NFL Analysis
11/25/24
22 min read
1st & 10 Week 12: Caleb Vs. Vikings, Saquon Barkley, Seahawks Defense, and More
Never judge a slate by its matchups. In an early set of games that looked a bit underwhelming, we got some crazy finishes while our exciting primetime matchup became a runway blowout. There was a lot of action in the final week before Thanksgiving, so let’s get to it.
Each week, 1st & 10 will bring you a Monday morning an in-depth breakdown of everything you need to know from Sunday’s slate of games. We’ll fill this column with stats, film, and plenty of words to keep you covered on anything you might have missed or want to dive deeper into from Sunday.
All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise
1st & 10 NFL Week 12
1. Vikings-Bears was a wild ride
The Chicago Bears know how to make games exciting, even in losses. Chicago lost to Minnesota 30-27 in overtime after a fourth-quarter comeback that had them trailing 24-10 entering the quarter.
Caleb Williams had another brilliant game that did not result in a win, but his play in the past two weeks with Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator has been a positive sign for the first overall pick.
Against one of the toughest defenses in the league, Williams finished with 0.07 EPA per play, becoming just the third quarterback this season to finish with positive EPA against the Brian Flores-led Vikings defense.
The Vikings blitzed on just 21.8 percent of Williams’ dropbacks, which was the lowest rate for Minnesota this season. While the Vikings tried to overwhelm opposing passers with blitzes, they backed off a bit as Williams tore the blitz up. Against the blitz, Williams was 9-of-11 for 151 yards and 0.59 EPA per play.
Williams started the day on a hot streak, threading tight window throws.
He also extended plays and put the ball in a place where only his receiver could come down with it.
On a second-and-12 in the first quarter, he hit D’Andre Swift down the sideline with a throw that perfectly hung up in the air like an Ultimate Frisbee flick with enough loft for Swift to find it and come down with the pass.
Again, the Bears focused on getting the ball out quickly for Williams, and his 2.41 average seconds to throw was his second-fastest behind last week (2.37), while 63.8 percent of his throws were out within 2.5 seconds of the snap.
But getting that rhythm down early allowed Williams to be incredible when he had to extend plays, averaging 0.34 EPA per play on dropbacks of 2.5 seconds or more.
Late in the fourth quarter, he escaped pressure and found Keenan Allen in the back of the end zone for a touchdown.
His most impressive throw might have been the one that got the Bears into field goal range to tie the game at the end of regulation. He found DJ Moore over two Vikings defenders and got the offense up to the ball for the spike with three seconds left.
That was set up only because the Bears recovered an onside kick, the first one of the season, after the ball hit off a Vikings player before the kick traveled 10 yards.
Of course, this is a lot of words for the team that lost the game. But how Williams played showed there might not be that much difference between a Bears team that is 4-7 and a Vikings team that is now 9-2.
The Vikings have kept to a similar offensive formula, and it continues to work. However, there has been an adjustment as defenses have sold out to stop Justin Jefferson from taking over games. He hasn’t hit 100 receiving yards in any of his past three games, and he only had 27 yards on five targets against the Bears, but his gravity impacts the entire defense, and the Vikings have opened up opportunities for the other receivers on the roster.
Jordan Addison had 162 yards, and T.J. Hockenson had 114 yards. On some of their biggest plays, Jefferson was used to pull some attention away from the intended receiver.
On Addison’s 69-yard catch, the Vikings came out in 12 personnel, and the Bears matched with base. Jefferson motioned to a stack on the right with Addison just before the snap. Putting Jefferson there drew the corner and linebacker Jack Sanborn (57). That left Addison space to run behind Tremaine Edmunds (49) and outrun safety Jonathan Owens.
Then, on a third-and-12 late in the fourth quarter, the Vikings had Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson in a bunch to the right.
Hockenson motioned in from the outside to inside and followed the release of Jefferson, who ran through Jaylon Johnson. Edwards couldn’t react with Jefferson right in front of him, so by the time Hockenson broke outside, he had space for a big gain.
