these quarterbacks and offenses could be for the 2024 season. Week 2 is still a feeling-out process, so none of these quarterbacks are in their final form.
We should note these rankings are not strictly based on two weeks of performance. While a quarterback may have had a great start to the season, that doesn’t automatically make him the league’s best starter. We also use some stats here, but this is not a ranking of quarterbacks based on EPA, QBR, or any other single stat.
These rankings are based on a mixture of film, advanced stats, and cap hits. For the way we’re ranking quarterbacks this year, we will try to ask how much a quarterback plays into his team’s ability to win games — how much easier does the quarterback make things for his offense?
Does the quarterback create the structure for the offense? Does he make the coach's job harder by having to scheme around him? Is he just a product of what surrounds him? These are the types of questions we’re trying to answer, and they will determine the order of this list.
Each week, we’ll be ranking the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks. That means if a quarterback switch is made, it will be reflected in the rankings. For that reason, Andy Dalton and Skylar Thompson will be ranked this week.
Here are the rankings heading into Week 3.
NFL Week 3 QB Rankings
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs 
Last Week: 1 
Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo plays Patrick Mahomes better than any other coach in the league. Mahomes threw one of the worst interceptions he’s ever thrown when Akeem Davis-Gaither jumped in front of a pass in the middle of the field. Those aren’t the types of throws or decisions Mahomes makes. Still, there was the deep throw to Rashee Rice, and Mahomes patiently picked Cincinnati apart on the final drive.
Mahomes has the league's lowest average depth of target through two weeks (5.1), but no quarterback is better suited to make that an efficient way to sustain the offense.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills 
Last Week 2
Josh Allen continues his post-Tyreek Hill Mahomes transformation. The Bills focus on getting the ball out quickly while balancing that with Allen going out and making plays happen out of structure.
There was no better example than the throw down the sideline to Ty Johnson when he could have thrown a safer pass to just get the first down. Having that throw in his bag — and the willingness to make it — combined with the more controlled down-to-down consistency is what makes him a top-tier quarterback.
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens 
Last Week: 3
Baltimore’s offensive line might be a bigger issue than expected throughout the season. That will put more on Lamar Jackson’s shoulders and raise the degree of difficulty. Against the Raiders, the Ravens struggled to create big plays, even when Jackson found openings in the passing game.
He’s still one of the better intermediate passers, and if the line can hold up enough to let those routes develop, the passing offense should click more than it has during the first two weeks.
4. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams 
Last Week: 4
If you’re reading this, you might be starting on the offensive line or at receiver for the Rams this week.
Against the Cardinals, Matthew Stafford took five sacks and did not throw a touchdown, but other than that, his peripheral stats were mostly similar from Week 1. He actually had a higher success rate and higher explosive pass rate in Week 2.
Stafford still has those parts of his game where he can get the best out of a limited supporting cast, but the Rams might be pushing the limit with the players currently available.
5. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys 
Last Week: 5
It was a rough week for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. The Saints' big lead allowed the defense to play aggressively with a lot of press coverage, making it difficult to find open throws in the passing game. Early on, it looked like Prescott would keep the Cowboys close by playing in a shootout, and then things got out of control on the other side of the ball.
With the Saints able to play the pass, just 30 percent of Prescott’s dropbacks finished within 2.5 seconds, and that’s not his game.
The Cowboys have played in two weird game scripts, so we’ll have to see what this offense looks like in more normal game situations.
6. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans 
Last Week: 6
C.J. Stroud did not have his best game against the Bears — a tough defense with three good corners — but kept the Texans in the game with the plays he was able to make. He was moved off his spot often but made some throws on the run, such as an 18-yard pass to Nico Collins early in the second quarter and a 26-yard pass to Collings on a third-and-8 to start the fourth quarter.
We’ve seen more of these out-of-structure plays from Stroud, and those are the kinds of plays that can separate a quarterback when he might not be playing as well overall.
7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers 
Last Week: 8 
Justin Herbert is elevating the talent around him. The offensive line has been hit-or-miss through two weeks, but Herbert did a better job moving in the pocket, and he has the seventh-lowest pressure-to-sack rate in the first two weeks.
Playing the Panthers helps, but Herbert was in control of the passing game and took advantage of openings when they were there — including some big plays to Quinten Johnston. He played more under center and even had a read-option keeper in the red zone. This is another offense that should click more as the season progresses.
8. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals 
Last Week 7 
This was a much better performance than in Week 1, but it also highlighted the limits to Joe Burrow’s game when there is only one real receiving threat in the offense, and the defense can put significant resources into stopping him, especially on third downs when Burrow only averaged 3.9 yards per attempt.
