NFL Analysis
11/18/24
22 min read
1st & 10 Week 11: Bills Beat Chiefs, Steelers Defense, Justin Herbert & More
NFL Week 11 was fun. The average EPA per play for quarterbacks was 0.10 this week, an incredible figure for those who believe no quarterbacks get developed, and the quality of play is poor. There was a lot to get into this week, so let’s get there.
Each week, 1st & 10 will bring you a Monday morning an in-depth breakdown of everything you need to know from Sunday’s slate of games. We’ll fill this column with stats, film, and plenty of words to keep you covered on anything you might have missed or want to dive deeper into from Sunday.
All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise
1st & 10 NFL Week 11
1. Bills Defeat The Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have fallen.
Even at 9-0, the Chiefs were not a perfect team, but they did enough to turn it on when it mattered in high-leverage situations — mainly third downs and the fourth quarter — to pull out wins this season. The Buffalo Bills were going to be their toughest matchup and most likely regular-season loss, if there was one, and Buffalo held up in a 30-21 win.
Part of how the Bills did this was by playing their game, especially on defense, and not allowing the Chiefs to dictate the terms of play. Kansas City has been playing in heavier personnel and forcing defenses to make a decision of how to play it with either an extra linebacker or staying in nickel.
The Chiefs have gotten teams to defend them in base personnel on 20 percent of their snaps through Week 10, and Kansas City has a 57.1 percent pass success rate while doing so. The Bills are a nickel defense, and they stuck with that as Buffalo did not play a single snap in base against the Chiefs, even though Kansas City played in 12 personnel on 42.6 percent of their snaps.
Instead, the changeup was for the Bills to go smaller, especially on third down, with a 50-50 split between nickel and dime personnel.
Buffalo has used more dime personnel this season (20.1 percent, the third-highest rate in the league) and stuck with it, using it on 17 percent of its snaps against Kansas City.
On five plays in dime on third down, the Bills allowed one first down, two sacks, and two short completions on third-and-long.
Patrick Mahomes was in empty on 42.9 percent of his third down dropbacks, and the Bills sold out against the pass. The Bills played Drop-8 on 28.6 percent of Mahomes’ third-down dropbacks, a new wrinkle to the most varied pass-rush plan the Bills have used against Mahomes under Sean McDermott.
It was a tough day for Mahomes, who started the game with an interception after avoiding pressure, stepping up, still getting hit, and sailing a pass over the head of Noah Gray.
Mahomes still had a 54.3 percent success rate, which was his third-highest of the season, but there was a lack of explosives, a lack of third down creation, and enough negative plays to force the Chiefs off the field.
The Chiefs came into this game hoping to take advantage of speed and opening up the passing offense with rookie Xavier Worthy involved early. There could have been a huge play down the field, but Worthy somehow turned this into an incompletion by failing to stay in bounds at the start of the second quarter.
The Bills needed only to slow the Chiefs down on offense, while Josh Allen had one of his most impressive performances of the season. Allen averaged 0.19 EPA per play and got the ball out in under 2.5 seconds on average, yet he was still pressured on 40 percent of his dropbacks.
When pressured, Allen averaged 0.28 EPA per play and did not take a sack, though he did throw an interception. Buffalo always looked like it had a plan on offense
The Bills’ passing game has slowly morphed into a cohesive unit, with the receivers finding their roles. Keon Coleman was still out in this game, but Amari Cooper returned to the lineup. His presence gives Buffalo something they did not have — the ability to separate on the outside and win 1-on-1s.
Cooper had a 30-yard catch on a third-and-6 in the first quarter. Buffalo used motion and middle-of-the-field routes from Dawson Knox and Khalil Shakir to keep the sideline clear for Cooper, who got behind cornerback Nazeeh Johnson.
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) November 18, 2024
Then, in the second quarter, the Bills had Cooper matched up across from Johnson again and had him run a double move. That created space for Allen to get the ball out against the blitz for a gain of 25.
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) November 18, 2024
Both of those Cooper catches set up touchdown runs from James Cook.