CLUTCH GENE ✅
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 24, 2024
Sam Darnold x @TheeHOCK8
📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/PdaxrPYldw
There are just continual answers to be found for this Minnesota offense. Even in overtime, when Darnold was sacked on first down, he came back for a seven-yard gain to Hockenson on second down and then found Addison for 13 yards on third-and-10 deep in their own territory.
The Vikings finish their season against a run of likely playoff teams and a second meeting with the Bears in three weeks. Minnesota plays Arizona, Atlanta, Seattle, Green Bay, and Detroit. All of those can be winnable games, or at least the Vikings won’t appear overmatched in any.
Minnesota is fourth in point differential through Week 12 and is already virtually a lock to make the playoffs. This final stretch of games could let us know how serious of a playoff contender this team will be, with some potential previews along the way.
2. Packers Run Through 49ers, Who Might Be done
Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers is a fun matchup, typically pitting two of the league’s best teams against each other in a close game. This was not that.
With the 49ers missing several players, including Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, and Nick Bosa, this game was never all that close, as the Packers won 38-10.
Green Bay ran all over San Francisco’s defense, as Josh Jacobs had 106 yards and three touchdowns in the game. Jacobs had a 46.2 percent success rate on the ground, while 53.8 percent of his carries were into a stacked box of eight or more defenders.
Per Next Gen Stats, Jacobs had 15 forced missed tackles, the most for a runner in a single game this season, and he forced a missed tackle on 57.7 percent of his runs.
The Packers had full control of this game despite the score not getting carried away until the end. Green Bay slowly kept the run going with successful carries, even though there were not many explosive plays. Plowing through stacked boxes helped keep the offense on track as the Packers ran the ball on nearly 70 percent of their early down plays.
Green Bay has kept some of the motions and misdirections used during the Malik Willis starts, and they’ve continued to work.
In this game, it started with Jacobs and Jayden Reed in a split-back look. Jordan Love faked the handoff to read, which pulled the linebackers and then handed the ball off to Jacobs for an 18-yard gain.
As a passer, Love was again incredibly efficient without having to fully carry the offense. He pushed the ball down the field with a 12.2-yard aDOT and finished with 0.37 EPA per play, the third-highest mark for a quarterback this week.
This was a tough game for the 49ers. Brandon Allen threw an interception to Xavier McKinney and was strip-sacked twice with one lost. There were still chunk gains, but nothing fully clicked. Allen finished with -0.61 EPA per play, the worst for a quarterback in Week 12.
That now puts the 49ers in an unenviable spot. Per The Upshot’s playoff probability, San Francisco has just a five percent chance to make the playoffs. It’s not just that the 49ers are 5-6 and play in a crowded division. The schedule going forward won't be an easy one to make a run against.
San Francisco plays in Buffalo next week, followed by games against the Bears, Rams, Dolphins, Lions, and Cardinals. If they beat the Bills next week, the odds go up to about 11 percent. It’s not an easy path.
That could leave us to wonder what could happen to this version of the 49ers. This could be the final run with it. After Brandon Aiyuk got his deal before the season, it was expected the team would eventually move on from Deebo Samuel.
Trent Williams is 36 years old and is battling through injuries. George Kittle just turned 31, and he’s missed time. This doesn’t even go into the Brock Purdy contract decision, which could shape how the rest of the roster is built for the foreseeable future.
It’s tough that the unofficial end could have come with so many of those players not on the field. This is still a talented team at its best, but we haven’t seen its best yet this season. If it's going to make a run, we’re going to have to see it immediately.
3. Chiefs win close again but in a different way
The Kansas City Chiefs have made a season out of winning weirdly close games. It happened again, as Kansas City needed a last-second field goal to beat the Carolina Panthers 30-27. While the main story was the same, the way the Chiefs got there was much different.
This was a game led by the Kansas City offense — maybe the first time this season that’s been said. The Chiefs had 0.26 EPA per play on offense, which was the best mark of the week until the Eagles took the field on Sunday night.