Early-season rust isn’t new for the Bengals, and the Chiefs defense is a tough matchup for Week 2. Burrow does get knocked a bit for these first two weeks, but also gets the benefit of the doubt that things will improve.
9. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals 
Last Week: 10
When considering the level of volume and success, there was not a better game from a quarterback this week than Kyler Murray's against the Rams. From the opening drive, Murray was in complete control.
There were great passes in structure, and he created plenty on his own. His ridiculous scrambling touchdown pass is a play maybe a handful of quarterbacks could attempt, let alone complete.
We went a bit deeper into Murray’s game in 1st & 10 this week, but after two weeks, he’s playing a sustainable version of his best-case scenario as a passer, and there is still room to improve.
10. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks 
Last Week: 13
If you’re surprised by Geno Smith’s placement, you didn’t pay close enough attention to what he’s done to start the season. His game against the Patriots was a masterclass in pocket management and accuracy. The Seahawks have still struggled on the offensive line, which tanked any running game that could have been used as support.
Against a good pass rush, the Seahawks asked Smith to go into empty formations and make something happen. He was charted with zero inaccurate passes while he had an 8.2-yard aDOT.
Smith has become a problem minimizer, keeping the offense on track in bad situations. That’s the type of trait we’re looking for in this top 10.
11. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles 
Last Week: 10
There were pros and cons to Jalen Hurts’ game on Monday Night Football. His running looked much better than it did in the opening weekend when his scrambles and designed runs looked labored. Hurts did more scrambling than designed runs against the Falcons, but they worked.
The passing offense was more condensed without A.J. Brown. His only throw of more than 20 air yards was the final attempt that was intercepted by Jessie Bates.
Because Hurts doesn’t often throw naturally to the middle of the field, the Eagles had to rely on receiver screens, and there were not many yards after the catch opportunities elsewhere despite the short passing.
12. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars 
Last Week: 12
Trevor Lawrence is unbelievably talented, but that is continually hampered by the structure and design of the Jacksonville offense. The offensive line has struggled. It is 24th in pass block win rate, and the Jaguars have seen the seventh-fastest time to pressure.
Jacksonville had previously worked around that by going to quick game and letting Lawrence control everything at the line of scrimmage. Defenses started to sit on that in 2023 and have continued to do so in 2024.
When the Jaguars try to push things down the field, as they did against Cleveland, a defender often gets into the backfield. On plays that last at least three seconds, Lawrence is second in EPA per play, behind only Kyler Murray. He hasn’t gotten the chance to make those plays a bigger part of the offense, and the Jaguars cannot rely on the rushed passing plays anymore.
13. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers 
Last Week: 14
Brian Flores had his way with Brock Purdy in Week 2. The Vikings threw out a ton of mugged-up looks on defense and got pressure and rushed throws whether they blitzed or not.
This is one of the concerns about Purdy — his stand-alone dropback passing is not where it needs to be to lift an offense in obvious passing situations. Some people have pointed to Purdy’s league-high 17.6 percent completion percentage over expectation in Week 2, but watch some of those throws, and he’s getting rewarded for receivers making tough catches in contested situations.
Purdy leads the league in the rate of throws into tight windows, which is rare for a Shannahan offense. There are still plenty of open throws in this offense, but the pressure and changing defensive looks have made Purdy force some throws. With Deebo Samuel injured, the wide talent advantage San Francisco has is shrinking.
14. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets 
Last Week: 15
For most of the game against Tennessee, Aaron Rodgers looked like a limited, aging quarterback who couldn’t move well. He has the league's quickest time to throw, which has resulted in short, ineffective passes.
But when he needs to, Rodgers shows he can still rip a perfect fade down the sideline, as he did a few times late against the Titans. That shows in his splits on early downs and third down. He’s averaged -0.21 EPA per play with a 4.7-yard aDOT on early downs and 0.33 EPA per play with an 11.2-yard aDOT on third downs.
The question for Rodgers will be whether those throws can become a bigger part of the offense or if they’re just break glass in case of emergency.
15. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions 
Last Week: 16
Tampa Bay flooded the middle of the field and took away the strength of the Detroit passing game.
Jared Goff only averaged 4.09 yards after the catch per completion, while 45.3 percent of his yards came after the catch following a Week 1 game, in which he averaged 8.22 yards after the catch per reception, and 68.2 percent of his passing yards came after the catch.
When living in the short middle of the field, Goff needs those yards after the catch to create explosive plays. Tampa Bay didn’t allow those to develop.
