Expert Analysis
9/18/24
16 min read
2024 NFL Season's 9 Biggest Early Surprises So Far
Two weeks into the 2024 season is too early to draw conclusions on where teams and players are headed in 17 games plus playoffs.
However, several surprises have emerged thus far. Here’s my list of the biggest early surprises.
2024 Season's Biggest Surprises
Minnesota Vikings
After a 7-10 finish last season and with 10 new starters, including at quarterback, with Kirk Cousins leaving for Atlanta in free agency, expectations were low for the Minnesota Vikings this season.
Beating the struggling Giants in the season opener was somewhat expected, even on the road. Knocking off the defending NFC champion 49ers on Sunday as significant home underdogs was a surprising result. The Vikings are now atop the division with their first 2-0 start since 2016.
With 63.7 percent of teams starting 2-0 making the playoffs since 1970, the win against the 49ers made a statement that the team is a playoff contender and potentially a division-title contender.
Sam Darnold is experiencing a career rebirth with two excellent games to begin the season. He was the third overall pick of the New York Jets in 2018 but was considered a bust in New York. After stints in Carolina and San Francisco, Darnold joined the Vikings on a one-year, $10 million contract.
When Minnesota drafted J.J. McCarthy at No. 10 overall, it was assumed Darnold was merely a bridge to McCarthy taking over, but meniscus surgery put McCarthy out for the season. As Darnold heads into a Week 3 home matchup against similarly undefeated Houston, he ranks fifth in passer rating (111.8).
Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell has done a great job teaching Darnold the offensive scheme and instilling confidence in the seventh-year quarterback. That was demonstrated by trusting him to throw a deep ball out of his end zone on the 97-yard TD pass to Justin Jefferson, which shocked the 49ers. Darnold has the best-supporting cast of skill position players (led by the three-time Pro Bowler Jefferson) and an offensive line that he’s ever had in the years he’s been a starter.
Minnesota’s run game with Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler averaged 6.1 yards per carry against the tough 49ers D. The Vikings are helping Darnold by rushing for 37 more yards per game compared to last season when they ranked 29th (now 14th).
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ aggressive and unpredictable defense has more quality players acquired through free agency and the draft and better depth than last year when they ranked 16th. Rotational edge Pat Jones ranks second in the league with four sacks, OLB Andrew Van Ginkel has a pick-six and two sacks, and Blake Cashman had 13 tackles, a sack, a fourth-down tackle of Purdy, and a deflection turned into an interception in the 49er game.
The defense is forcing turnovers (four in two weeks) and making clutch stops (twice on fourth down against the 49ers) while allowing only 23 points in the first two games, the third-fewest in the league.
Purdy was clearly rattled by the pressure that produced six sacks, seven quarterback hits, forced an interception, and a lost fumble. The Vikings lead the league with 11 sacks.
O’Connell said postgame on Sunday, “I told our team last night we’re a really good football team. This team is no joke.”
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints scored touchdowns on their first six drives in their 44-19 Week 2 win against the Cowboys in Dallas. This followed a 47-point outburst in the opening win against Carolina.
The offense was expected to improve in QB Derek Carr’s second season with the team. Still, he’s performing above expectations, working with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Carr has thrown five touchdown passes and only one interception. He also leads the league in passer rating (142.4) and is second in completion rate (76.9 percent).
What’s even more surprising is Alvin Kamara's resurgence as one of the league’s best backs after three straight years of declining production and nagging injuries (10 games missed during that time). He’s a five-time Pro Bowler — but not since 2021 — and rushed for only 694 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, and scored six combined touchdowns in 13 games last season. At 29 years old, it was assumed he was done as an elite back.
Through two games, Kamara has rushed for 198 yards (sixth in the league), a 5.7-yard average, and already has five touchdowns (four rushing and one receiving).
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are dynamic wide receivers for Carr, who has been sacked only twice this season.
Dennis Allen’s defense, led by 35-year-old LB Demario Davis, has improved from 13th to seventh-ranked this season and is No. 3 against the run. The Saints rank third in turnover ratio at plus three.
New Orleans appears primed to challenge the three-time defending NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both are off to 2-0 starts (with Atlanta also expected to be in the mix). The Saints host the Bucs in Week 6 and are at Tampa Bay in the season finale.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen averaged 253 passing yards per game last season as the Buffalo Bills won their fourth straight AFC East title. His starting wide receivers — Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis — departed along with Pro Bowl center Mitch Morse, and it was assumed the offense would take a step back.
But the run game led by James Cook and an opportunistic defense playing through injuries to key starters (linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard) has carried the Bills to a 2-0 start. One came against the better-than-expected Arizona and the other was a resounding 31-10 victory in Week 2 in Miami against a Dolphins team expected by many to finally overtake Buffalo this season.
