NFL Analysis
10/28/24
23 min read
1st & 10 Week 8: Commanders Hail Mary, Bills Offense, Ravens Defensive Woes & More
What an unexpectedly fun slate we had in Week 8, featuring what might have been the most intense Witching Hour we’ve seen on RedZone. Someone check on Scott Hanson, please. But of course, we’re not just checking in on the highlights; we’re watching and diving into everything here.
Each week, 1st & 10 will bring you a Monday morning in-depth breakdown of everything you need to know from Sunday’s slate of games. We’ll fill this column with stats, film, and plenty of words to keep you covered on anything you might have missed or want to dive deeper into from Sunday.
All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise
1st & 10 NFL Week 8
1. Commanders, Bears And A Wild Finish
The matchup we wanted between the two top picks of the 2024 NFL Draft turned into a defensive battle for much of the game before Caleb Williams woke up in the fourth quarter, and Jayden Daniels answered with a walk-off Hail Mary for an 18-15 Washington Commanders win against the Chicago Bears.
Daniels was no sure thing to play after he suffered a rib injury early in last week’s game and did not practice all week outside of a walkthrough. But he tested the ribs in the pregame warmup and was good to go. While playing at below 100 percent, Daniels had his first game of negative EPA per play and a success rate under 50 percent on the season.
Yet, he played well through his highest degree of difficulty, both physically and in the plays he needed to make to keep the Commanders in the game.
Chicago kept the Washington run game in check by playing light and swarming to the ball. The Bears played base defense on 27.6 percent of their snaps but also played with a light box on 63 percent of snaps. Some Commanders' counting stats look fine on the ground, but those include a meaningless 29-yard from Austin Ekeler on the final play of the first half.
On running back carries, Washington averaged -0.20 EPA per play and a 29.2 percent success rate. Those were the second-worst of the season for Washington after the game against Baltimore when the Commanders only had 11 running back carries.
With the Bears not loading the box, the linebackers tried to take away the short and underneath throws the Commanders have lived on so far this season. Daniels was forced to hold onto the ball and make deeper throws, finishing with a 12.0-yard average depth of target and a 3.29-second average time to throw, both season-highs.
Even as the Commanders have opened up the offense week-by-week, bringing in more downfield passing, 72 percent of Daniels’s throws coming into the week had been 10 air yards or under. The Bears made an effort to take those throws away, and just 47.4 percent of his throws were within 10 air yards in Week 8.
Daniels was forced to escape pressure and didn’t have many easy throws at his disposal. His expected completion rate of 57.2 percent was his lowest of the season, according to Next Gen Stats.
When Daniels could throw those passes in the rhythm of the offense, they looked quite good, like the 61-yard throw to Terry McLaurin in the first quarter.
Or the 20-yard throw to Zach Ertz in the third.
But a season-low 25 percent of Washington drives reached the end zone, and the Commanders did not score a touchdown in the first 59 minutes of the game, keeping the Bears in it while being outplayed.
Chicago’s offense, after making huge strides before last week’s bye, looked like the ineffective early-season version. Through three quarters, Williams had completed 4-of-13 passes for 36 yards and -0.53 EPA per play.
Williams was running around, fighting off interior pressure as he had early in the season. Washington’s second-round pick Jer’Zhan Newton was a force in the middle, picking up seven pressures on 16 pass rush snaps, with six of those on early downs. He had three quarterback hits.
Washington had a season-high blitz rate of 41.9 percent, and Williams was pressured on 61 percent of his dropbacks. Whether through the extra rushers or the interior of the pocket collapsing, Williams never looked comfortable behind center.
Despite all that pressure, Williams was only sacked twice. A quarterback with less escapability could have turned that pressure into a disastrous performance, but Williams kept it at least manageable by turning what could have been huge negative plays into incomplete passes.
Williams found a groove in the fourth quarter. He went 6-of-11 for 95 yards, looked more like the quarterback from his previous few games, and brought Chicago down to the goal line twice.
The first time the Bears got to the goal line, they faced a third-and-goal from the 1-yard line.