As has been the case in his career, Goff can also be thrown off by pressure, which is what happened on his second interception.
16. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Last Week: 18
Baker Mayfield continued to be good when he could throw the ball. The problem was the Detroit defensive line had no trouble getting to the backfield, as Mayfield was sacked five times. That probably won’t happen again, so we’re still focusing on what Mayfield has done in the passing game.
Even when there was pressure, Mayfield kept his cool and navigated the pocket well. If we keep seeing that, there is enough trust in the receivers that Mayfield is willing to let the ball fly. That’s the best version of this quarterback, and his confidence feels more real and consistent by the week.
17. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints 
Last Week: 19
There’s no questioning how well Derek Carr has played through two weeks. He’s confident, comfortable, and aggressive. After Carr’s history of being a passive and safe quarterback, he’s let it rip. This is the version of Carr many people have wanted to see.
That’s great when the game script has worked out the way it has for New Orleans. For Carr to really jump up these rankings to match his efficiency (leading the league by a wide margin in EPA per play), we’ll have to see if this continues when pressure is more common and the Saints are forced into obvious passing situations to see if this really is a new quarterback.
18. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts 
Last Week: 17
Anthony Richardson’s Week 1 performance was fine, despite completing less than half of his passes, because the big plays were available and made. The Week 2 performance showcased the floor of the passing game when the big plays don’t hit and Richardson is put into a high-volume passing situation.
A lot of the good things we like about Richardson were still there — despite pressure, he was not sacked often and when he runs, he’s looking to throw — but there was an uneven plan around Richardson and too many misses showed up.
19. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings 
Last Week: 21
Sam Darnold is going to try some throws. Sometimes it’s going to be trust Justin Jefferson to split safeties on a 97-yard touchdown pass or throwing to Jalen Nailor in a tight window up the seam on a third-and-8 late in the game with a lead. Other times, it will result in being baited into an interception by a player like Fred Warner.
So far, we’ve seen the positives outweigh the negatives. That was always the hope in this Kevin O’Connell offense. Darnold hasn’t changed much as a passer these last two weeks, but his situation has significantly improved, and the right decision is much easier to make within this offense.
20. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons 
Last Week: 20
Kirk Cousins — or at least offensive coordinator Zac Robinson — saw the tweets. After a siloed offense by throwing from shotgun and running from pistol, Cousins came out and immediately ran under center play-action on the first drive of the game. It didn’t look great, but it was there.
For most of the game, Cousins still looked labored and couldn’t fully drive the ball. As the game wore on, he became more comfortable standing and waiting in the pocket, and his comfort really showed in the two-minute drill.
We’ll keep an eye on how his physical ability develops because even on the good plays, it looked like an obstacle that needed to be overcome.
>> READ MORE: How Kirk Found The Recipe for Success
21. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots 
Last Week: 22
Jacoby Brissett is doing what he’s supposed to do in this role. He’s taken seven hits in each of the two games, and he’s kept passes out of harm’s way while taking advantage of space on short passes. It’s been enough for a win against Cincinnati and an overtime game against Seattle.
The details of the offense could use some work — there were barely any throws to wide receivers in Week 2 — but it’s been passable veteran play, which is all the Patriots have asked for.
22. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears 
Last Week: 23
We’ve gotten the worst tendencies of Caleb Williams so far. The process looked better in Week 2, but Williams was still impacted by pressure and had no easy answers in the passing game, which put him into creation mode. It’s a tough task to go against DeMeco Ryans in just his second start, and an offensive line that ranks 30th in pass block win rate hasn’t made things easier.
Williams is still figuring out what he can and can’t get away with at the NFL level, and he’s found more of the latter through two weeks.
>> READ MORE: The Bears Are Failing Caleb
23. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders 
Last Week: 24
Washington’s offense is built around screens and scrambles right now. It’s been efficient. Through two weeks, Washington’s offense is third in EPA per drive. That’s come from moving the ball on scrambles and not turning the ball over.
When Jayden Daniels runs, he’s still looking to run. That’s something that went back to how he played in college. If this offense is going to open up and be more sustainable, Daniels has to be more willing to keep his eyes downfield and get more passes off on the move.
He’s executing what is asked of him well enough so far, but this has been a limited menu of what he’s been tasked with during the opening two games.
24. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers 
Last Week: 26
Justin Fields has only taken four sacks and has yet to turn the ball over. That’s a great development from the quarterback Fields was in Chicago. Keeping the negative plays away is likely to keep Mike Tomlin and the Steelers happy. It also has yet to create big plays on offense. Fields has a 6.4 percent explosive pass rate, which is the sixth-lowest in the league. That’s fine to pair with a defense that’s shut opposing offenses down so far.
