NFL Analysis
2/23/24
8 min read
2024 NFL Draft: How to Build an Offense Around Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams has been the prospective No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft for more than two years. While there’s a case for Drake Maye, who may be the preference for some teams and evaluators, Williams hasn’t done anything to move out of QB1 status.
That alone is an impressive feat — there was so much hype and so many expectations surrounding his college career, which included a Heisman-winning 2022 season.
As is the case with any high pick, especially a quarterback, a team should have a plan in place to fit Williams into an offensive system and ensure a smooth transition from college to the NFL. To understand what will be needed for Williams in an offense, we need to better understand him as a player.
What Williams' New Team Must Do
What makes Williams so appealing is his unique style of play. That’s his main selling point. Williams combines a big arm and the ability to change throwing angles with the mobility to make those things matter at a seemingly impossible speed.
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) February 22, 2024
Williams wowed with wild throws out of structure that created big plays. All his highlights and the focus will be there, and for good reason. But that’s somehow selling Williams short as a quarterback.
The idea Williams needs to be reined in to play a more professional style of football is a misunderstanding of who he is as a quarterback and why so many of those out-of-structure plays were necessary.
During the 2023 season, the USC offense relied on Williams making those plays while the offensive line and scheme itself struggled. Although Lincoln Riley has created some of the best offenses in college football and helped develop future starting NFL quarterbacks, USC wasn’t a Kyle Shanahan–type offense that made things easier for the quarterback.
Williams had to carry a ton of weight on his shoulders, especially with a defense that couldn’t make a stop. Per SP+, USC's offense was third in college football last season, and the defense ranked 105th out of 133 schools.
Although Williams had more dropbacks in 2022, his job was harder in 2023. His raw numbers were down compared with his Heisman-winning season, but his degree of difficulty was so much higher. Still, Williams finished 2023 11th in QBR.
This idea is one of the biggest keys for the NFL offense Williams goes to. Just because Williams can carry an offense this way doesn’t mean he should. He can be a great quarterback in structure if the offense allows.
One of the first things that should be implemented for a Williams offense is a quick-strike deep passing game like we’ve seen with early-career Joe Burrow and Mike McDaniel–era Tua Tagovailoa.
Burrow and Tagovailoa's offenses designed quick-hitting deep passing to protect the quarterback from the offensive line having to hold up in pass protection. It also took advantage of the touch and accuracy those players have. Williams can do the same.
Williams Must Be Allowed to Keep Making Quick Throws
Should Williams go to the Chicago Bears under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, this aforementioned style of play wouldn't be an issue. Waldron, with the Seattle Seahawks, ran many concepts that would help Williams, and Waldron learned from Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams offense.
Last year with the Seahawks, Geno Smith had the fourth-most attempts of 20 or more air yards while throwing within 2.5 seconds of the snap, per TruMedia.
Many of those throws were well-schemed and allowed Smith to trust his receivers. Some plays took advantage of Seattle's fast receivers, while others used motion and spacing to create the opportunities.
Even if Williams trusts his new offensive line, it would be nice to have plays where that unit won’t be an issue. At the same time, there’s still the potential for a big play while taking advantage of one of the quarterback’s biggest strengths: Williams had the fourth-highest completion percentage on deep passes in 2023.
Getting the ball out quickly by design would help Williams stay in structure. It would also help avoid one of the biggest problems, which was quick pressure. Many of his extended plays came when he was pressured immediately, and Williams would do his best to avoid it. Thankfully, he’s great at throwing when on the move.
Williams has a good feel for pressure and can step up in the pocket to create a play.
The Trojans leaned heavily into RPOs to get the ball out quickly. Some people might get stuck on how often the offense used RPOs and play-action, but those aren't necessary for Williams' success. Those were more constraint plays to get the ball out in space behind the line of scrimmage; it wasn’t a way to hide the quarterback like many other college programs do.
On non-play-action passes, Williams still averaged 9.6 yards per attempt and was willing to push the ball down the field.
Can Williams Play Under Center?
A piece of the play-action game that could change for Williams is how often he was in shotgun and how little the USC offense used under center. That might be a concern for some teams, but we’ve seen plenty of quarterbacks figure out how to go under center after playing almost exclusively in the shotgun.
But to ease that transition, one thing Williams’ new team could steal is the Rams’ pistol offense, which they used more often toward the end of 2023. Pistol formations are an easy way to marry aspects of the shotgun passing game with an under-center run game.
This could also split the difference for play-action, where the offense could run shotgun play-action but also boot Williams out and take advantage of his ability to make plays outside of the pocket and throw on the run.
This wouldn’t be new to Waldron and the Chicago offense — in Seattle, Smith ran the fifth-highest rate of pistol formations in the past two seasons.
Williams might need some schemed help in the middle of the field, specifically the intermediate level. Success in that part of the field was the one area where Williams fell below average in Derrick Klassen’s chart. That shouldn’t be a surprise for a quarterback on the shorter side — Williams is listed at 6-foot-1.
Moving the pocket to create throwing lanes or flooding the middle of the field with crossers could benefit Williams and increase volume and efficiency there.
If there’s a crosser plan to steal, it might come from the Minnesota Vikings, where Kevin O’Connell changes up the looks and players to open up those throws. During the past two years, Kirk Cousins was fourth in EPA per play on crossers. Williams has the aggressiveness to attack and hit those holes on time.
Williams Doesn't Need an Overcomplicated Offense
What makes Williams special is his feel for the game. Occasionally, that turns into running around like a madman, willing something to open down the field. But he often pulls the right levers at the right time.
The wild play-making is a way to make the offense right when things go wrong… it’s not Williams being wrong in his process. That’s an important distinction.
His style and physical traits will force defenses to change the way they play to defend him — as they have to do with players such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Burrow. There’s a path to success regardless of the offensive system.
The Washington Commanders, with the No. 2 overall pick, could have that under Kliff Kingsbury — as long as the Commanders look and act more like his early-season Arizona Cardinals teams and don’t fail to adjust throughout the season.
Williams is a unique quarterback, but not in a way where he requires some overcomplicated offense to be successful
How the offense is set up around Williams’ skills could be key to how quickly his NFL impact matches what he did in college. However that plays out, he will make things a lot easier for whichever coaching staff gets to design their offense around him.