Allen’s passing numbers are down to 185 yards per game (only 139 yards at Miami), and he’s running less than before. The best thing for him is that there were no turnovers in the Miami game. He only has one lost fumble in the first two games despite dealing with a left-hand injury.
Cook scored three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving) in the first half in Miami. The Bills defense intercepted Tua Tagovailoa three times and stopped the Dolphins three times on fourth down. Ja’Marcus Ingram had his first two career interceptions, including a pick-six. 35-year-old Von Miller is playing well with two sacks after having no sacks and missing five games last season. Greg Rousseau has contributed three sacks.
Coach Sean McDermott is proving he’s a top head coach as he recalibrates his team that was hit hard by the salary cap in the offseason. Allen will surely have to carry a bigger load with a tough three-game road stretch upcoming at Baltimore, Houston, and the Jets after a home game next Monday night against 0-2 Jacksonville.
By then, he should be in better sync with his new wide receiver corps led by Khalil Shakir and rookie second-rounder Keon Coleman.
Arizona Cardinals
The biggest shocker in Week 2 was the Arizona Cardinals’ 41-10 demolition of the Los Angeles Rams, who swept the series last year with dominant wins by 17 and 23 points. This followed a 34-28 opening week loss at Buffalo in a game Arizona led 17-3 in the second quarter.
The Cardinals are on the rise, with the talent level improved and QB Kyler Murray back to full strength after missing half of last season, completing his recovery from a 2022 mid-season ACL injury. He’s off to a great start with a passer rating of 122.9, four touchdown passes, no interceptions, and a 73.1 percent completion rate.
In the Rams game, Murray scrambled for 59 yards and threw for 266 yards. First-round WR Marvin Harrison Jr. served notice on the Rams and the league with four catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns. James Conner rushed for 122 yards as Arizona had 37 minutes in time of possession.
Coach Jonathan Gannon’s underrated defense sacked Matthew Stafford five times (three by linebacker Dennis Gardeck). It held Stafford to 216 passing yards while stopping the run (53 yards rushing with a 2.7 average). Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker has 18 tackles with three tackles for loss in the first two games. The defense has improved from the 25th last season to the 13th so far.
The Cardinals have a big home test against the Detroit Lions this week in a game that could be a lot closer than anticipated when the schedule came out in May.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers were a 10-7 playoff team last season who made a quick exit in a 14-point wild-card round loss at Buffalo. The defense gave up plenty of yards (ranked 21st ) but allowed only 19.1 points per game (6th). They’re even stingier through two games, with 16 points allowed, ranking second.
Pittsburgh’s plus-five turnover ratio leads the league and is the biggest reason they are 2-0 and leading the highly competitive AFC North. The defense intercepted Kirk Cousins twice in the opener at Atlanta, which it followed up by shutting down the Denver offense and picking off Bo Nix twice in the 13-6 win.
Both victories were on the road, which bodes well for a successful season as the Steelers, with their fourth-ranked run defense, prepare to face the 2-0 Chargers, with their second-ranked rushing attack and top-ranked scoring defense, in the home opener on Sunday.
The offense with Justin Fields at quarterback (as Russell Wilson sits with a calf injury) is by no means prolific (30th ranked), but the running game has been solid (12th ranked with 139 yards per game with Najee Harris and Fields shouldering most of the load).
The best news on offense has been that there have been no giveaways in two games, and Fields is getting more comfortable with his new offense. His passer rating is a solid 94.4 (13th ranked).
It’s old-school football with defense and the run game fueling Pittsburgh’s early surge. It’s a star-studded group for Mike Tomlin led by Pro Bowlers T.J. Watt (two sacks), Minkah Fitzpatrick (14 tackles from his safety spot), and LB Patrick Queen. 35-year-old DT Cameron Heyward, a six-time Pro Bowler, still is a force up front, and second-year man Joey Porter Jr. is an emerging shutdown corner.
Detroit Lions Offensive Struggles
The Detroit Lions offense boasts five 2023 Pro Bowlers plus a 2022 Pro Bowl QB in Jared Goff. Yet they’re struggling out of the gate, with Goff held to 217 passing yards in the opening win in overtime against the Rams, and then Goff threw two interceptions in the 20-16 loss to Tampa Bay.
The Lions were shut out by the Bucs in the fourth quarter. Their defense played well enough in holding the Bucs to 216 yards, but the offense didn’t do enough.
The Lions made a critical mistake in having the clock run out when they were at the Bucs' 9-yard line at the end of the first half and incurred a penalty for too many men on the field. Goff compounded his bad day by throwing short of the first down sticks on 4th-and-10 from the Bucs 26 to end the game.