He handled himself well against a Denver defense that blitzed almost 60 percent of the time.
If he can keep the negative plays to a minimum, he’ll get a longer leash as the Pittsburgh starter. If he can mix in some bigger plays, he’ll be onto something.
25. Daniel Jones, New York Giants 
Last Week: 30
Daniel Jones had an efficient day against Washington, but performances against the Commanders' defense overall might have to be graded on a curve from here on out. There was enough time in the pocket for Jones to throw at Malik Nabers for two-thirds of his attempts. If Jones and the Giants can get away with that, go for it.
But we also saw some of the weaknesses in his game. Jones was only 3-for-9 on passes over 10 yards past the line of scrimmage in Week 2 and missed wildly on some throws to Nabers that could have been even bigger plays.
26. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders 
Last Week: 27
Throw to Davante Adams and Brock Bowers. That’s Gardner Minshew’s job right now, and he doesn’t have to do much else. Bowers' early emergence is an excellent development for this offense, which gives Minshew an option over the middle and will force defenses to not put every resource into defending Adams.
Minshew has completed more than 75 percent of his passes in both games by killing the short area, which is what he’s done throughout his career. But that’s through the quick game, and he’s taken a ton of hits and sacks along the way. That is a thin line to walk.
27. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns 
Last Week: 31
Deshaun Watson played better in Week 2, but still not great. Anxiousness in the pocket continued and has not completely improved. Cleveland receivers did not help Watson out with the rate of drops in Week 2, but the offense still felt clunky regardless of the results.
He’s at his most comfortable in empty — part of why Ken Doresey was brought in, to add those elements to the offense — but it’s become a crutch that takes away from other parts of the offense and has yet to truly be effective.
Cleveland went empty on 44.9 percent of Watson’s dropbacks against Jacksonville but he still only put up a 38.9 percent success rate on those snaps.
28. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers 
Last Week: N/A
With the benching of Bryce Young, Andy Dalton takes over as Carolina’s starter. Dalton was slightly below average during his starting stint with the Saints in 2022 (-0.06 EPA per play) and then filled in fine for a start and some other sporadic snaps last season in Carolina.
Dalton turns 37 years old at the end of October, so he won't be anything revolutionary for the Panthers offense, but he can keep things on schedule and allow the team to evaluate what is and isn’t working outside of the quarterback.
29: Malik Willis, Green Bay Packers 
Last Week: 32
The Packers put Malik Willis in a great spot thanks to an early lead and a game plan focused on the run. But Willis also showed he could lead that type of plan and was efficient when asked to throw the ball.
The touchdown throw to Dontayvian Wicks was placed nicely away from a driving corner, and he trusted Romeo Doubs on a deep ball later in the game. Willis didn’t lead the Packers to victory, but he was not a detriment to the offense, which is much more than what he got to show in Tennessee.
30. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans 
Last Week: 28
Will Levis had arguably the best throw of Week 2 in his touchdown to Calvin Ridley but also the dumbest play of Week 2 with a fumble as he tried to get the ball away while tripping over a defender in the red zone. His next dropback was then an interception on a contested deep ball.
It’s difficult to get past the negative plays with Levis because they’re so negative. If they were going to get cleaned up, you would think it would start by now.
31. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos 
Last Week: 25
Bo Nix is what would happen to Gardner Minshew if Minshew wasn’t completing his current rate of passes. Through two weeks, Nix has been relying on the short area but hasn’t done so by getting the ball out quickly. He’s been hit a ton but has not avoided sacks.
In Week 2, he tried to push the ball down the field more often, but those passes weren’t connecting. He’s 5-of-22 with three interceptions on throws of 11 or more air yards through two weeks. Nix’s game was billed on being hyper-efficient and accurate. We have not seen that come to fruition and without another plus trait, it’s difficult to sustain an offense when that isn’t the case.
32. Skylar Thompson, Miami Dolphins 
Last Week: N/A
Skylar Thompson will take over for the Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve. We’ve seen Thompson in this offense before with a brief stretch and a playoff game in 2022. He has accuracy — that was his calling card as a prospect — but lacks other tools, which is why he was a seventh-round pick.
He doesn’t have the quick release that makes the Tagovailoa version of this offense repeatable. We saw the flaws when he tried to throw to the intermediate level of the field in 2022. This is going to be an offense built around outside runs and screens, limiting what the quarterback is asked to do.