Down by five, they lined up Doug Kramer, a backup offensive lineman, as the fullback and handed the ball to him. We’ll use “handed” loosely because the exchange was not made cleanly, and Washington recovered the fumble.
It’s nearly impossible to defend this play-call. According to TruMedia, there have been 10 carries by a player of at least 300 pounds in the red zone since 2000. We remember some fun goal line runs by the likes of Akiem Hicks, Dontari Poe, and B.J. Raji.
But none of those carries were made with a team trailing. Five were done in a tie game, but none of those were attempted in the second half, let alone such a high-leverage spot in the fourth quarter.
Technically, there still hasn’t been a carry in that situation because the ball was out so quickly on Chicago’s exchange that Kramer was never credited with a carry in the play-by-play, and Williams was charged with the fumble.
Still, the Bears got the ball back after a three-and-out, and Williams got the Bears down the field again. The drive was capped with a Roschon Johnson touchdown run from the 1-yard line to give Chicago a 15-12 lead.
Now, we have to talk about the Hail Mary and everything that went wrong for the Bears.
Let’s start with the pass rush. There was none. Chicago rushed four, kind of. Three Bears tried to rush while there was a spy waiting just beyond the line of scrimmage. That didn’t do much because Daniels had plenty of time and no pressure as he ran around for nearly 13 seconds to make a throw into the end zone.
By now, you’ve probably seen the video of Bears cornerback Tyrqiue Stevenson taunting Commanders fans, not just before the play but after the ball had been snapped. Stevenson gets to the play late and runs to the ball, leaving Noah Brown wide-open behind the scrum to catch the ricochet.
It’s devastating for the Bears to lose, but it's also a deserved loss because the Commanders outplayed them for most of the game.
Based on what we've seen so far this season, neither quarterback played at his best, but each player’s skills kept the game close. This will hopefully be a fun matchup to revisit as the years go on, with two highly talented quarterbacks who might get some more help next time.
2. Bills offense is finding its groove
A matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Seahawks was expected to be one of the week's best games between two playoff contenders. It turned into an easy 31-10 Buffalo win, as the Bills' offense rolled over a Seahawks defense that hasn’t completely figured things out under Mike Macdonald.
All of the elements for what we hoped a full-strength Buffalo offense would look like were on display, even as Amari Cooper only had one catch for three yards on two targets. Khalil Shakir broke 100 yards receiving, Keon Coleman had another productive day, and Dalton Kincaid had a touchdown. Meanwhile, James Cook ran through the Seahawks for 111 yards and two touchdowns.
This might have been Buffalo’s best combination of player talent and scheme working together. Allen had 0.34 EPA per play, his third-best of the season, while he threw deep at his highest rate in a game this year. A ton of that came from under-center play-action, which hadn’t been a big element of the passing game so far this season. His four completions and 82 yards off under-center play-action were his most in a game this year.
All of the pieces were in place. Shakir ran 70 percent of his routes from the slot and was more emboldened to find space in the middle of the field.
The Coleman development might be the most exciting thing for the Bills. His connection with Allen is growing, and that’s shown in the past two weeks. Coleman was in open space near the sideline after Allen left the pocket on a third-and-10 in the first quarter.
The Bills are using his size as a red zone threat. To cap off that same drive, he caught a two-yard touchdown pass over Riq Woolen on third-and-goal.
He still lined up on the outside for 86 percent of his snaps, but he had a 21-yard reception from the slot, again using his frame on a slot fade.
Coleman had 70 yards on five catches on the day. He has 3.48 yards per toute run and four catches of 20 or more yards in the past two weeks.
The ground game is working with Cook, Allen, and Ray Davis. Having a legitimate run threat to keep things moving on the ground has been something the Bills have wanted to do for years but couldn't figure out. Run blocking has been a plus this season, and it’s built on the second half of last season when the run was a bigger part of the offense.
When the run game is working, the passing game has a better path to being efficient, and Allen does not have to play hero ball. That’s been the biggest difference between the offense under Joe Brady and the Ken Doresy offense from early in last season.