Khalil Shakir led the way with 70 yards and remains the go-to receiver who can be a big-play threat with yards after the catch at any point. Curtis Samuel even got involved with 58 yards and a touchdown that highlighted how well the Bills are schemed offensively at the moment.
With the Chiefs playing man coverage in the red zone (the Chiefs played man on 42.9 percent of red zone plays through Week 10), the Bills sent Samuel on a crosser underneath a deeper one from Mack Hollins on the other side. It created a natural pick, and Hollins took out Johnson in the middle of the field, leaving Samuel a clear path to the end zone.
Perfect time for Curtis Samuel's first touchdown as a BUFFALO BILL!
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 17, 2024
📺: @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/OXUcXrDBIy
With such well-designed plays and a quarterback who can go hero mode at any time, this Bills offense is truly starting to click. The hero mode was activated late in the game when Allen clinched the game on fourth-and-2 with a 26-yard touchdown run that gave the Bills the final 30-21 margin.
ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?!
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 18, 2024
📺: @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/HjhmBiLbcr
The Bills are now just a game back of the Chiefs for the first seed in the AFC, though Kansas City’s path remains easier with the game advantage.
These teams could be destined to meet in the playoffs again, and as they evolve, it likely won’t look anything like what we just saw on Sunday. Though, it should be just as close and entertaining.
2. The Steelers Defense Held The Ravens Down
The Pittsburgh Steelers did not score a touchdown, and they still beat the Ravens.
In the middle of hard-fought defensive battles in previous AFC North meetings, that might not have been out of the ordinary for these two, but that is not an expected result against the 2024 Ravens, with MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson playing the best football of his career.
Yet, the Steelers came away with an impressive 18-16 victory, which showed how real and dangerous this defense can be.
During the past two weeks, the Steelers have leaned into man coverage against mobile quarterbacks. That typically has the defenders turning their back to the quarterback and leaving space for him to run, but Pittsburgh matches the coverage with a pass rush that can get home and a second level prepared for whenever the quarterback tries to leave the pocket.
The Steelers played man on about 41 percent of snaps against the Ravens, and Jackson averaged -0.36 EPA per play against it. When Jackson tried to break the pocket, there were no easy options. On plays outside of the pocket, Jackson was 2-of-5 for just 27 yards and a sack. His average depth of target outside of the pocket was 15.4 yards, but his average depth of completion was just 1.0.
Overall, Jackson completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes and had a completion percentage over expected of -13.8 percent, per Next Gen Stats.
Jackson was pressured on 40 percent of his dropbacks, and while the Ravens did whatever they could to stop T.J. Watt from getting to the passer…
…there were other Steelers ready to take advantage of the 1-on-1 opportunities. Watt only had a 10.3 percent pressure rate (see above for the typical play against him), but Cameron Hayward and Nick Herbig each had four pressures.
There were also the types of mistakes that the Ravens have seen far too often in their bad games—and even in their good ones. Drops and 12 penalties cost the Ravens 80 yards.
The Ravens still hit on some of their explosive plays and had the sixth-highest explosive play rate of the week (16.7 percent) but could not consistently move the ball or finish drives when they did.
Justin Tucker has become a liability and is having the worst season of his career. Tucker missed two field goals against the Steelers (a six-point swing in a two-point loss) and has now converted 72.7 percent of his field goal attempts this season. That rate is the fifth-worst among kickers who have at least 10 attempts in 2024.
Baltimore still came back and had a chance to tie with a 2-point conversion after a 16-yard touchdown to Zay Flowers. When Baltimore came out for its two-point play, Mike Tomlin called a timeout just before the snap. It looked like it might have been a jump pass.
When the Ravens came back from the timeout, the play was different and did not look smooth. Initially, it looked like a quarterback run, but when Jackson ran from the pocket, he looked as if he wanted to throw, but no receivers seemed prepared.
With space running out, Jackson had to make an effort toward the goal line himself and was stopped short.
Tomlin played as big of a role in that stop as the defense.
The Steelers now have a 1.5-game lead over the Ravens for the division lead. Baltimore dropped to the sixth seed in the AFC despite looking like one of the best teams in the league for most of the season.