Patrick Mahomes averaged 0.37 EPA per play, his highest of the season, and just his third game without an interception. Yet, he did take five sacks, but there were more than enough plays around those to keep the offense afloat.
Kansas City again leaned heavily into its 12-personnel package, with 47 percent of plays coming with two tight ends on the field. It bullied the Carolina defense with 6.8 yards per play and a 54.5 percent success rate from that grouping.
The Panthers only matched the two tight end sets with base on 15.6 percent of plays, but still, the passing was too much to handle.
BACK-TO-BACK WEEKS WITH BACK-TO-BACK SCORES FOR NOAH 😤 pic.twitter.com/LeYiTLwkkt
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 24, 2024
The biggest difference between prior Chiefs games and this one was the defense could not hold up. Bryce Young had what might have been the best game of his career, recording a 0.33 EPA per play and a number of throws that looked smooth and confident.
This throw just before the half while on the move just wasn’t in Young’s arsenal at any time during his pro career. With a defender in his face, he floated the ball perfectly on target.
DOT
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) November 24, 2024
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/4SgBIZ0iEL
Later in the game, he had this throw on third-and-8 — again with a defender right in his face.
On the 💰
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) November 24, 2024
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/rVJs2M0SXM
The biggest change in Young since his return has been a calmness under pressure. Before he was benched, Young took a sack on 29.5 percent of his pressures.
Since he returned, that has dropped to 11.8 percent. That’s the seventh-best among quarterbacks in that span. Against the Chiefs, he was sacked twice while he was pressured on 35 percent of his dropbacks and blitzed on 37.5 percent. Against the blitz, Young went 10-of-14 for 125 yards and a touchdown for 0.34 EPA per play.
Kansas City has struggled in pass defense since Jaylen Watson was lost to injury. Since Week 7, the Chiefs are 24th in EPA per play against the pass. There has not been enough pass rush — without Spag's blitzes — to make up for some of the lapses in coverage.
Without Watson, opposing offenses are having a bit more success throwing down the sidelines.
The Chiefs figured out the offense earlier in the season and through last year’s regular season because the defense was great.
That’s no longer the case, and it might need to be the offense’s turn to carry the load while the defense figures out the best path forward into the playoffs.
4. The Saquon Barkley Game
Saquon Barkley is exceeding expectations with the Philadelphia Eagles, and he had his best game of the season in a 37-20 win against the Los Angeles Rams.
Barkley had 255 yards and two touchdowns on the ground with 47 yards receiving. The Eagles were missing the explosive element in the run game last season, and boy, do they have it now. Philadelphia is first as a team in rushing EPA per play after 12 weeks and tied with the Lions for EPA per play on running back runs.
Pairing Barkley behind this line has been nearly unfair in some games this season. Barkley, when given space, can rip off a big run, and he did so against the Rams multiple times. He had a 70-yard run to start the third quarter:
Then, he had a 72-yard run late in the game.
Barkley now has five runs of at least 50 yards this season, while Derrick Henry is the only other player with more than two.
This season, Barkley is averaging 2.76 yards before contact per rush, which leads all 30 running backs with at least 100 carries on the season. His 3.48 yards after contact per rush are the third-most, as he leads the league in yards per carry (6.2) overall.
With Henry still to play on Monday night, Barkley now leads the league in rushing by 207 yards over the Ravens back. Barkley also leads the league in total EPA generated on the ground. Not only has he been explosive, but he’s also been efficient. His 0.13 EPA per rush would be equivalent to a Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow play so far this season (both averaging 0.13 EPA per play).
This is also with Barkley losing out on some of the most high-value touches at the goal line because Jalen Hurts takes those carries with the Tush Push.
Barkley's 1,392 rushing yards are already a career-high, and it’s possible we could be talking about bigger things in Barkley’s future. The only running back since 2000 to have more rushing yards through 12 weeks was Chris Johnson’s 1,396 in 2009 when he ran for 2,006 yards.