By EPA per drive, the offenses are about even — with an edge to the 2023 offense — but not turning the ball over, and the massive improvement there has allowed this version to be more sustainable. That’s part of the design.
Buffalo is third in EPA per drive this season, and we still have yet to see a fully ingrained Cooper in this offense.
There’s so much working for this team right now, and this shouldn’t be the ceiling just yet. With such a big lead in the division, the Bills have time to figure it out. They’ll probably want to do so before the Week 11 meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs.
3. Is the Ravens' defense a problem?
The Baltimore Ravens lost to the Browns 29-24 on a 38-yard touchdown from Jameis Winston to Cedric Tillman with 59 seconds left in the game.
It was a back-and-forth battle that saw the Ravens give away a few chances to win—especially a dropped Kyle Hamilton interception on the play before the Tillman touchdown — and exposed this team’s biggest weakness this season: the defense.
Coming into this game, the Ravens were a modest 13th in defensive DVOA. That came from a solid run defense (fifth), and they were just 18th against the pass. Baltimore has been killed by opposing No. 1 receivers this season (28th in DVOA), but that wasn’t expected to be an issue against the Browns since Cleveland doesn’t really have one. Ranking 29th against tight ends doesn’t help against David Njoku, though, who had 61 yards and a touchdown.
However, the defensive issues were apparent throughout the day, with the biggest deficiency coming from the pass rush. The Ravens pressured Winston on 23 percent of his dropbacks but couldn’t do much when they did get pressure outside of a Kyle Hamilton strip-sack.
Cleveland immediately saw an upgrade at quarterback. Winston made plays under pressure and got the ball out, unlike the previous quarterback, who could not extend plays and took a league-leading number of hits.
The spine of Baltimore’s defense was the strength last season, but the whole has not been the sum of its parts this year. Roquan Smith hasn’t been the same coverage linebacker, and the back end of the defense has been a mess. No team had been worse coming into the game at defending throws to the deep middle of the field by DVOA. The Browns took advantage of that.
Look at the two Tillman touchdowns, one from late in the third quarter and the game-winner in the fourth. Both just send Tillman to the middle of the field, stressing veteran Eddie Jackson (39) in space.
On the first touchdown, Tillman was given plenty of space with Jayln Armour-Davis playing far outside. Jackson had a chance to make a tackle but whiffed on the attempt.
Then, on the winning touchdown, Jackson was caught flat-footed, and Tillman ran right by him for an open score. Jackson was also in coverage for David Njoku’s touchdown.
With Hamilton playing closer to the line of scrimmage this season, the Ravens have relied on Jackson and Marcus Williams as the deep safety duo. That’s been a rough go so far, and it’s been an issue all season. It could continue to be an issue for the Ravens, as they still haven’t found the right formula after Mike Macdonald's departure.
We’ll see how much of a long-term concern this is. Obviously, the deep middle of the field, tight ends, and No. 1 receivers are not the best issues to have for a team that could be a Super Bowl contender.
The weaknesses put more weight on the shoulders of Lamar Jackson, who led a late go-ahead touchdown drive only for it to be erased with the Tillman touchdown.
4. San Francisco Still Has Too Much Talent On Offense
The San Francisco 49ers really needed this game, and so did the Cowboys, but the difference is how big the margin of error has become for these two teams, especially on offense.
Even without Christian McCaffrey and now with Brandon Aiyuk out for the season, the 49ers relied on offensive weapons to make plays, still having George Kittle and Deebo Samuel available.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys rolled out Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott as the running back tandem, forcing Dak Prescott to be perfect with only CeeDee Lamb as a reliable target. The difference in how these teams were built was apparent.
Early in the first quarter, San Francisco showed what the talent and schematic advantage could do. Samuel was in the backfield for a third-and-6.
The 49ers sent him on a shuffle motion, which brought LB Eric Kendricks from the A-gap to where Samuel had motioned. With the man coverage indicator, Samuel ran a wheel route and blew past an overmatched Kendricks for a 47-yard gain.
San Francisco used that tactic often with McCaffrey last season, but using Samuel as a threat out of the backfield gives the 49ers those easy mismatches in coverage.