Pittsburgh’s aggressive defense, tied with just a few big plays hitting from Russell Wilson on offense, can be a formula that forces any opponent into the muck to play a Steelers-type of football game, and Pittsburgh can always come out victorious in that slugfest.
3. The Chargers Pulled Out A Close Win
There’s really no other place to start than the win probability chart here. The Los Angeles Chargers had control of this game early, and then the Bengals fought their way back, as Justin Herbert went from perfect in the first half to a typical Chargers offensive outing in the second.
Herbert came out firing, even better than he looked last week. In the first half, Herbert was 10-of-14 for 183 yards and two touchdowns. But in the second half, he went 7-of-22.
Herbert made some throws in the first half. It started early with a 29-yard touchdown to Will Dissly.
Then there was the touchdown to Quentin Johnston in the second quarter as he moved to his right, ran toward the line of scrimmage, and fired to the left side of the field.
Scrambling is still a part of Herbert’s game, and it’s hard to understate how much his willingness to take off and make plays with his legs raises the floor of the offense. Herbert scrambled on 9.8 percent of his dropbacks, the eighth-highest rate of his career. He doesn’t have to set career highs every week for that to make a difference.
Not to be outdone, Joe Burrow started with -0.20 EPA per play in the first half but came back with 0.35 EPA per play in the second half as his aDOT rose from 5.4 to 12.7. Burrow was more aggressive in challenging the Chargers’ cornerbacks down the field and had trust in Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase to make plays.
Burrow did not attempt a deep pass in the first half but threw at least 20 air yards on 21.2 percent of his second-half attempts. Even if the Chargers’ cornerbacks have been playing well above expectation, it’s still the weakest part of the defense that has been one of the league’s best.
Cincinnati had multiple opportunities to take the lead but missed two short field goals on the drives following the game-tying touchdown while holding the Chargers to punts in between.
Herbert went into hero mode on the final drive, and his second-and-10 throw to Ladd McConkey with a defender coming into his face is one of the most impressive throws he’s ever made.
Then, with 18 seconds left, J.K. Dobbins found room on a handoff and scored the go-ahead touchdown.
There’s a strong argument to be made that Dobbins should have gone down before the end zone and let the Chargers milk the last of the clock before a game-winning field goal attempt. But it’s also hard to fault Dobbins for taking the guaranteed touchdown while the Bengals only had one timeout remaining.
Going down was probably the ideal move, but scoring was not wrong.
The Chargers are now 7-3 with the fourth-best point differential in the NFL. The Bengals might have just seen their season end. At 4-7, they’re the 10th seed entering their bye. There are still two games against the Steelers and one against the Broncos, but the other games against the Cowboys, Titans, and Browns are all winnable.
It’s a tough way for this team to potentially go out, especially with questions as to what the future of this team will look like. Is the offensive production with Tee Higgins on the field enough evidence to pay him this offseason, too? Or will the Bengals move on and search for that complement to Chase while continuing to invest in the defense?
4. Caleb Looked Good, But The Bears Blew The Game
Games between the Packers and Bears are usually highly anticipated — the historic rivalry does not always have teams of equal quality on each side in these meetings — but this one really carried weight.
The Packers were viewed as a potential sleeper Super Bowl team heading into the year and have managed injuries to stay as a contender. The Bears had high expectations after finishing last season strong on offense and adding Caleb Williams as the first overall pick.
But the Bears came into this game fresh off firing their offensive coordinator, and Chicago’s season could hinge on how the Bears played under new coordinator Thomas Brown.
There’s good news for the Bears. The offense looked good. Williams played loose, and that was evident by how quickly he allowed himself to scramble. Those plays were effective. When Williams was pressing during the previous three-game stretch, he was stubborn in the pocket, trying to prove he could make the right read. That often led to more negative plays.
Williams avoided the back-breaking mistakes that were issues earlier. Just 7.0 percent of Williams’ plays produced -1 EPA or worse. That’s his second-best rate of the season after the Week 5 win against the Panthers. The average for the league this season is 16.9 percent.
Against the Packers, Williams averaged 0.31 EPA per play and had a number of impressive throws. This was what was expected. But it didn’t matter because the Packers blocked a would-be game-winning field goal as time expired.