Most Rushing Yards Through Week 12, Since 2000 (per TruMedia)
Adrian Peterson only had 1,236 rushing yards through Week 12 in 2012 when he rushed for 2,097 yards and won MVP. Barkley’s 16-game pace would put him at 2,025 rushing yards, and he’ll get an extra game in an attempt to top Eric Dickerson’s NFL record 2,105.
With MVP ballots extended to five players, Barkley is going to get consideration, even if he’s not likely to win. Christian McCaffrey finished third last season, and while it’s in a different way — McCaffrey’s impact was more through the air and how he allowed the 49ers to play — it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Barkley match that finish if he can keep up this level of play for the remainder of the season.
5. Seattle's Defense Is Breaking Through
The defense is finally clicking for the Seattle Seahawks.
A week after holding the 49ers to their lowest explosive play rate in the Kyle Shanahan era, the Seahawks held down a Cardinals offense that had been clicking in a 16-6 win against the division rival to take the lead in the NFC West.
Seattle’s wholesale change at linebacker has paid off. Ernest Jones has been solid in coverage and remains a great downhill player, especially as a blitzer. He’s already sixth on the team in tackles that produce positive play of the defense, and he’s made a tackle on 33.3 percent of his run defense snaps since he’s been a Seahawk.
The athleticism has been on display all over the defense. On the biggest swing of the game against the Cardinals, Devin Witherspoon spun away from a block and chased down Kyler Murray to force a bad overthrow that turned into a Coby Bryant pick-6.
Seattle’s interior defensive line has also broken through. Leonard Williams had seven pressures against the Cardinals, and De’Mont Jones had four. Kyler Murray was sacked five times and could not create like he’s done for most of this season.
Williams was a force in this game, winning multiple ways along the defensive line. He was able to fight through double teams and win.
BIG CAT. 😤 pic.twitter.com/ICpNp4iJIM
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 24, 2024
Then, watch him on a third-and-14 sack as he lines up way wide and flies around the edge.
LEO IS ON ONE. pic.twitter.com/jHVcbDVrlz
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 24, 2024
As the pass defense has improved, the run defense has, too. James Conner had seven carries for eight yards, and Trey Benson was Arizona’s leading rusher with 18 on four carries.
The pieces have been put into place for this defense to look more like it was expected to, given Macdonald’s success in Baltimore. This team is creating pressure and not giving up big gains on the ground. The run fits from the defensive line penetration, and the linebackers behind them are leaps and bounds better than what Seattle started with this season.
With the win, the Seahawks now lead the division and, at 6-5, sit as the No. 3 seed in the NFC. The West is still tight with every team no team worse than 5-6. Now, with a defense that can take over games, the Seahawks will be a much bigger factor than they looked like they might be a few weeks ago.
However, The Upshot’s model gives the Seahawks a 26 percent chance of making the playoffs due to upcoming games against the Cardinals, Packers, and Vikings in Weeks 14, 15, and 16.
6. What Happened in Washington-Dallas?
The fourth quarter of Cowboys-Commanders started with a 10-9 Dallas lead, and the two teams traded punts. And then what happened?
After the Dallas Cowboys scored a touchdown to go up 20-9, the Washington Commanders came back with a touchdown drive of their own and a 2-point conversion to make it a three-point game. On the ensuing kickoff, KaVonte Turpin muffed the catch but returned the kick 99 yards for a touchdown with under three minutes left.
Washington kicked a field goal on the next drive — a 51-yarder on second-and-10 — and held Dallas to a three-and-out for -1 yard on the following drive. When the Commanders got the ball back, Jayden Daniels found Terry McLaurin for an 86-yard touchdown to bring Washington within an extra point of a tie.
And then this happened:
And then, on the onside kick attempt, the Cowboys returned that for a touchdown.
Daniels got one more chance with the ball for another Hail Mary attempt, but it was intercepted.
This was a concerning game for the Commanders on both sides of the ball after coming off their two worst games of the season against the Steelers and Eagles.
Across the first three quarters, Daniels averaged 0.46 EPA per play while completing 54.5 percent of his passes. He was in empty on 30.8 percent of those dropbacks but didn’t have the escapability that had lifted this offense earlier in the season. Through three quarters, he had a 3.8 percent scramble rate and was sacked on a third of his pressures while there were zeo explosive passes.