Goff’s passer rating through two games is a lowly 69.6 to rank 25th after his 2023 season when he was ninth at 97.9 as he led the Lions to the NFC title game and a near upset of the 49ers.
Detroit’s offense is still churning out yards (413 per game) but not generating enough points (21 per game after averaging 27 per game last season).
Much more is expected from this offense, which has one of the best offensive lines and dynamic skill players in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs to support Goff.
It’s a shaky start for a 14-win team last season (including two playoff victories) that many picked to go to the Super Bowl this season.
The upcoming schedule is formidable. This week, the team plays a road game in the Arizona heat against an improving team. Then, it plays a home game against 2-0 Seattle and road games at Dallas and Minnesota. Coach Dan Campbell has a challenge to right this talented ship.
Baltimore Ravens Sluggish Start
It’s been tough sledding through two weeks for last year’s No. 1 seed in the AFC. Losing the opener at Kansas City to the two-time defending champs was no sin, although there were concerns when MVP Lamar Jackson ran it 16 times —most of them to escape pressure — due to his porous offensive line breaking in three new starters.
Dropping the home opener 26-23 to the Raiders when the Baltimore Ravens blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead was much more alarming. Derrick Henry had only one carry in the last 10 minutes.
In the second half alone, Gardner Minshew carved up the Baltimore defense by completing 16 of 22 for 212 yards and one TD. Mahomes already had passed for 291 yards in the opener. It’s a defense that lost several key starters in free agency due to salary cap issues.
The offensive line must improve quickly to keep Jackson upright and open more holes for Henry, while defensive All-Pros Nnamdi Madubuike, Roquan Smith, and Kyle Hamilton must lead a charge back into the AFC North race.
The next three games are challenging, but the Ravens must stay afloat as they travel to Dallas this week, host Buffalo on Sunday night, and face a division rival at Cincinnati.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers
This is a story of perseverance for J.K. Dobbins, a second-round pick of the Ravens in 2020. He suffered through a torn ACL that cost him the entire 2021 season, knee problems that sidelined him for 10 games in 2022, and then a torn Achilles in Week 1 last season.
The Ravens gave up on him, and new Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh was happy to pick him up on a one-year deal and give him a chance to revive his career in the Chargers’ run-oriented offense.
Dobbins has rewarded Harbaugh and the Chargers with a fantastic start this season. He has 266 rushing yards, a lofty 9.9 yards per carry, and two TDs as he shares the rushing load with Gus Edwards.
Dobbins ran for 135 yards in the opening win over Las Vegas and followed it up with 131 yards in the victory at Carolina. It will be interesting to see if he can keep it up with tough tests the next two games at Pittsburgh (allowing only 76 yards rushing per game) and then at home against the Chiefs, who had the league’s No. 2 defense last season.
Caleb Williams Rookie Growing Pains
There are usually growing pains for rookie quarterbacks, with C.J. Stroud being an exception to the rule last season while Bryce Young has struggled mightily (now benched). Still, the expectations are high for first-round quarterbacks, especially those drafted first overall.
The Chicago Bears have been seeking a franchise quarterback for several decades, with Justin Fields most recently not panning out in the Windy City.
Enter Caleb Williams with a can’t-miss label, but it’s been a surprisingly rocky start for the USC product. His offensive line has not protected him well for the most part, but even when he’s had time, he’s too often held the ball and gotten sacked, rushed his throws, or taken off on the run.
In the opener against Tennessee, Williams passed for only 93 yards. The Bears won the game with a blocked punt return TD and a Pick 6. Week 2 on the national Sunday night stage at Houston was a disaster for Williams. He was sacked seven times, pressured on 48 percent of his dropbacks, and threw two interceptions. He has no TD passes in his first two games. There’s also been little help from the Chicago run game, with D’Andre Swift averaging 2.0 yards per carry.
Williams's passer rating is an abysmal 53.0, which ranks 30th, ahead of only fellow recent first-rounders Bo Nix and Young.
Williams has three excellent receivers in DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, but their numbers have been dismal through two games (Moore has 11 catches for 89 yards, Allen has four catches for 29 yards, and he missed Week 2 with a heel injury. Also, Odunze has only three catches for 44 yards).
Chicago’s offense ranks 31st with the last-ranked passing game. Clearly not what was expected with the first overall pick coming aboard.
Perhaps Williams and the Bears offense can make some progress with a friendly schedule against currently 0-2 teams in the next four weeks — at Indianapolis, vs. the Rams and Carolina at home, and against Jacksonville in London. If not, the Bears fans' limited patience will soon run out.