This was another execution error from the Chicago coaching staff. With 35 seconds left, the Bears got a first down at the Green Bay 30-yard line, and the Packers used their final timeout. On first down, Chicago called a run that gained two yards. The Bears then let the clock roll down until there were three seconds and called a timeout to bring on the field goal unit on second down.
That’s an overly conservative approach to settling for a 46-yard field goal. The downside to whatever risk could have occurred with trying to gain more yards on second down is outweighed by the reward of getting at least one more play to get the ball closer. It’s an execution error on par with how the Bears approached the Hail Mary and the play before it against Washington.
Jordan Love, meanwhile, played great — 0.57 EPA per play with a 59.1 percent success rate and 15.4 yards per attempt against a defense that has remained good against the pass. As he gets further removed from his injury, he looks more like the star quarterback he was expected to be before the season.
5. Stafford vs. Maye Delivered
One of the most fun quarterback matchups of the season, showcasing the past, present, and future, featured Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye in the Rams’ 28-22 win against the Patriots.
A week after the Rams had a letdown with the return of their offensive line and Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in the lineup, they bounced back with one of their best offensive performances of the season. Stafford went 18-of-27 with four passing touchdowns for 0.49 EPA per play.
The Patriots didn’t have an answer for Kupp or Nacua in coverage and didn’t do much to troubleshoot during the game. Christian Gonzalez stayed mostly to the outside, and that allowed Nacua and Kupp to do whatever they wanted on offense. The pair combined for 229 yards and saw 70.4 percent of Stafford’s targets.
Kupp had five catches from the slot for 101 yards and two touchdowns.
Even if Gonzalez had shut down one of those receivers, the Rams still had the other, and Stafford was dealing regardless.
In the loss, the Patriots still got plenty of confirmation that Maye is a guy at quarterback. Maye averaged 0.14 EPA per play with a 63 percent success rate, the best game of his career.
The passing success came while he was pressured on 39.1 percent of his dropbacks, but he’s shown the ability to handle pressure, escape, and make plays with both his arm and his legs.
Another @popshotta3 highlight for you ⬇️
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 17, 2024
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/H53AFHxUN0
The legs have become a weapon that Maye has leaned on lately.
QB keeper for the first.@DrakeMaye2 | #NEPats
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 17, 2024
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/N4g6ckAqK2
Since Week 6 when Maye became the starter, he leads the league in EPA created from scrambles. That’s helped set a floor while he’s been gradually getting more out of a passing game that hasn’t had the most reliable receiving options outside of the tight ends.
However, this was another game when Maye stood tall against a defensive line that overwhelmed the Patriots. There were 11 different Rams credited with a pressure in this game. That’s part of the formula that has helped spark this Los Angeles defense during the past few weeks. Constant pressure has gotten home — the Rams still sacked Maye three times — and that’s created enough big plays on that side of the ball while the secondary still gets worked out.
If production continues from the defensive line while the passing offense takes off with full health, the now 5-5 Rams could still be very alive in the NFC playoff picture.
6. All the ways the Lions won
The Detroit Lions scored 52 points in a blowout win against the Jacksonville Jaguars in what could have been Doug Pederson’s last game as Jaguars head coach. Let’s quickly run down how this game stands out as one of the best offensive performances we’ve seen in the past 25 years.
The Lions averaged 4.1 EPA per drive. That’s the third-best single game since 2000, behind the 2007 New England Patriots in Week 11 (4.7) and the 2013 New Orleans Saints in Week 10 (4.4).
Jared Goff averaged 1.21 EPA per play with a 78.8 percent success rate. That EPA per play figure is the second-best for a quarterback in a game with at least 25 dropbacks since 2000, behind only Tua Tagovailoa (1.28) in the 70-point Dolphins effort against the Broncos last season. He’s one of two quarterbacks with an EPA per play over 1.0 with at least 30 dropbacks, along with Drew Brees, who did it in back-to-back Weeks in 2013 (1.08 in Week 10 and 1.00 in Week 11).
Detroit scored a touchdown on 77.8 percent of their drives. That’s the second-highest mark behind the Week 11 Patriots game in 2007, when New England scored a touchdown on 87.5 percent of their drives against the Bills. The Patriots punted on their final drive of that game. The Lions’ non-touchdown drives resulted in a field goal and the end of the game.