The Cowboys played man on 72.7 percent of third downs, and Washington did not have the answers or receiving talent to beat it. On third downs, Daniels went 0-for-7 as a passer and did not have a scramble.
He was better as a designed runner, finishing with 74 yards and a touchdown on the ground, but his willingness to take off on his own was still lacking. We’re now in concerning territory for whether Washington can flip the switch to improve with more answers going forward.
7. Bucs Roll Giants
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did whatever they wanted on both sides of the ball in a 30-7 win against the Giants. Baker Mayfield averaged 0.45 EPA per play and 9.8 yards per attempt for an 86.7 QBR.
There were 11 different Buccaneers with a catch in the game. Mike Evans had five catches and 68 yards in his return to the lineup, and the screen game kept working with Bucky Irving.
Early in the game, Tampa Bay went to more pistol sets to the under-center play-action game alive but also had the quarterback further behind an offensive line that was missing Tristan Wirfs. They used it on 7.7 percent of snaps in the first half after only using it 2.7 percent of the time through Week 11. Mayfield was barely pressured — 16.7 percent of the time — and he did not take a sack in the game.
Mayfield also had a 10-yard scramble for a touchdown.
On the other side of the ball, Tommy DeVito had -1.01 EPA per play and a 9.1 percent success rate in the first half as the Giants trailed 23-0.
Tampa Bay is now just a game back of Atlanta in the NFC South, though the Falcons swept the Buccaneers. Thanks to an easy schedule that includes the Panthers twice, the Raiders, Cowboys, and Saints with one tough game against the Chargers, this team is still alive for a playoff spot.
8. Chart of the day
The Dolphins haven’t had the wild schematic changeup this season. What has changed since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup is the emergence of a legitimate third-receiving threat in Jonnu Smith. That’s given the offense an outlet when defenses are focusing on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Miami started peppering Smith early in the game, but that eventually helped open up Waddle, who caught five passes for 94 yards in the second quarter. Smith even played a part in his touchdown.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins used motion on 93.7 percent of plays against the Patriots. This is forming into an offense that could be dangerous as more pieces come together.
9. Play of the day
As the Denver Broncos have figured out the offense more with each passing week, one of the most fun elements has been the inclusion of Marvin Mims in schemed-up looks. Mims, a 2023 second-round pick, had a screen for a touchdown last week and now has one play of 20 or more yards in each of the past two weeks.
Putting Mims in the backfield and running him on a swing pass into space out of pistol on a third down is a perfect way to use his speed and create a big play.
Bo Nix agreed.
10. Houston, do we have a problem?
The 7-5 Houston Texans might be the most frustrating team in the league. Although they have a 93 percent chance of making the playoffs, nothing about this team feels great at the moment.
Houston had a reliable defense that stifled Josh Allen and Jared Goff but just allowed Will Levis to complete 18-of-24 passes for 278 yards (11.8 yards per attempt). Levis was sacked eight times and averaged -0.23 EPA per play because of it, but the big plays allowed the Titans to come away with a 32-27 victory.
The weight of carrying the offense has clearly affected C.J. Stroud. The Texans had a 21.6 percent explosive pass rate in Week 12, just 0.1 percent behind the Eagles for the highest rate in the league in Week 12. But unlike the Eagles, who matched that with some explosive runs, the Texans had a zero percent explosive run rate. Houston had a 31 percent success rate on the ground, the second-worst in the league in Week 12.
It’s the same story, and it’s gotten tiring. The Texans averaged 9.2 yards to go on third down against the Titans. For the season, they’ve averaged 8.2 yards to go, which is 31st and better than only the Seahawks at 8.5.
The quarterback is still playing well overall, but when he feels like he can’t make a mistake or the offense will fail, he tends to make mistakes because he’s trying to make everything perfect.
This is where the Texans are and where they have been, which makes it hard to believe there will be any meaningful change going forward.