The Cowboys have been among the leaders in playing base defense this season, though they do have some smaller linebackers, but even in their typical personnel packages, the 49ers overpowered them on the ground and through the air.
Kittle had 128 receiving yards and a touchdown, and he did not see a single tight-window target, according to Next Gen Stats.
The San Francisco offense had been relying on straight Brock Purdy dropbacks and deep throws into tight windows for much of the season, but even without Purdy going back to a heavy play-action offense, this was the closest the passing game has looked to the traditional “Shannahan offense.”
San Francisco has a bye in Week 9 and is expecting to get McCaffrey back in Week 10. We won’t know how effective he’ll be, but when he’s on the field, how defenses can play the 49ers completely changes.
We got a glimpse of those tactics on Sunday night, and even a little bit of McCaffrey could be a big boost for this offense, which surprisingly heads into the bye at 4-4.
5. The Eagles Looked Like A Real Offense
With the caveat that the Cincinnati Bengals defense is bad, the Philadelphia Eagles looked like a real offense in a 37-17 win.
Jalen Hurts looked comfortable from the start. He led the week with 0.58 EPA per play and a 63.3 percent success rate. His comfort was clear, not just as a passer but as a runner.
Hurts hasn’t been as explosive as a runner, but he looked more fluid on designed runs and scrambles, including getting to the edge on this seven-yard touchdown run in the third quarter.
The Bengals didn’t know what to do on defense. Cincinnati blitzed Hurts on 28.6 percent of his dropbacks, but he went 4-of-5 for 50 yards against an extra rusher. When the Bengals dropped eight, Hurts went 2-for-2 for 36 yards. Yet, when it was just a four-man rush, Hurts tore that up, too, completing 76.9 percent of his passes of 11.2 yards per attempt.
On a 29-yard pass to A.J. Brown in the first quarter, the Bengals got caught asking their linebackers to do too much in zone coverage. DeVonta Smith ran a vertical from the slot, and Brown looped a crosser underneath it. There are two linebackers backpedaling into coverage, and neither could get into a throwing lane.
Hurts was 6-of-6 for a season-high 17 yards per attempt and 1.39 EPA per play on throws between the numbers against the Bengals.
This Philadelphia passing offense has too much talent, and it will win as long as there are no disastrous plays beforehand and the Eagles aren’t forced to play from behind.
Eagles receivers are just too good, and they can separate and win contested catches against anyone they’re against. Add in Hurts’ deep ball, and you get something like the 46-yard Smith touchdown in the third quarter
If only the Eagles could start the game off hot, then they might be onto something.
6. Falcons offense is good, the defense is not
Since the panic in Week 1 over whether Kirk Cousins could move (he still can’t; there’s just less panic about it now), the Atlanta Falcons have figured out what to do on offense. Atlanta is seventh in EPA per drive, and Cousins just had a four-touchdown day while averaging 9.5 yards per attempt.
Kyle Pitts is scoring multiple touchdowns; that’s how well things are going with the Falcons right now.
At 5-3, Atlanta has taken the top spot in the NFC South thanks to Sunday’s 31-26 win against Tampa Bay. The offense led them there, but how serious this team can be late in the season could come down to the defense.
Atlanta is 23rd in EPA per play on defense, and opponents have scored 48.7 percent on drives, which is the third-highest rate in the league. The Falcons still have one of the league’s worst pass-rush units, ranked 29th in pressure rate and 32nd in sack rate at just 2.2 percent.
That’s one of the worst sack rates for a team through eight weeks since 2000.
There isn’t much hope for the pass rush, which only pressured Baker Mayfield on 11.8 percent of his dropbacks. And while the Buccaneers have gotten the ball out of Mayfield’s hand quickly to eliminate the threat of pressure, this was not one of those games. Mayfield averaged 2.62 seconds to throw, and only 50 percent of his dropbacks were within 2.5 seconds of the snap. He had time.
Atlanta’s secondary and its stars could be the only hope for defensive production. The Falcons got that against the Buccaneers, as Jessie Bates and A.J. Terrell had interceptions.
Bates also had a punchout forced fumble earlier in the game.