The Lions averaged 71.7 yards per drive. That’s easily the highest mark in a single game since 2000. Only one other team averaged over 65. The Saints averaged 65.9 yards per drive against the Lions in Week 16 of Detroit’s winless 2008 season.
7. Seattle Showed Up
It’s been an inconsistent season for the Seattle Seahawks defense under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks haven’t gotten the right mix of players and scheme, especially on the second level, as linebackers have been moved in and out of the lineup and roster. But one of Macdonald's selling points was his success against the Shanahan/McVay style of offenses.
Well, while holding the 49ers to 17 points in a 20-17 win, that came through. The 49ers were missing George Kittle (and have been without Brandon Aiyuk), but they were held to their lowest explosive play rate in the Shanahan era, with a big play on just 3.5 percent of plays.
Lowest 49ers Explosive Play Rates Under Kyle Shanahan (per TruMedia)
Not having Kittle on the field allowed the Seahawks to succeed with nickel personnel. It was San Francisco’s second-worst game against nickel this season, with just a 35.3 percent success rate (vs. Kansas City was the worst game, at 28.6 percent).
Offensively, the Seahawks found some answers with DK Metcalf’s return opening up opportunities for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had 100 yards on 10 catches.
Geno Smith struggled with protection early in the game but had a strong fourth quarter (0.36 EPA per play and a 64.3 percent success rate), which included two big scrambles on the final drive of the game, capped with a 13-yard run for the game-winning touchdown.
The Seahawks are now 5-5, along with the 49ers and Rams, all a game behind the 6-4 Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West.
8. Chart of the day
Bo Nix easily had his best day as a pro in a 38-6 Broncos win against the Falcons. Without pressure, Nix has steadily improved this season and has been calmer in the pocket.
The Broncos have worked the offense to fit his strengths. Under pressure? That’s been a different story. But the good news is the Falcons can’t create it, and the Broncos are great at preventing it. Combine that, and you get just a 17.1 percent pressure rate on the day.
Nix only had a 4.1-yard aDOT, and his expected completion percentage was 77.6 percent, according to Next Gen Stats. He still made a couple of impressive throws and was in complete control the entire game. He still went 6-of-7 for 138 yards on throws of 11 or more air yards. He finished with 0.56 EPA per play, a 55.6 percent success rate, and he completed 84.8 percent of his passes.
9. Play of the day
This wasn’t the best play of Anthony Richardson’s day, but it was arguably the most important. Richardson led a comeback drive and had the rushing touchdown to take the lead with 46 seconds left. These are the types of plays Richardson offers that other quarterbacks don’t — especially ones currently on the Indianapolis roster.
That’s the biggest immediate difference — the Colts have a 59 percent touchdown rate inside the red zone with Richardson and 50 percent without him. That would be the difference between a team ranked 10th and 25th in the regular season.
Even on a day when Richardson still had some accuracy issues, he made a few big throws and finished with a 66.7 percent completion percentage, 272 passing yards, and 10 designed runs with two rushing touchdowns. His return to the lineup wasn’t perfect, but there are so many avenues to build around, which makes patience in developing this offense well worth it.
10. Can the Dolphins Get Back In The Race?
A few weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins were without a starting quarterback and looked like one of the worst teams in the league. Now, thanks to the Bengals loss, the 4-6 Dolphins could have a path back into the playoffs.
Miami returned to its explosive ways in a 34-19 win against the Raiders. Tua Tagovailoa averaged 0.61 EPA per play and had a 63.2 percent success rate on the day, which were the second-best marks of the week behind Jared Goff.
Tua again showed off the ability to extend and create out of structure — he was 4-of-4 for 2.70 EPA per play when outside the pocket — and both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were involved in the passing game. It was the best of all worlds.
The Dolphins are a half-game up on the Bengals and still have an easy schedule going forward. Miami still has two games against the Jets, along with the Patriots next week and the Browns in Week 17. They have the Packers and Texans on the road and host the 49ers.
It’s not the likeliest path, but this team is still alive.