The Falcons might just be good enough on offense to sustain some of the shootouts they’ve gotten themselves into, while a big play on defense could be enough to make a difference.
7. Panic Meter: Jordan Love & Stefon Diggs Injuries
In Week 8 wins, two playoff contenders lost key players to injuries with the severity unknown.
Packers QB Jordan Love left the game early with a groin injury after he was laboring through some dropbacks earlier in the game. When speaking to reporters after the game, Matt LaFleur said, “Obviously, high level of concern…”
That’s not great, and the timing isn’t ideal. Green Bay has a Week 10 bye, which could benefit Love if he needs to rest, but next week’s game is against the Detroit Lions. In what could be a closely contested divisional race, missing Love for that game would be a blow even while Malik Willis has filled in admirably.
In Houston, Stefon Diggs left the game late in the third quarter, grabbing his knee with a non-contact injury. He walked off under his own power but did not return, and there were not many details available after the game.
Already down Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud threw five times in the fourth quarter, all completions — two to John Metchie, one to Robert Woods, and one to Tank Dell. Things keep getting harder for Stroud, who led Houston to a 23-20 win against Indianapolis.
Without Diggs, Houston could lean more into the run game, which would set Stroud up for longer third downs with a depleted receiving corps, advancing the cycle we’ve seen already.
At 6-2, the Texans aren’t in danger of losing the season, but they have not fully gotten the offense clicking, and being down another top receiver, for however long it might be, won’t help.
8. Chart of the day
We were concerned with Marvin Harrison Jr.’s usage to this point in the season. There had been some good plays sprinkled in, but the consistency was not there, and the chemistry with Kyler Murray felt nonexistent.
The Cardinals were using their top draft pick on go routes and hitches on more than half of his routes, which left no room for creating space and big plays.
Well, against the Dolphins, the Cardinals used Harrison on a bunch of crossers, and it worked. Harrison had 111 and a touchdown with three big plays off those long crossing routes. This was a much better way to use the No. 1 receiver and should be something to build on for the rest of the season.
9. Play of the day
The Detroit Lions scored 52 points while having 61 net passing yards. It was an all-around effort for Detroit in a blowout win against the Titans. It’s a bit of a cheat code to spend one of two weeks Jameson Williams is suspended by still eclipsing 50 points while only throwing 15 times.
Kalif Raymond had two big punt returns, including this 90-yarder for a touchdown. The Titans came into this game ranked 32nd in special teams DVOA and the worst punt unit by more than double the next-worst team. They lived up — or down — to those ratings in this game.
10. The 2024 Jets Are Done. What About The 2025 team?
Where do the New York Jets go now?
As flawed as an all-in-season building around a 40-year-old quarterback was, that’s where the Jets leaned. Now, after a 25-22 loss to the New England Patriots, the Jets sit at 2-6 and 15th in the AFC playoff seeding. For a team that had Super Bowl aspirations, this season couldn’t have turned out much worse.
As the Jets tried to right the ship, they made moves to further cement the idea that this could be their year. Robert Saleh was fired, and now the defense looks worse. But hey, they got Haason Reddick to show up. The offensive changes, like switching from Nathaniel Hackett to Todd Downing, only did so much. The Jets just traded a third-round pick for Davante Adams, which has resulted in two losses.
It’s hard to imagine the 2024 Jets going anywhere, and that puts a focus on what the 2025 version of this team will be. Will this be another team built around Rodgers and what he needs? Does that include a new head coach hire that will appease a 41-year-old quarterback, potentially three years removed from his last good season? Does that go for a general manager, too? Who wants that type of role with such a high degree of difficulty in Year 1?
The Jets have $51 million in cap space, with much of the roster locked in and some outs to create more space. But what will be done with Adams, who has two years remaining on his contract but at non-guaranteed salaries of over $30 million? Do the Jets extend him or move on after 11 games and a third-round pick?
The Jets have some serious thinking to do about who they want to be going forward. It will take some foresight to come up with a plan to transition to the next era of whatever this franchise will be. However, given how impulsive and chaotic this current build has been, it might not be that easy.